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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Nick_boynton_ said:
Weren’t u saying like 2 hours ago it wasn’t going to happen since we’ve been “hot” and wet
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Yea some of the initial fantasy storms I’m not sold on. But I see a door is starting to open to allow some true cold air down...even if it dries us out..the cold I see could lead to a sig. winter storm event at some point in late Jan.
 
Have to think poleward propagation of +aam from the recent spike is helping here too

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I’ll just leave the EPS days 10-15 temps right here.
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GaWx said:
Yeah, N Pacific ridge FTL. Feb 18 and 19 both had very strong -EPO/-PNA/N Pac Ridge as well as +NAO. Also, 2019 had a strong +AO.
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and if I remember correctly the coldest air got stuck on the other side of the globe and with the raging Pacific jet had no chance of coming over the pole
 
Ethan80963 said:
Just to show this is a pretty big increase, especially over Western NC, will be interesting to see if the mean will continue to increase. Looks like it will be based on the projected pattern we look to be entering.

00z
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12z
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And to and on to this the mean wasn’t the only thing that went up the amount of members went up as well. Here’s an example of the 00z run vs the newest 12z run. Look Great

00z
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12z
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I knew things would turn around just as they are now ... you can’t simply write off winter before it’s even begun! Now look at us we’re all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle .. oh what fun ???
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I knew things would turn around just as they are now ... you can’t simply write off winter before it’s even begun! Now look at us we’re all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle .. oh what fun ???
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Things are looking up, but be wary of the rug pull
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I knew things would turn around just as they are now ... you can’t simply write off winter before it’s even begun! Now look at us we’re all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle .. oh what fun
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"We're all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle." That's what I'm saying, all the "noise" we see is mostly in the mid to long range that ends up turning out to be nothing most of the time. Let's get a winter storm in a 7 day window that shows up on every single run (that has solid ensemble support) and we'll be in that "candy shop" ready for business. We're literally stepping on our tippy toes waiting for that "potential."

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KyloG said:
Makes you wonder...last 2 years we went though low amp 7-8-1-2 and high 7-8-1-2 for Jan into Feb which resulted in the same pattern GEFS keeps spitting out. Things that make you go hmmm...

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This is the same pattern (roughly speaking) that shows up when you look at points in the winter where we had a strong PV & phase 6-7 MJO pulse (via Jason Furtado).
WxWatch said:
"We're all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle." That's what I'm saying, all the "noise" we see is mostly in the mid to long range that ends up turning out to be nothing most of the time. Let's get a winter storm in a 7 day window that shows up on every single run (that has solid ensemble support) and we'll be in that "candy shop" ready for business. We're literally stepping on our tippy toes waiting for that "potential."

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99% of the time it doesn’t work that way. Also, I’m just trying to make sure if you think winter is still over or not?
 
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My rain and yuck 73 forecast next week wants me to decide to build an ark... ugh!!!! Miserable, sticky, stormy.... gag!!! Something has got to give!!!im hoping it’s the models having difficulty because a pattern is changing.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I don't think a rug pull is coming for a pattern shift. Too much agreement. But it's still up for debate how long it lasts and whether it'll hold long enough to get the ultimate goal of a storm.
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Famous last words lol. No, I basically agree with everything you said. The amount of staying power is where the rug could get yanked.
 
The new Bleaklies say winter will be returning for the last 12 or so days of the month. Also, each and every bleak of bleaks 2-6 is a good bit colder than the previous run (Monday) and, importantly, with no AN week in the SE. This is unlike the prior run, which was suggesting AN for Feb as a whole most likely. Can we actually get a near normal Feb for a change? That's what it is saying. That would be fantastic and would make it the coldest month of this winter.

**Edit: And this was based on the 0Z Euro. The 12Z was much colder late in its run.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Famous last words lol. No, I basically agree with everything you said. The amount of staying power is where the rug could get yanked.
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Let’s be honest though even if the super favorable pattern doesn’t stay we should be having to deal with the atrocities we’ve had to endure the past weeks and week to come .. we should be okay after this
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is the same pattern (roughly speaking) that shows up when you look at points in the winter where we had a strong PV & phase 6-7 MJO pulse (via Jason Furtado).

99% of the time it doesn’t work that way. Also, I’m just trying to make sure if you think winter is still over or not?
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I honestly would hate to say winter is over for good for the rest of this season. Is it over for now? Yes, imo it is, 60s and 70s for highs down my way (Northeast of ATL) through mid month. If the pattern doesn't change into a favorable colder pattern by mid February, winter would but cut short. As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February. Who knows how February is going to shape up at this point. I hate being sarcastic and negative and I'm normally not this way. But the fact is, soon as we get into January the pattern has to go into a train wreck and that's what gave me a "beating" this winter.

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So I get it. Clear pattern change and blah blah blah and don’t get caught up in the details but I don’t see all that much love for AL and GA (I-20 folks) yet.


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ATLwxfan said:
So I get it. Clear pattern change and blah blah blah and don’t get caught up in the details but I don’t see all that much love for AL and GA (I-20 folks) yet.


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I haven’t seen one all year, with this set up and a active southern jet you would think we would blindly run into one.


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WxWatch said:
I honestly would hate to say winter is over for good for the rest of this season. Is it over for now? Yes, imo it is, 60s and 70s for highs down my way (Northeast of ATL) through mid month. If the pattern doesn't change into a favorable colder pattern by mid February, winter would but cut short. As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February. Who knows how February is going to shape up at this point. I hate being sarcastic and negative and I'm normally not this way. But the fact is, soon as we get into January the pattern has to go into a train wreck and that's what gave me a "beating" this winter.

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The pattern heading into January was an inflamed shot through the warm phases and it looks like we will be far away from them for this upcoming pattern change .. I think that along with overwhelming support in ensembles and now operational runs should be enough to get anyone on this board excited for what’s to come .. don’t see a reason for this type of negativity really
 
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