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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
I actually don't recall Cohen really ever being right. I'm sure he has been, and I'm sure his methods have some merit, but he's generally driving on the wrong side of the road.
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Just like JB and BAMwx and anyone else who has been mainly cold in the E US. Anyone going mainly mild is looking like a genius. Maxar has been slightly warmer than normal and so doesn't look nearly as bad. That's why I put much more weight on them as they're not weenie forecasters. They don't let their desires influence them other than the desire to be accurate.

Easy solution to get more accurate E US forecasts from weenie forecasters: Make sure they don't live in the E US!
 
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If there is one thing that we have learned over the past few years, it is the power of pattern persistence. I get this notion of wanting to discount the operational models outside of a week, but what the GFS is forecasting is certainly more than plausible.


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NoSnowATL said:
Still needs work. Looks great for the upper south but Deep South still looks like poop for now.


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These kinds of patterns often step down West to East and obviously North to South. Frozen events will at times track just south of the prior frozen event. If the big -EPO comes to pass there are probably going to be frozen precip chances from New Orleans to Savannah and points North as we get into later in the month. The significant amount of weight of the cold is also a factor. Models, even 24 hours ahead of events that involve zr/sleet are often not aggressive enough in the press of cold south and east and they also scour out low level cold too quickly quite often.
 
look at ensembles and look at what’s been more reliable which would be the EURO model and it’s ensembles.. now I do believe the pattern change is going to be a process I’m sure we will see several icing events and cad events before a full change to cold and snow .. this would most likely benefit more the upper south regions in the time period 18th-25th I.e Tennessee North Carolina .. the usuals .. after that though we should see a more solidified trough pattern dig into the East with what looks to be lots of blocking beginning to take place as the opposite reaction will have fully commenced by that point .. and no this isn’t going to shut off the STJ it’s not as simple as turning off a hose it wasn’t “turned off” a month ago and it’s not going to turn off now sure there may be initial times of cold and dry as there always will be but the systems will come in as they have been for months and they will have a much easier time lining up with a cold shot once we fully get into this pattern after 25th
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
I’ll try and reiterate for the people in the back that maybe can’t look at all the posts all the time ... STOP LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE OPERATION POOP GFS ... that gives you NO indication of what’s to come it won’t come to formation just as all the other operational long range Gfs forecasts haven’t in the past several months ... look at ensembles and for the love of god look at what’s been more reliable which would be the EURO model and it’s ensembles.. now I do believe the pattern change is going to be a process I’m sure we will see several icing events and cad events before a full change to cold and snow .. this would most likely benefit more the upper south regions in the time period 18th-25th I.e Tennessee North Carolina .. the usuals .. after that though we should see a more solidified trough pattern dig into the East with what looks to be lots of blocking beginning to take place as the opposite reaction will have fully commenced by that point .. and no this isn’t going to shut off the STJ it’s not as simple as turning off a hose it wasn’t “turned off” a month ago and it’s not going to turn off now sure there may be initial times of cold and dry as there always will be but the systems will come in as they have been for months and they will have a much easier time lining up with a cold shot once we fully get into this pattern after 25th
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I'll be honest I stopped reading your post after the first few lines due to the tone of it. People can look at whatever day GFS they like and discuss it, it's a weather forum that's what we do. You'd get a message out better if you'd speak with people instead of at them

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metwannabe said:
I'll be honest I stopped reading your post after the first few lines due to the tone of it. People can look at whatever day GFS they like and discuss it, it's a weather forum that's what we do. You'd get a message out better if you'd speak with people instead of at them

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so looking forward to trial ...
 
metwannabe said:
I'll be honest I stopped reading your post after the first few lines due to the tone of it. People can look at whatever day GFS they like and discuss it, it's a weather forum that's what we do. You'd get a message out better if you'd speak with people instead of at them

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Fixed. My apologies.. just gets annoying when people say the Gfs is bad and then months later start using it as the reason to back them up that winter isn’t coming when the majority of models don’t support that idea
 
John1122 said:
These kinds of patterns often step down West to East and obviously North to South. Frozen events will at times track just south of the prior frozen event. If the big -EPO comes to pass there are probably going to be frozen precip chances from New Orleans to Savannah and points North as we get into later in the month. The significant amount of weight of the cold is also a factor. Models, even 24 hours ahead of events that involve zr/sleet are often not aggressive enough in the press of cold south and east and they also scour out low level cold too quickly quite often.
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Not entirely true. For places like ATL the zr maps are always overdone.


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I like that the N Pac ridge may very well not lock in if the EPS is right. Maybe the GFS is right on the MJO progression as well. This crap pattern appears to breakdown around MLK day. Although I don't see most on this board getting a legit threat until the last week of Jan. The further west you are the better but for the immediate se maybe a minor CAD event at best until the end of Jan. I'm going to hang out in limbo for a few days and watch things to see if this is a legit pattern change to a colder east or just a reload of the crap pattern we're in.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I like that the N Pac ridge may very well not lock in if the EPS is right. Maybe the GFS is right on the MJO progression as well. This crap pattern appears to breakdown around MLK day. Although I don't see most on this board getting a legit threat until the last week of Jan. The further west you are the better but for the immediate se maybe a minor CAD event at best until the end of Jan. I'm going to hang out in limbo for a few days and watch things to see if this is a legit pattern change to a colder east or just a reload of the crap pattern we're in.
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Late week 2 is looking the best on ensemble consensus that it has in quite a long time. I often have lots of doubt due to cold bias for good reason but I think this time is different because the last few EPS runs have been colder than GEFS/getting colder and EPS is king. The MJO today looks much better and all 15 cases of very high amp phases 4/5 subsequently went into 7 with 13 of 15 into 7 and 8. Also, 2005 and 2000 got very cold late Jan after each had one of the warmest periods on record for several week period prior.

In summary for @pcbjr and others, don’t give up on your late Jan predictions!!
 
While it’s not the best pattern, you can definitely score a miller B/overrunning setup with this type of pattern, with high pressure getting caught under the 50/50 low, it’s a timing issue but there lots of time to sort out things like that, I’m not saying there’s gonna be a winter storm, but this pattern can produce, it would likely mean ice/sleet with WAA over shallow cold with cold high pressure BEB708B9-75DC-4D74-B018-8981E48A2C1E.png
 
John1122 said:
GFS is loaded for bear starting in about 8 days. Great set ups for winter weather and repeat shots.
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Not a lot of snow on that run but it was a fun run watching the Low pressure orientations begin to change. It’s amazing what can happen when you pop a little +PNA..D8F91E2E-44C2-446E-9E98-5B03F49A3DF9.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not a lot of snow on that run but it was a fun run watching the Low pressure orientations begin to change. It’s amazing what can happen when you pop a little +PNA..View attachment 30015
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The pattern was really nice, even if the model didn't show a ton of snow. The 2nd storm in the 288ish timeframe was classic miller A. I'd take that set up all day in Tennessee and the Western half of North Carolina.
 
John1122 said:
GFS is loaded for bear starting in about 8 days. Great set ups for winter weather and repeat shots.
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Exactly we may not have had big fantasy storm but it definitely showed a pattern very conducive of spitting out some winter weather in the southeast .. just need some things to wiggle here and there but we won’t get those details until we get closer all we can say is things look to definitely be turning around soon just a litttttleeeee more patience
 
Using the GFS OP as an example, not taking this pattern officially. But this is a much better look, if we can see this pattern on the ensembles we might be in for some business. You see what happens when that strong ridge over the northern Pacific gets replaced by a trough? The trough makes the jet stream rise over the west (+PNA, western ridge) while the jet dips over the east, allowing the deeper cold air to reach further south and east. As I said before, that strong northern Pacific ridge needs to go, or evolve pole ward towards Alaska (-EPO) to make the jet dip further south and east. Too bad this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours, so this pattern is speculation until we see ensemble support and consistency.
84005ed5e0a1e013795787dd01d7c72c.jpg


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Ethan80963 said:
Fwiw the GEFS has a few more members for the “system” around the 17-18th vs previous runs. Here’s an example of GSP 18z vs 00z.
(Note these convert frozen precip to snow)

18z
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00z
View attachment 30017
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Interesting time frame, there will still likely be a SER, but the Sfc will likely be cool during this time from artic high pressure, certainly supports icy conditions with shallow cold air somewhere
 
WxWatch said:
Using the GFS OP as an example, not taking this pattern officially. But this is a much better look, if we can see this pattern on the ensembles we might be in for some business. You see what happens when that strong ridge over the northern Pacific gets replaced by a trough? The trough makes the jet stream rise over the west (+PNA, western ridge) while the jet dips over the east, allowing the deeper cold air to reach further south and east. As I said before, that strong northern Pacific ridge needs to go, or evolve pole ward towards Alaska (-EPO) to make the jet dip further south and east. Too bad this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours, so this pattern is speculation until we see ensemble support and consistency.
84005ed5e0a1e013795787dd01d7c72c.jpg


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Strange this looks oddly familiar to what the euro ensembles were showing days ago .. I think it’s a safe bet to stay with the eps in the middle to long range for sure .. nice to see the Gfs climbing aboard slowly
 
0ABB01CF-4CAE-41EA-8225-E3F7E191153B.gif171B81E3-16AA-4604-AA25-2AE732F9BB84.gifGefs is certainly interesting if you live in CAD areas around this time (or the upper SE), 50/50 low has been trending south and stronger, and the response has been a high pressure further south in better position for a CAD, got a little ridge axis extending in the GLs, miller B pattern to me (yea there not the best but at this point it’s the best we can get)
 
Storm5 said:
06z gfs is loaded with potential
Yes, it is.... Looks like the GFS is finally seeing the pattern change. Huge snowfall increase for the upper south on the control run. Ensembles are not finished yet. Interested to see what they show.

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Taking the kiddos on MLK weekend to the bunny slopes at Sapphire Valley and maybe Cataloochee. Verbatim on the 06z GFS, they may be smiling.


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@SD

This is exactly what we were talking about happening out west. It is hard to believe that it actually might play out that way. Euro isn't quite there, but it's showing some signs of hopping onboard. If this plays out, there will be more than one really legit opportunity for widespread winter weather.

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gfs_z500_mslp_namer_65.png
 
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