Well fwiw looks like the GEFS had more support for snow around the 7-8th than previous runs.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
This is what that pattern characterized by that shallow GOA ridge/-PNA can do, gfs showed a severe weather setup to go along with it, typical when you have a flexing SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW, If we get a pattern like this to verify severe weather is definitely on the table (similar pattern to what we saw the end of feb/early March last year which gave that outbreak in the SE) 
Nomanslandva
Member
Just tabbing through members, EPS as well.
tennessee storm
Member
ouch. That’s a very potent set up for sure
Let's not get carried away with our worship here.
You know I would agree that this forum is blessed to have a number of very knowledgeable posters. However, with all due respect, intelligence does not mean infallible nor has it earned anyone the right to say whatever, whenever or wherever they want, it just doesn't work that way. Now if you have an opinion about my post and care to rebut or comment, I welcome it, just quote it and post it in a banter thread or PM me. Now I return you to our regularly scheduled Winter torch with a possible wintry spritzer interruption.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As potent as this -PNA is from the January 9-10th onward, it's progressively becoming more lackluster/weaker with time on the GEFS and the Aleutian low is deepening.
Jon
Member
Continuing to see signs of life (albeit on the CFS) but it’s still good to see.
Poleward disruption of the strong PV and -AO see off and on, varying with runs lately. Here’s the most recent one I saw on the 3rd week of January...
Now before someone points it out, yes this is the last frame of the GFS operational. Yep. It’s still worth noting, because it moves two huge blocks poleward.
I’d normally say it’s not worth even noting, but sometimes large changes on operationals even at day 16 can hint at pattern disruption..so I still look.
When we finally get the -AO modeled consistently, we should see things change.
Here’s the EPS. This is the area I’m watching on future runs — if we can get a disruption from a Scandinavia.
Side: Judah Cohen tweeted on the 00z gfs Op which brought this to my attention.
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Poleward disruption of the strong PV and -AO see off and on, varying with runs lately. Here’s the most recent one I saw on the 3rd week of January...
Now before someone points it out, yes this is the last frame of the GFS operational. Yep. It’s still worth noting, because it moves two huge blocks poleward.
I’d normally say it’s not worth even noting, but sometimes large changes on operationals even at day 16 can hint at pattern disruption..so I still look.
When we finally get the -AO modeled consistently, we should see things change.
Here’s the EPS. This is the area I’m watching on future runs — if we can get a disruption from a Scandinavia.
Side: Judah Cohen tweeted on the 00z gfs Op which brought this to my attention.
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One thing that I do like, that the models are generally agreeing on is that in the LR, the PV isn't setting up shop on the other side of the hemisphere. That should theoretically make it easier to get into a colder pattern a little easier...down the line.
Yep. Leave it to the 18z run to catch on to a trend
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep
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Ugh...
TV mets (& everyone in general) need to be very careful when regurgitating precip type output from the European, the column is going to be extremely cold in this setup and the freezing level on the European is below 925mb by the time heavier precip shows up & falls to -3C before wrapping up. The melting layer may be so small near the surface that hydrometeors don't have enough time to melt before reaching the ground.
Thus, that's not exactly game, set, match for all liquid precipitation outside the N GA mountains even on the European which shows cold rain.
I've seen & personally witnessed too many cases where wet snow will reach the ground even with surface temps in the 40s underneath a cold core upper low and this weekend could be another one of those instances.
The thing that really hurts is we're still looking at losing two/three weeks of prime winter. Sure we may score a (perfectly timed) flizzard during the next 10 days, but most on here are looking for the big SE snow storm. The (CPC) indices are not in our favor (-PNA, +AO, +NAO).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
**in the spirit of packbacker
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Mr. Golf
Member
@Webberweather53, the CCKW u mentioned on twitter yesterday going into the maritime continent with the warm phases, is it possible that we can get the mjo into the western hemisphere and into more favorable phases after that support cold weather in the east end of January into February? I feel like that's a great question if we have any real chance of salvaging some winter.
Idk if the setup was was exactly the same or similar, but I remember we had a situation here back in April 2009 where we had a brief period of snow/grauple with temps in the low 40s. I remember it vividly because it happened during my Spring Break.
The system next Monday and Tuesday is somewhat interesting . Temps suck but some areas could see something if it’s timed right and comes in at night
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Broken024
Member
Snow in nc at 190 on gfs
This is still the time period I’m interested in, in past experience a lot of our storms come in with the 2nd piece of energy or trough timed right on the heels of the initial cold front. Of course timing is everything, but maybe we get lucky before the pattern goes sour.
There is significant agreement amongst the GEFS members that my area may see some snow Saturday into Sunday.
