The precip frames haven’t loaded yet, but this looks interesting.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Nothing crazy, lots of things I would like to see changed, but nice little event across Costal SE.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Not concerned about amounts or even temps right now. We have multiple runs showing an overrunning event. Follow the trends.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I may not be paying close enough attention to the OP (which is probably a good thing), but that's the first time I think something has actually appeared on the operational. Comes shortly after the ridge gets beaten back big time.
Despite that, there have been some interesting members on the GEFS lately around this time period. Lets get this pattern change within about a week first!
Despite that, there have been some interesting members on the GEFS lately around this time period. Lets get this pattern change within about a week first!
Some icy members on the GEFS
NCSNOW
Member
Next Saturday keeps trending colder n colder. Interested to see how this evolves next few days.
GEFS probably is going to look really good.
Yep we can’t look past threats like that any threat can trend in the short range and when we’re talking about CAD events it can always trend colder and in that case can turn out to be a bigger deal than we think out of no where
I have extreme doubts for that system. No other model but a couple members on the American suite show anything, plus that is relying on HP wrapping around a low around the Great Lakes.
Yeah I was just looking over the members and I know it’s after hr 240 but there are some beastly members. Things just continue to look better let’s see how the EPS comes in it looked good earlier let’s see if they continue to get better as they figure out this progressive pattern.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS looks darn good close to the same time period.
That's the sound of me getting sucked in again on those ensembles.
That's the sound of me getting sucked in again on those ensembles.
Agreed. Although I do believe that preliminary system will have big ramifications on the one behind it. I’d like to see areas as far south as VA get in on some ZR with wave #1
Only bc I know you guys want to see it..Ollie’s maps will be much prettier 
I would take that and cash out the winter. LmaoNothing crazy, lots of things I would like to see changed, but nice little event across Costal SE.
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Yes although chance is low all I am saying is we can’t lose sight of it cause sometimes these type of systems like to sneak up on us as we approach them
Just took a peak at the Gfs ensembles for wave two ... good lord much more agreement there that a large scale system could be effecting the south east ... that looks like it could be the fun one we are going to be heavily tracking in the next week ... the big take away is the amount of support for a large system at the same time period grew substantially I would say
Usually a system conducive of wintry precip in Central TX and LA translates well downstream for the Carolinas for whatever reason.. if only this weren’t 10+ days out still...
GEFS Mean:
Graphics 1 and 2 (Include Sleet) 330hrs
More realistic snowfall Mean, that takes in only Snow.
Graphics 1 and 2 (Include Sleet) 330hrs
More realistic snowfall Mean, that takes in only Snow.
Also, I finally have hires maps from 06z’s run. I plan on posting it in my archive thread tomorrow when I get a chance.
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Looks like the Canadian model was heading for glory for a lot of us in the southeast at the end of the run. Storm forming in Texas and plenty of cold air in place for a lot of us.
I wouldn’t call it a storm/large scale system yet, there’s still a big spread in timing so it’s just storms corresponding to the better pattern on ENS member ATM, there’s definitely a better pattern coming up tho, if there’s one signal, it’s a signal of CAD
I just peaked at the EPS as well on tidbits and it supports large amount of blocking in the Arctic by hour 240 .. talk about our friend -NAO .. if we didn’t think we’d see her this winter we’d be dashingly wrong
And also the beautiful +PNA ridge that pops is just ideal
And also the beautiful +PNA ridge that pops is just ideal
Not far off for an upslope freezing rain/drizzle earlier Saturday than what is shown..can see Georgia/SC trying to throw out some cold rain but it disappears before entering the Charlotte metro. This does not include precip from the west approaching.
Temp wise would support northern piedmont counties north of Winston, foothills/mtns. But upslope could trend it cooler with the right timing.
ATLwxfan
Member
Ugly GFS run this AM. Minimal cold. Must be a blip.
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Now is an important time to look at the ensembles .. and if you look at the 06z GEFS ensembles .. you’d see why the operational is a blip for sure
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Some of those members bring a lot of snow to the southeast. Still some meh members mixed in.
There's a little noise with the "first potential" around D8-9. But then the mean is beautiful around D10 and especially through the end of the run. Mountains and NW Piedmont of NC approaching 8 inches. Of course this shows snow and ice so obviously not all snow.
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packfan98
Moderator
Hints of -NAO blocking showing up. Even if it's temporary, it could aid in a great, SLOW moving storm track...
Legitimate tornado threat last night for Dallas Fort Worth area, this morning there is snow & sleet just NW of the city. Crazy stuff.
We keep waiting for the Rug to be pulled but I’ll be honest ... it looks like we’re stapling the rug to the ground
Yep were several areas last night under a tornado watch and winter storm warning, dynamic system
Interestingly enough we saw another high 06z GEFS model run. (Not as high as 06z yesterday though)
The Euro also had a large Jump in the Mean. Some big dogs mixed in
The Euro also had a large Jump in the Mean. Some big dogs mixed in
Wow gotta like that look. Nice ridge bridge over the top from Europe, through Greenland and Northwest territories and then down the west coast. If correct that is $$$
Storm5
Member
Finally some agreement
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One difference between the EPS/GEFS is the GEFS has a much stronger Npac low as seen above in Storms post. Will be interesting to see how that unfolds with the EPS.
Retrogression of west coast trough
Retrogression of west coast trough