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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

WEATHERBOYROY said:
Web, I know you are a very intelligent fellow. I really enjoy your excellent analysis of all the models. However, as good as you are, and as good as the models are, neither of you can give a consistently accurate forecast for the next 10 days. Why should we buy into what's gonna happen 50 to 75 years down the road.AND What do these unsubstantiated global warming theories have to do with Jan 2020? You guys have a global warming thread!
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Uhh no, I've been very adamant on how the pattern was going to evolve going forward and the threat window for wintry weather ~ Jan 5-10, specify exactly where I've been inconsistent because as far as I can tell, I haven't been.

There's a massive difference of scale when dealing with day-to-day, years, and multidecadal forecasts, the same level of detail can not be expected at both scales. This is an often overused argument, because we can't predict the location of some random thunderstorm in my backyard at "x" day does not mean we also can't predict the long-term slowly evolving temperature trend over a period of several decades. The processes acting at these scales are highly disparate from one another and the evolution of some thunderstorm over a short period of time "t" will have virtually no impact on the large-scale temperature over a period of several decades when thousands of said storms are observed, i.e. it's "noise". As for global warming, it's a symptom of climate change, it simply can't be ignored when assessing long-term underlying tendencies in snowfall in the southeastern US and comparing modern winters & storms of today to those in the early 20th & late 19th century. Here our limiting factor for snow almost always is a lack of cold air, both theory and historical observations at reliable observing sites like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, SC, Wilmington, NC, (just to name a few) are exhibiting significant-very significant long-term downward trends in seasonal snowfall which is almost certainly due to a warming climate alone. In areas of the US where the basic state climate is cold enough to support snow even in warm winters, it really doesn't matter (yet) and snowfall increases if anything during the heart of winter, because there's more moisture being fluxed around the globe & moist static energy increases as a function of temperature. It's complicated yes, it's not unsubstantiated, and this sort of discussion is entirely on topic.
 
Somosdel said:
Please stick to January weather. Can we please move global warming convos to banter? No need for clogging this thread with this.... thanks mods
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Discussion of the winter of 1941-42 came up in the context of this January, I provided maps from my site, and a question then arose on whether to use mean or median for snowfall averages at CAE because they seemed to be getting left out (again) in the upcoming pattern which is of course in January. I answered said question accordingly with my analyses of their historical snowfall and provided valuable input on how their snowfall has changed over the years, what the linear regression looks like and how the mean & median compare.

A few bloggers (including yourself) are getting upset over my stringent analyses of Columbia & Charlotte's historical snowfall which are entirely accurate and are crying foul and clogging this particular thread with posts complaining about this being about global warming.

Remind me again who's off topic here?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Discussion of the winter of 1941-42 came up in the context of this January, I provided maps from my site, and a question then arose on whether to use mean or median for snowfall averages at CAE because they seemed to be getting left out (again) in the upcoming pattern which is of course in January. A few bloggers (including yourself) are getting upset over my stringent analyses of Columbia & Charlotte's historical snowfall which are entirely accurate and are crying foul and clogging this particular thread with posts complaining about this being about global warming.

Remind me again who's off topic here?
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While it may be well substantiated by science it doesn’t fit within our discussion of Jan 2020 weather on the synoptic level. Let’s Continue model discussion and the next month. That’s all. Cheers
 
Somosdel said:
While it may be well substantiated by science it doesn’t fit within our discussion of Jan 2020 weather on the synoptic level. Let’s Continue model discussion and the next month. That’s all. Cheers
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Our sensible weather in January 2020 isn't going to be exclusively influenced by synoptic-scale variability. Micro, mesoscale, synoptic, planetary scale, climate variability, and even climate change all have their respective roles to play at various points in/around this month. Having tunnel vision s.t. to ignore anything outside the synoptic-scale won't get you very far.
 
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Congrats man, you totally lost me, LOL!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Ugghh...what the frack

I guess the bigger they are the harder the fall analogy might come to fruition.
 
KyloG said:
Ugghh...what the frack

I guess the bigger they are the harder the fall analogy might come to fruition.
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what I was wondering, so if it’s really strong, when it does weaken will it be that much colder air? Or does that have noting to do with it?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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I have no idea what you just said, but it sounds incredible.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere.
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Interesting.

Also not good on the last part of the post. I hope there's something that can trigger a change, because it does sound like if you can get a flip the eastern US would have really cold air heading at them.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Overwhelmed
 
I don’t post here much but more of a lurker who reads and learns from what others say. I am not pointing at anyone but what happened to the day where if you don’t want to read a post don’t. I think what Webber said is ok to be in the January thread. I pick through the texts I want to read and learn. Yes there is a climate change thread but why get so bent outta shape over what he said. No biggie just skim over it. One quick note. I was once a doubter of climate change. I will say the climate is changing and everyone should wake up. Climate and wx affect us all. From daily living to our attitudes to the way we act. People are changing like the climate. Sickness and diseases will increase. Food sources will decrease. So I think it is important to start paying attention. Let’s try to all get along and quit nitpicking. Just like a magazine. You read the articles you want to. Think of this forum like a magazine! Carry on!
 
Matthew70 said:
I don’t post here much but more of a lurker who reads and learns from what others say. I am not pointing at anyone but what happened to the day where if you don’t want to read a post don’t. I think what Webber said is ok to be in the January thread. I pick through the texts I want to read and learn. Yes there is a climate change thread but why get so bent outta shape over what he said. No biggie just skim over it. One quick note. I was once a doubter of climate change. I will say the climate is changing and everyone should wake up. Climate and wx affect us all. From daily living to our attitudes to the way we act. People are changing like the climate. Sickness and diseases will increase. Food sources will decrease. So I think it is important to start paying attention. Let’s try to all get along and quit nitpicking. Just like a magazine. You read the articles you want to. Think of this forum like a magazine! Carry on!
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Plus, Webber is like 20x smarter than the next best poster in here. We're actually blessed to have his thoughts here.
 
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