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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
Sweet looking same image we've seen for days on end. Hopefully, that SW low eventually pinches off and retrogrades under the Pac block as it joins with the Skandi ridge over the pole and pushes the PV significantly southward into an active STJ, launching winter in the south. That's what I expect to eventually happen. For now, I'm going to spend as much time tracking warmth as possible.

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I'll be honest this image probably isn't a tragedy as you get out to around D20 unless that trough in the west kicked out. Looking at the run evolution its retrograding a bit under the tilted ridge to its NW. In a perfect world the trough ends up near Hawaii the ridge is in Ak/NW Canada and the US floods with cold. But discussing a 384 hour image and extrapolating it is about as good as talking about the 20-21 nfl season today

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SD said:
I'll be honest this image probably isn't a tragedy as you get out to around D20 unless that trough in the west kicked out. Looking at the run evolution its retrograding a bit under the tilted ridge to its NW. In a perfect world the trough ends up near Hawaii the ridge is in Ak/NW Canada and the US floods with cold. But discussing a 384 hour image and extrapolating it is about as good as talking about the 20-21 nfl season today

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Agreed. On all points. There's nothing near-term worth talking about, so 384 it is. For a few days now, the GFS (in particular) has been hinting at that trough pinching and retrograding. We'll see. I think it eventually does, and plays out the way you described.
 
KyloG said:
CFS weekly...weeks 3 and 4 look good. Hopefully this moves forward.

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Its been consistent with this idea
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Wonder how far north the warm front gets today. HRRR near 80 in parts of SE NC this afternoon while the cool side sticks in the low to mid 50s

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Rain Cold said:
This is great. When the pattern turns later on, assuming we keep this going, it's going to be a big winter!
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Wh
Rain Cold said:
Week 3 doesn't look so great to me. But week 4 looks pretty ok.
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still seeing just transient shots of cold here n there for what i see long term even ... fingers crossed
 
SD said:
Wonder how far north the warm front gets today. HRRR near 80 in parts of SE NC this afternoon while the cool side sticks in the low to mid 50s

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Hmmm history tells me, with many areas socked it and temps in the mid - upper 40's currently, that it doesn't make it as far as projected. Just an old timer's guess
 
It’s kind of hard to ignore the possibility that the MJO may attenuate or collapse altogether once it reaches the WP given the cold water that’s showing up there now. Modoki ninos like the one trying to develop now usually lead to enhanced MJO activity in the Maritime Continent and suppression in the WP with enhancement again in the WHEM. The +IOD starts to become our best friend near the end of winter as seasonal shifts in the monsoon circulation completely reverse the downstream response over N America.
Thus W Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar starts to become our best friend and favors cold here unlike in Dec when it’s usually enticing warmth.

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metwannabe said:
3K NAM almost interesting here Saturday night, a little thunder maybe at least.... too bad bl is way too warm

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I think I'm pretty close here to see something. All it takes is one strong convective snow shower or two and it can put down a nice dusting.
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ForsythSnow said:
I think I'm pretty close here to see something. All it takes is one strong convective snow shower or two and it can put down a nice dusting.
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I'm sort of surprised this isn't getting more attention from the Tn/Al/NGa crowd. Steep lapse rates, strong upper level energy, dgz around h8/85, moisture in the dgz. Surface temps are kind of meh 35-42 but you should be able to build some nice convective clouds and scattered rain/snow showers and chances are they would be more snow than rain given the warm layer is so shallow

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SD said:
I'm sort of surprised this isn't getting more attention from the Tn/Al/NGa crowd. Steep lapse rates, strong upper level energy, dgz around h8/85, moisture in the dgz. Surface temps are kind of meh 35-42 but you should be able to build some nice convective clouds and scattered rain/snow showers and chances are they would be more snow than rain given the warm layer is so shallow

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I've seen what convective snow showers can do once here before. I can't remember the setup but I can find the day. Timing is different (afternoon vs evening) but the components look to be there. With high enough rates we can get it to the surface in the upper 30s.
 
NE Georgia counties usually get a dusting with this type of setup. Towns, Rabun, Union, Habersham, etc. could get something on their lawns Saturday night. Unfortunately, I doubt it will make it down to us Northern Atlanta burbs members though.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I've seen what convective snow showers can do once here before. I can't remember the setup but I can find the day. Timing is different (afternoon vs evening) but the components look to be there. With high enough rates we can get it to the surface in the upper 30s.
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I looked back and this was on Feb 18, 2015, just days after the ice storm here. Looks like a good dusting from all of it.
 
The GEFS has maintained its MJO 4/5 peak prediction at ~3 while the EPS has increased theirs from 2.5 yesterday to nearly 3 today. A peak of 3.0 would make it the 4th highest amp of 4/5 in winter on record (back to 1975). The 2 models are predicting a duration in 4/5 of 10-12 days ending ~1/17. Combine this MJO with a strong -PNA/+AO, a mainly +NAO, and a modest -AAM that is restarting today as well as a mainly +EPO and you have all of the makings for a strong torch to dominate the next 2 weeks. I expect to see several days in the SE with anomalies of +15+ within a period having most days AN. The entire 10-12 days will probably average close to 10+ AN, close to norms in mid March!

GEFS:
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EPS:
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ForsythSnow said:
I've seen what convective snow showers can do once here before. I can't remember the setup but I can find the day. Timing is different (afternoon vs evening) but the components look to be there. With high enough rates we can get it to the surface in the upper 30s.
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They can be a lot of fun. You guys setup is different than when we get these around here usually we have big dew point depressions below the moist layer and lose a lot of the precip to evaporation so we just get windy flurries. Pulling some soundings out of Al/Ga tomorrow the profiles are full of dry air below the moist layer and are saturated. Makes me concerned that you may fill up with a bunch of stratocu but anything that gets going would be able to get to the surface right away

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