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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jon said:
HM with some not so great thoughts this morning on why we’ve been stuck in these warm winters...
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It’s difficult to determine his underlying message with his tweets but none of this sounded positive and it sounded like it was “what went wrong” with this winter. Specifically the thought on the EPO and the paradigm shift. But, again that’s my interpretation and have no clue what his real intent was.
 
KyloG said:
It’s difficult to determine his underlying message with his tweets but none of this sounded positive and it sounded like it was “what went wrong” with this winter. Specifically the thought on the EPO and the paradigm shift. But, again that’s my interpretation and have no clue what his real intent was.
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He basically says Australia’s summer is during our winter. November is cooler there, so the MJO isn’t as bad through Mid-December. Although, due to GW, the Australian ocean has warmed, making the warmer phases worse, keeping us warmer during the winter. By the time it cools, we’re in late March or April.
 
Im all about punting,throwing in th he towel etc for Jan. One caveat that is preventing this is jan 2000 redux. Got about a 12 day window in a horrific pattern. I see possibility of enough pv dislodge and cold in western Canada, to hold out hope some rabbit in the hat shuffeling gets it into our side of the continent Jan 18-Jan 30. No way banking on a 180 flip and favorable pattern salvaging last 6 weeks of winter. Just a 10 to 12 day blip. Eitheir all that cold just stays out west late month and becomes stale or it moves down stream. Time will tell.
 
Question for you guys. I was hoping to head to north ga area and helen/blairsville area and do some hiking Thursday and friday. Forecast looks like crap. Is there any hope?
 
NCSNOW said:
Im all about punting,throwing in th he towel etc for Jan. One caveat that is preventing this is jan 2000 redux. Got about a 12 day window in a horrific pattern. I see possibility of enough pv dislodge and cold in western Canada, to hold out hope some rabbit in the hat shuffeling gets it into our side of the continent Jan 18-Jan 30. No way banking on a 180 flip and favorable pattern salvaging last 6 weeks of winter. Just a 10 to 12 day blip. Eitheir all that cold just stays out west late month and becomes stale or it moves down stream. Time will tell.
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KATL and KRDU both averaged MA over the 16 day period for 12/29/99-1/13/2000 (a whopping 8-9 AN or more akin to mid March). This was pretty abruptly followed by both averaging MB 1/14-2/6/2000; KRDU averaged a whopping 10 BN with only ONE day of those 24 without a freeze along with 3 different multi-inch snows! KATL averaged 7 BN with only 4 of those 24 days without a freeze and had not one but TWO major ZRs!

- Another interesting fact about 1/14-2/6/2000: this was by a good margin the coldest for this 3.5 week period since way back in 1986!! So, starting from now, you have to back to the incredibly cold 1985 to find a colder 1/14-2/6 and even that was only a little colder!

- During the very cold 1/14-2/6/00, 23 of the 24 days were inside the COD of the MJO with 18 of those 23 days inside the coldest phases (inside COD that isn't phases 4 or 5). In all fairness, however, that was also largely the case for the warm period preceding.

- A strong +AO dominated both periods although it went modestly negative 1/18-22 before going back to strong +AO.

- A strong +NAO dominated the warm period and did turn to mainly a -NAO during much of the cold period.

-There was a very strong -PNA during the warm period that also went into the first part of the cold period before going strongly +PNA last few days of Jan into early Feb.

- The warm period had a strong +EPO. This switched to a strong -EPO for the first half of the cold period followed by a switch right back to a strong +EPO for the 2nd half of the cold period.
 
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GaWx said:
KATL and KRDU both averaged MA over the 16 day period for 12/29/99-1/13/2000 (a whopping 8-9 AN or more akin to mid March). This was pretty abruptly followed by both averaging MB 1/14-2/6/2000; KRDU averaged a whopping 10 BN with only ONE day of those 24 without a freeze along with 3 different multi-inch snows! KATL averaged 7 BN with only 4 of those 24 days without a freeze and had not one but TWO major ZRs!

- Another interesting fact about 1/14-2/6/2000: this was by a good margin the coldest for this 3.5 week period since way back in 1986!! You have to back to the incredibly cold 1985 to find a colder 1/14-2/6 and even that was only a little colder!

- During the very cold 1/14-2/6/00, 23 of the 24 days were inside the COD of the MJO with 18 of those 23 days inside the coldest phases (inside COD that isn't phases 4 or 5). In all fairness, however, that was also largely the case for the warm period preceding.

- A strong +AO dominated both periods although it went modestly negative 1/18-22 before going back to strong +AO.

- A strong +NAO dominated the warm period and did turn to mainly a -NAO during much of the cold period.

-There was a very strong -PNA during the warm period that also went into the first part of the cold period before going strongly +PNA last few days of Jan into early Feb.

- The warm period had a strong +EPO. This switched to a strong -EPO for the first half of the cold period followed by a switch right back to a strong +EPO for the 2nd half of the cold period.
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I was with ya there and hoping until you said -NAO. What is that anymore in winter? We can scratch that. MJO going strongly into 5 and 6 this year when that year it was in the COD same time period. Well.... like I said earlier we would have most likely been able to see the signals at this time in 2000 of more favorable times ahead.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I was with ya there and hoping until you said -NAO. What is that anymore in winter? We can scratch that. MJO going strongly into 5 and 6 this year when that year it was in the COD same time period. Well.... like I said earlier we would have most likely been able to see the signals at this time in 2000 of more favorable times ahead.
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The period im referencing is post 1/20, not 1/14 like 2000. So 20 days, lets see how that period is coming into focus a week fro now, as it will start showing on the 15 day radar. Will say here where I live, we never get shut out. So always that caveat to be hopefull or more bold looking down the abysmal barrell we are out to 3rd week of this Jan.
 
FWIW the happy hour drunkard gefs members did show little more back end snow middle next weeks system. I'm still interested
 
NCSNOW said:
The period im referencing is post 1/20, not 1/14 like 2000. So 20 days, lets see how that period is coming into focus a week fro now, as it will start showing on the 15 day radar. Will say here where I live, we never get shut out. So always that caveat to be hopefull or more bold looking down the abysmal barrell we are out to 3rd week of this Jan.
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But the pattern change was earlier, 1/14, when the nonstop warmth abruptly stopped. I'm not saying any abrupt pattern change to colder would need to occur 1/14/2020 to closely replicate 2000 though. It could occur later in the month. The point of my post was to show how warm it was 12/29-1/13 (16 days) and then how cold it was immediately for such a long period, 3.5 weeks (1/14-2/6).
 
KyloG said:
yeah...if we could just get that ridge shoved over AK it would atleast dump a ton of cold hp into the conus. Op tries

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I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Webberweather53 said:
I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Its no wonder the CFS showing more nino’ish pattern with that vp plot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm banking on the pattern legitimately changing for the better once tropical forcing currently approaching the Maritime Continent passes thru the West Pacific ~ Jan 20th or so. The Pacific jet extension increase in AAM, & subsequent wave train generated by said paradigm shift would be the impetus for this ridge in the NE Pacific to break into Alaska & the Pacific side of the arctic in/around the last week of January, potentially sending us into the freezer by Jan 25-30 or so.

While it may be warm in a general sense, there could be a few transient & rather potent cold shots between now and then if we play our cards right synoptically. -EPOs are a freezer or fryer pattern in the SE US w/ rarely anything in between, likely won't be any different here.


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Samesies




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KyloG said:
CFS weekly says pattern change starts after the 20th.

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Would be nice to see this generally come to fruition, a huge North Pac and Scandinavian high is usually the type of tropospheric precursor pattern that splits the polar vortex. The associated surface impacts from a sudden stratospheric warming event of this type (wave 2/ PV split) are usually felt much more quickly than wave 1 displacements & are often immediate.
 
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