Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
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Not overly excited for severe this weekend as upslope rains start at 0z Saturday well in advance of the main line of wind. Meaning no sun just clouds and light rain. That usually doesn’t help getting severe East of the mtns it dies rapidly.
Well it’s hard not to toast with the rain that is coming. Nights are going to be way above normal. I really think this active jet is just too much for western NC. The cold can’t come. Yet.
Awh you’re still using the unreliable GEFS for accurate forecasting .. cute .. in all seriousness things are actually looking really good for the time period 18-25th that Webb has been talking about and I’ve been seeing as well on reliable modeling for our pattern to change for sure and after that the exciting possibilities seem endless .. I sure hope no one actually has punted winter all together ? you’re going to be so wrong in the end if that’s the case
trust me, I'd be thrilled to see this 100% wrong. Just preparing myself mentally for a complete wall to wall dud of a winter. That's all.
I actually have been punted winter over a month ago and I hope to be proven wrong
Man that fiery blowtorch at the end of the run is a sight to behold. Meanwhile a full on glaciation in Dallas.
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06z has a huge -EPO at the end of the run, no option but deep cold with that look. GEFS is catching on.
That SE ridge would likely slide west and not even be there, fault of the model.
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the 17th-20th holds overrunning potential
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EPS = light at the end of the tunnel. I'm gonna enjoy the spring like weather next week because I think I like where we are headed by the end of the month.
Just as a refresher:
"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!
Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651
Cmonnnn phase 7!
"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!
Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651
Cmonnnn phase 7!
How's the Euro MJO forecast looking? The CPC data is still showing yesterday's.
Mostly probably. I do like where the GEFS went this morning for late January (out in la la land though). Ridging pushing up into Alaska giving us our -EPO back and Scandinavian ridging pinching in, pushing the TPV down into Hudson Bay. Trough there is technically in the east it starts to look like so it could work later on. Verbatim I think we're still sticking cold in the midwest, but in a few days we'd get cold I bet. Plus this is the theme of the EPS, so even in la la land maybe it's on to something. My guess is EPS may be rushing it and GEFS has the right idea. Split the difference and maybe last week in January ends our shut the lights out pattern.
We've seen that pattern before...many times in recent winters, actually. Until and unless we get blocking, then we should know what to generally expect, should this pattern come to fruition: Moderate to strong Highs slipping out of Canada and sliding east or east southeast. The flow up north will be transitory, meaning the window for wintry weather in the SE will be short. BUT, unlike the pattern so far this season, at least the window will be open for biz.
The pattern will feature the core of the cold being dumped into the center of the US, sometimes penetrating into the SE, sometimes dealing a glancing blow to the SE. The northern and western parts of the SE will be the most favored areas. This year, however, we have a more active STJ, so that should be of benefit and provide more opportunities for wintry weather, assuming the EPO comes to fruition and is stable for a while. The wildcard will be blocking. Should that develop, we will get into a much more genuine winter pattern that should provide much more of the SE a legitimate opportunity or two for significant winter weather. I kind of expect this to happen down the road.