January is officially toast: 
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Not overly excited for severe this weekend as upslope rains start at 0z Saturday well in advance of the main line of wind. Meaning no sun just clouds and light rain. That usually doesn’t help getting severe East of the mtns it dies rapidly.
Well it’s hard not to toast with the rain that is coming. Nights are going to be way above normal. I really think this active jet is just too much for western NC. The cold can’t come. Yet.
Awh you’re still using the unreliable GEFS for accurate forecasting .. cute .. in all seriousness things are actually looking really good for the time period 18-25th that Webb has been talking about and I’ve been seeing as well on reliable modeling for our pattern to change for sure and after that the exciting possibilities seem endless .. I sure hope no one actually has punted winter all together ? you’re going to be so wrong in the end if that’s the case
trust me, I'd be thrilled to see this 100% wrong. Just preparing myself mentally for a complete wall to wall dud of a winter. That's all.
Ilovesnow28
Member
I actually have been punted winter over a month ago and I hope to be proven wrong
ATLwxfan
Member
Man that fiery blowtorch at the end of the run is a sight to behold. Meanwhile a full on glaciation in Dallas.
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Jon
Member
06z has a huge -EPO at the end of the run, no option but deep cold with that look. GEFS is catching on.
That SE ridge would likely slide west and not even be there, fault of the model.
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Storm5
Member
the 17th-20th holds overrunning potential
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh boy, phase 7 in January!
EPS = light at the end of the tunnel. I'm gonna enjoy the spring like weather next week because I think I like where we are headed by the end of the month.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just as a refresher:
"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!
Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651
Cmonnnn phase 7!
"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!
Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651
Cmonnnn phase 7!
How's the Euro MJO forecast looking? The CPC data is still showing yesterday's.
Comes out at 9:30-10am on CPC.
SnowNiner
Member
Mostly probably. I do like where the GEFS went this morning for late January (out in la la land though). Ridging pushing up into Alaska giving us our -EPO back and Scandinavian ridging pinching in, pushing the TPV down into Hudson Bay. Trough there is technically in the east it starts to look like so it could work later on. Verbatim I think we're still sticking cold in the midwest, but in a few days we'd get cold I bet. Plus this is the theme of the EPS, so even in la la land maybe it's on to something. My guess is EPS may be rushing it and GEFS has the right idea. Split the difference and maybe last week in January ends our shut the lights out pattern.
We've seen that pattern before...many times in recent winters, actually. Until and unless we get blocking, then we should know what to generally expect, should this pattern come to fruition: Moderate to strong Highs slipping out of Canada and sliding east or east southeast. The flow up north will be transitory, meaning the window for wintry weather in the SE will be short. BUT, unlike the pattern so far this season, at least the window will be open for biz.
The pattern will feature the core of the cold being dumped into the center of the US, sometimes penetrating into the SE, sometimes dealing a glancing blow to the SE. The northern and western parts of the SE will be the most favored areas. This year, however, we have a more active STJ, so that should be of benefit and provide more opportunities for wintry weather, assuming the EPO comes to fruition and is stable for a while. The wildcard will be blocking. Should that develop, we will get into a much more genuine winter pattern that should provide much more of the SE a legitimate opportunity or two for significant winter weather. I kind of expect this to happen down the road.
“11-15: Models Diverge In North Pacific Pattern
Models offer diverging solutions in the 11-15 Day period, with ~12 GWHDDs separating the colder Euro EN from the warmer GFS EN. The differences originate out of the northern Pacific, where the Euro projects a trough to emerge over Alaska. If observed, this solution could start to wash out cold air along the Northern Tier, perhaps even faster than the model is currently projecting. This, however, is somewhat of an outlier among the models this morning. The GFS EN and CAN EN project an element of pattern persistence with that of the 1-5 and 6-10 Day periods, implying a still warmer than normal pattern in the Eastern Half. The difference in models is illustrated well in the projections for the EPO shown below. Both the GFS and CAN models have a negative signal, while the Euro is positive. In the past few weeks, the Euro EN has been the best performing model at the 500mb level over the Northern Hemisphere; but given its divergence from other models in the north Pacific and its larger spread among members for the EPO, our forecast takes a middle ground approach for now. Confidence for the period is lower than usual until improved consistency is gained.” From Maxar
Models offer diverging solutions in the 11-15 Day period, with ~12 GWHDDs separating the colder Euro EN from the warmer GFS EN. The differences originate out of the northern Pacific, where the Euro projects a trough to emerge over Alaska. If observed, this solution could start to wash out cold air along the Northern Tier, perhaps even faster than the model is currently projecting. This, however, is somewhat of an outlier among the models this morning. The GFS EN and CAN EN project an element of pattern persistence with that of the 1-5 and 6-10 Day periods, implying a still warmer than normal pattern in the Eastern Half. The difference in models is illustrated well in the projections for the EPO shown below. Both the GFS and CAN models have a negative signal, while the Euro is positive. In the past few weeks, the Euro EN has been the best performing model at the 500mb level over the Northern Hemisphere; but given its divergence from other models in the north Pacific and its larger spread among members for the EPO, our forecast takes a middle ground approach for now. Confidence for the period is lower than usual until improved consistency is gained.” From Maxar
SnowNiner
Member
Agreed on the upcoming pattern. -EPO cold shots has been our best case scenario the last few years. The problem though is that mostly it's been cold and dry when the cold air does push through. With the active STJ maybe that can change and do work, tick our chances up. I've lost any faith in true greenland blocking. I think that ship sailed the first week in December. Why do you expect blocking to eventually show up?
I just want out of the no way Jose pattern. That'll be great. Cold and dry would be better than April weather.
What’s everyone thoughts on the STJ turning off for February? Would be kinda rare to see Feb come close to Jan rain totals or there would be major flooding.
Some interesting members on the GEFS look to somewhat agree with the 6z GFS.
Here the website to find it
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Here the website to find it
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Six Mile Wx
Member
But but but winters over? Righttttt?!?!?! ??? Gfs now getting in the back of the line with the euro and geps
Along with the people who followed it
Along with the people who followed it
At least the GEFS making some noise for a change, yeah yeah, not all of this is snow and it's way out there but with the MJO looking better (maybe) and the H5 pattern showing signs or breaking down and now the models hinting at some winter weather lurking..... all might not be lost just yet. Cautiously optimistic as we head toward the end of the month
Six Mile Wx
Member
I believe that in 7 days the pattern transition will begin! Which is also about the time we enter MJO phase 6. If it’s gonna happen then we should start seeing it show up in the models more and more as it starts to become modeled correctly. The signs are already there.
GEFS obviously still AN in the east but I like where it's going. Tanking -EPO but with ridge axis to far west will keep the cold in the central part of the country in the extended. Still dumps cold HP into the conus so gives chances.
That is not the tropospheric PV...that is just a deep upper low digging very far south. The trop PV on the op GFS run was fractured and spread out...the deep purples.
SnowNiner
Member
I can't say that I'm a fan of that verbatim. Everything needs to shift east a good clip. I know we don't live at H5 but I hate positive heights over the south east pushing the storm track to Chicago. I know we can get overunning/CAD, but it's just not my cup of tea.
I don't understand why the GEFS MJO forecast looks good long range but it's H5 set up still kinda stinks. Perhaps we're not in view of phase 7 yet.
what happens if after all this rain this weekend the cold disappears to mid feb or doesn’t even show on the models do we go back to square one?
That’s the thing the Gfs is playing catch up big time to the already superior EURO the euro has had all of that shifted East for a while now .. look at the euro not the Gfs .. that should go without saying at this point
Not being modeled right now so I don’t take into consideration
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yeah, what I posted was just an anomaly map.