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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Chazwin said:
Yeah, the Arctic blast of January 2018 gave me low of 2 above with no snowcover. Thirty miles to our east had 3 inches on the ground and got down to minus 3.
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Same event I'm talking about I'm sure. Here in Tennessee it turned cold on Christmas day December 2017 and stayed cold to very cold into January. It was cold and dry for the first 8 days of the month highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. We had lows of 1, 0 and 3 nights below 0 in that time frame. We had a trace of snow in the 15 day period from December 25th to Jan 8th. 14 of the 15 days
saw 0.00 precip.

If finally got to 33 on January 9th and to add insult to injury, it rained.
 
John1122 said:
Same event I'm talking about I'm sure. Here in Tennessee it turned cold on Christmas day December 2017 and stayed cold to very cold into January. It was cold and dry for the first 8 days of the month highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. We had lows of 1, 0 and 3 nights below 0 in that time frame. We had a trace of snow in the 15 day period from December 25th to Jan 8th. 14 of the 15 days
saw 0.00 precip.

If finally got to 33 on January 9th and to add insult to injury, it rained.
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Chattanooga only got down to 8 during that snap, and .3 inches of snow. What a sad waste of sustained cold that was.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
How do this correlate with snow?
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Who knows. It's sorta like thunder in winter means snow in a few days. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Here, ice crystals aloft can correlate to an impending storm system. That's where the best correlation is, as opposed to precipitation type.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Less of a cold press thru HR 192


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Yeah that’s a miller B pattern at best for that first system. I’m not even remotely interested. Let’s see if we can step it down to a classic Miller A setup later in the run
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png
Wait!! There's more
 
Jan 22. Does this coincide with the projected MJO phase 7?
 
Well GFS is drunk. Scary thing is, something like this could happen with overrunning and Arctic Air Nearby. I think Jan 2014?
 
Something is coming. I can almost put the Jimmy H stamp of approval on that. I don’t like the idea of Western and Eastern portions getting in on the same system though. Hard to do. I’m feeling a Miller A vibe w this type of setup. Big Nor’easter if you want my early super weenie hut jr predictionC18D825A-52AB-4288-8013-6426994BD191.png
 
What's coming is probably a run of the mill arctic front giving us teens at night and 30s during the day for a few days.. Spits of snow, and lots of broken hearts.. :)
 
SETNwx said:
What's coming is probably a run of the mill arctic front giving us teens at night and 30s during the day for a few days.. Spits of snow, and lots of broken hearts.. :)
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This cold is more than just a few days.
 
GaWx said:
Uh oh, so far the 0Z GEFS is quite a bit warmer. Let's see what the rest of the run shows and most importantly what the EPS shows.
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- So,. the 0Z GEFs was much warmer 1/15-20 and then it was much colder 1/22-25. Let's hope it isn't teasing us again and that it doesn't start to slip away.
- It is vital that those not staying up for the Euro suite set their Euro alarms. We have a hugely important run tonight that needs your undivided attention.
- Here is part of the colder part of the run...i.e., late:
1578634305162.png



1578634248070.png
 
Gefs members does go crazy with the winter storm that the 0z gfs showed. If it were one artic coming I be worried about moderation, but there's two artics, so I'm more confident with some deep cold coming. I'm not concerned about a storm atm, it will come.
 
Chattanooga stays below freezing on the 0z GFS for almost 5 days, Jan 20-25th. See if this has legs in the coming days. I say game on (for extended cold at least) if we're seeing similar outcomes 3 days from now. EPO forecast looks to be there, all the other major indices are trying too: 1578635558849.png
 
Wow I’m surprised the board is going bananas right now .. operational runs have really turned the tables tonight to now seeing some big time storms .. and even operational runs all day have hinted at the great pattern but as I said earlier we need to wait for some wiggle to come into play .. 00z made that adjustment and you see what it can produce .. that’s the type of thing we are talking about long period of wave after wave where if only one hits it ends up being a big time event for many .. I would continue to think we see similar model outputs in the future .. this is the time folks this is when you should be excited .. NO MORE FALSE HOPE ALL SIGNS ARE NOW POINTING TO WINTER AND WINTER IN A BIG WAY LETS REAL THIS BEAUTIFUL BODACIOUS BEAST IN .. and then let’s rinse and repeat
 
Honestly the Gfs was the perfect example tonight on how we can get the massive arctic plunge and still keep that beautiful STJ going like it has been all winter THIS IS WHAT WERE TALKING ABLUT FOLKS only takes one system to set up just right and it looks like that could be an easy task with multiple systems just being spit out one after another .. only takes one of them to match right and BOOM you get your BIG DOG
 
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