Gfs looks very ridge happy near AK near D10. Building pressures up there too
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pivotal weather now has point and click Euro soundings. Definitely a game changer!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...at_ecmwf&rh=2020010200&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...at_ecmwf&rh=2020010200&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
That is a game changer. Thanks for pointing this out
Hunting around for something positive in the LR and only thing I can say is at least the next week is just a partial torch and maybe just maybe if the EPS is close we might start to see some help from the Atlantic mid month or so....
This is great. When the pattern turns later on, assuming we keep this going, it's going to be a big winter!
Trend is good. At least it may not hurt us as bad.
The ends of the gefs and geps still show how to get out of the ugly or start the process too bad the out is still at the end of the run
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Yeah, I was noticing that. I suppose it's got to start there if it's ultimately going to start at all. What I'm (and I'm sure we all are) going to be looking for is some sustainability to that and for it to move forward. But it's encouraging to see. The good thing is that usually when you're at peak bad, anything looks better and offers reason for hope.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A trough starts to develop east of Japan on the EPS & GEFS near the ends of their runs as the MJO starts to move into the Western Pacific and begins the process of extending the Pacific jet. Barring something crazy (like said MJO not actually reaching the West-Central Pacific as the JMA shows), this process should continue during the 3rd and 4th weeks of January, eventually dislodging the Aleutian ridge poleward in that time.
Well last nights 00z cfs was quite lit for the south east after this pattern change around the last week of January
Let’s hope this thinking isn’t going to verify for the last half of the month:
“The 11-15 Day pattern discussed above may have some staying power
into the latter part of January from a historical perspective. The maps on
right shows 500H and temperature anomalies for analogs from CPC based on the GFS Ensemble Day 11 pushed forward for the 16-30 Day period. These analogs suggest a continued strong –PNA and +EPO signal, implying a continuation of above normal temperatures across the eastern half and belows in the Southwest.” from Maxar
Any thoughts about this? I know many will want to dismiss this simply because it goes against what they want to happen. And had this said the opposite, those same folks would be in total agreement and maybe even give a “like” to it.
“The 11-15 Day pattern discussed above may have some staying power
into the latter part of January from a historical perspective. The maps on
right shows 500H and temperature anomalies for analogs from CPC based on the GFS Ensemble Day 11 pushed forward for the 16-30 Day period. These analogs suggest a continued strong –PNA and +EPO signal, implying a continuation of above normal temperatures across the eastern half and belows in the Southwest.” from Maxar
Any thoughts about this? I know many will want to dismiss this simply because it goes against what they want to happen. And had this said the opposite, those same folks would be in total agreement and maybe even give a “like” to it.
So this is assuming the GEFS are correct 11-15 days out?
The GEFS has a -EPO/+PNA bias. If it didn’t, I might not give much weight to these analogs. But even with that bias, it is still predicting a -PNA/+EPO pretty far out in the forecast. So, I think this should be strongly considered as a realistic possibility with the hope it is wrong.
It's not what I want to hear either. But it's what I've expected for 2 weeks now. I'm no met but I've been watching patterns for a long time. This pattern more often than not has staying power. We can find analogs to suggest a flip, but if one digs I'm sure there are way more years that didn't flip. The nightmare 11-12 comes to mind.
Maybe they'll be right. However, I'm starting to develop an opinion that while analogs provide some value, it might be less than we think. I've seen lots of well-reasoned analogs show why a favorable pattern should move into place that have failed to work out. It seems like only analogs that show warm have a way of working out. I wonder why that is? Maybe it's less about them being good analogs and more about the fact that we're just tilted to warm now.
I don't know how useful analogs really are anymore. I think if you just lean warm, you're going to end up mostly right, which makes it look like the warm analogs you rolled out are right on the money. Now, after reading all of that, it seems somewhat paradoxical, maybe even nonsensical. But I'll post it anyway and let the chips fall.
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Half the analogs are good and half suck. The sucky ones suck a lot.
Good: 07, 89, 89, 00, 09
