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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

KyloG said:
Last run of the CFS for Jan. Would be pretty remarkable to finish Jan with neutral temps considering the first half looks solidly AN.

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This is quite closely mirroring the events of 1954-1955. The fall and winter season have been remarkably similar. Record highs set and broken on the same days at times. Hot Octobers, cold Novembers, December that saw temps start cold and go AN. 70+ degree highs on Dec 30th both years. Jan 1955 started out well AN through the first 10 days but finished up BN with a cold run in the second half.
 
John1122 said:
This is quite closely mirroring the events of 1954-1955. The fall and winter season have been remarkably similar. Record highs set and broken on the same days at times. Hot Octobers, cold Novembers, December that saw temps start cold and go AN. 70+ degree highs on Dec 30th both years. Jan 1955 started out well AN through the first 10 days but finished up BN with a cold run in the second half.
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Going by the climate archive, January & February 1955 did offer one or two decent snows.
 
This could hopefully produce some winter weather.
 

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Still a good way out and can trend south or north so definitely some potential here .. Gfs further south solution and euro is a cutter but very strong possible Annafront situation
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Anafrontal worked pretty well for some West of the mountains in December. Northern Alabama had it's first 1+ inch snow in a few years. 3-4 inches fell in my area on the Northern Cumberland Plateau. Around 1.5-2 over a lot of the eastern half of Tennessee, especially 40 and north. Anafrontal rain to snow events used to be common it seemed but that was the first one here in probably 10 years. Granted in the 1970s every form or way of getting snow was more common.
 
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John1122 said:
This is quite closely mirroring the events of 1954-1955. The fall and winter season have been remarkably similar. Record highs set and broken on the same days at times. Hot Octobers, cold Novembers, December that saw temps start cold and go AN. 70+ degree highs on Dec 30th both years. Jan 1955 started out well AN through the first 10 days but finished up BN with a cold run in the second half.
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Well it’s often said that the only CFS run that matters is the last day of the month and this one continued its trend the last few days of being closer to average in the southeast. With it looking like above to well above average being likely for the first two and half weeks minus next week’s short cold shot, you have to wonder if the model is seeing a sharp pattern change around the 18th or 20th. As others have said, with the cold buildup going in Canada, he once the indicies get where we need them, a colder pattern should come quicker
 
Well out of sheer boredom I looked at all the Januarys since the mid 70's where the MJO had high amplitude (>1) into ph4 or 5. You get this graphic below, which isn't surprising as its what the ensembles are all showing through mid-January.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9089600.png


xIuK7xtbBg.png

I then looked at the ones that had AN temps in the E/SE and of course those carried on with a similar pattern.


2Kes96gE2n.png


But, exactly half of them did have BN temps in the E/SE for Feb...graphic below. So I guess the point of this post was that this pattern in January isn't a death knell for rest of winter. Question is what was the reason for the BN Feb analogs v/s the AN analogs...

9sTcfnasOK.png


cd107.15.181.206.364.14.56.44.prcp.png
 
KyloG said:
Last run of the CFS for Jan. Would be pretty remarkable to finish Jan with neutral temps considering the first half looks solidly AN.

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Technically this is the last run (so far, I think there’s an 18z run)
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The CPC site of the first image is actually averaged from Jan 28-31, but you’re not wrong that’s the last one they post!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Here is a comparison of the two at H5. The Icon imo looks much better. If we were to speed up that northern stream, we would really be cooking. Although that blocking in SE Canada is going prevent that a bit.
C5F3732D-7AE4-45D0-8A66-E18F4A1BF06A.png8DD67ED8-8CE3-4921-8F73-411A276895FF.png
 
Pretty big flip at 500mb over the Arctic on the GFS vs last night, but similar result with the big trough in the west. Just looks like a -AO/-PNA instead of a +AO/-PNA. It's sad. If we could get that giant EPO ridge to set up 600-800 miles east and orient north to south we would be having epic winter weather. Looks like it tries before 216 but it retrograde West and allows then big -PNA to develop downstream.

Canada is absolutely filled, coast to coast with super cold air. Just need a way to dislodge it and hold it here rather than glancing blows.
 
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