NoSnowATL
Member
Will this a be a cold but dry? Or is it too early?
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
If ur not excited about what the Gfs is showing than you would just be plane SILLY this thing is begging for a few more adjustments to really bring an absolute monster storm to large parts of the south East .. good gracious what a run
Obviously with a high pushing in u will have to have a dry period since you can’t get precip in high pressure obviously ... the keys with cold shots is to look at the front end for a storm and the back end for a storm
Well it’s the s/e we don’t normally see staying power of winter storms or cold. I know most would be happy with a small window late Jan. for one winter storm. Then rain for 3 weeks followed by another winter storm late Feb.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Feel like we've done this over and over again but hello January 2014 like cold in fantasy land on this run. What a ridiculous one.
Just one run but it's making me wonder. Watch this week or so of warmth lead to things blooming and then bam. Major cold.
Just one run but it's making me wonder. Watch this week or so of warmth lead to things blooming and then bam. Major cold.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Not this again...
Tampa/ Orlando sees snow or ice before Atlanta? I wouldn’t be surprised.
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From what I’ve seen the GEFS look better at h5 and more members showing frozen precip around day 10.
That's what happens when and IF you get overwhelming cold. The coast stands a better chance of a winter storm.............. Good luck, you deserve one for all the info and insight you give on the board!!!
NoSnowATL
Member
People often forget low level or surface dry air gets stuck in the hills from north Georgia into western NC. Meaning greater evaporative cooling or monster CAD events when the next big dog does come to moisten the upper column.
cd2play
Member
Where's the Cold Air Dammit!
IMO, wintery door opens for most lower elevations (Atlanta to Raleigh) after January 23rd. The two wintry mix events prior may not workout for most outside of VA/NC west of i77. *All based on the first major cold outbreak arriving.
if that happens it will be a miracle.. and I hope you get more snow than any of us.. you do good model analysis on here. I appreciate it
pcbjr
Member
It's all in the source ...
A little SE nod from JB
So here comes the test. In about a week to 10 days cold is going to be pushing even into the south to some degree. Big thunderstorms are going off tomorrow ( Texas) to Sunday) into the SE and MA. The old southern folklore that within 10 days after a winter thunderstorm, it snows, could be put to the test.
Meanwhile if this cold does push, the Mega MJO of 1978 comes to mind. I have given up on the euro and its MJO forecast. its correcting, but the GEFS has been better and this looks like the opposite of a few years ago, when we had favorable MJO for cold, but there was no cold to be had. Now we have an MJO that is fighting but the cold is on the table. The CFSV2 for the 10 days starting the 20th is absurdly cold, but its been consistent
Last 10 days of the month
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So here comes the test. In about a week to 10 days cold is going to be pushing even into the south to some degree. Big thunderstorms are going off tomorrow ( Texas) to Sunday) into the SE and MA. The old southern folklore that within 10 days after a winter thunderstorm, it snows, could be put to the test.
Meanwhile if this cold does push, the Mega MJO of 1978 comes to mind. I have given up on the euro and its MJO forecast. its correcting, but the GEFS has been better and this looks like the opposite of a few years ago, when we had favorable MJO for cold, but there was no cold to be had. Now we have an MJO that is fighting but the cold is on the table. The CFSV2 for the 10 days starting the 20th is absurdly cold, but its been consistent
Last 10 days of the month
the position of the SW is definitely a issue, only if it was farther south, but the H5 pattern does support CAD around this time, and the GFS/gefs has been highlighting potential for that around this time
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Ron Burgundy
Member
Bout right. Snow cutoff on my doorstep and 8” thirty miles from me. Lol.Lol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.
Weaker -PNA, cutoff ridge more East in AK, little bit of a 50/50 low signal, not bad
John1122
Member
That 18z GFS was bitter. Parts of the Tennessee Valley stay in the single digits January 23rd.
pcbjr
Member
This is not meant to be negative in any way ... parts of the SE are forecasted to be cold, but that is not a present tense or any sort of guaranteed thing ... it is indeed nice to see a model show what the 18z suggests, and some consistent later runs by it and other models would lend credence, but until it happens, please Folks, enjoy the movie, but remember that it's only a movie (for now) ...
Avalanche
Member
He did preface it with the 18gfs, so I took it he knew not to expect it.
mydoortotheworld
Member
That's the furthest south I've ever seen snow cover on the GFSLol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.
pcbjr
Member
This is close to banter ... but I also said there was nothing negative ... I was just sharing a broad observation ...
add ten degrees and it's probably closer to reality: 
NoSnowATL
Member
John1122
Member
Yes. I was referencing the model run. But with it being the coldest period climatology wise and the 500mb pattern shown with extreme Pacific blocking and the PV moving south, those temps would be on the table if the players came to pass as modeled. Especially with the GFS having a snow covered source region in those areas and just upstream.
ATLwxfan
Member
Lol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.
All together now... “NORTHWEST TREND!!!”
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John1122
Member
Its happened here before. Sadly the -EPO Arctic drought of 2017 saw below 0 cold in my area of Tennessee with no snow cover at all. The creek by my house froze 6 inches thick during January. I believe the deep south saw some big snow events during that time frame due to the extreme cold push.
Yep even the W Kerr Scott reservoir froze in Wilkes. That has like never happened. Then a year later we set the record highest water level. Extremes are the new norm IMO.
It is just a movie, but why do I think you wrote the script?
One last walk outside for awhile right now. About 55 F/still nice..
Yeah, the Arctic blast of January 2018 gave me low of 2 above with no snowcover. Thirty miles to our east had 3 inches on the ground and got down to minus 3.
Stormlover
Member
I'm sniffing something coming...time to jump back in here
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Welcome backI'm sniffing something coming...time to jump back in here