It's the mean. The pattern is unlikely to look that smooth and uneventful by the time we get there. Although we don't know where exactly, there will, at times, be high pressure zones and waves of low pressure in near favorable locations, if that general look plays out. Plus, it looks like it is continuing to evolve in the right direction. Plus, there's a signal for blocking over the top. Hopefully, that trend will continue, and we'll continue to see the general mean pattern take on a more wintry look itself over time.I can't say that I'm a fan of that verbatim. Everything needs to shift east a good clip. I know we don't live at H5 but I hate positive heights over the south east pushing the storm track to Chicago. I know we can get overunning/CAD, but it's just not my cup of tea.
I don't understand why the GEFS MJO forecast looks good long range but it's H5 set up still kinda stinks. Perhaps we're not in view of phase 7 yet.
Or, we could take 3 steps back tomorrow, I suppose. Hopefully, that will not be the case.