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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Webberweather53 said:
Basically the GEFS is all in on the front end of this threat window ~ Jan 5-10, the EPS is almost exclusively focused on the latter portions of it. GEFS - EPS compromise would actually give us 2 storms in this pattern. If only it actually worked that way.
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One NINO winter that comes to mind that kinda sucked until the last possible minute and made the most of a tiny favorable window in early January & produced 2 events in central NC (1941-42):

January 7-8 1942 NC Snowmap.png

January 9-10 1942 NC Snowmap.png


Of course, the US HWY 64 corridor east of Asheboro got completely screwed over that winter, really must have sucked to live in the Triangle or central coastal plain.


Winter of 1941-42 NC Snowmap.png
 
Broken024 said:
What is Columbia's median snowfall, its got to be zero?
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Spurs up said:
actually the average is supposed to be 2 to 3 inches yearly.
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Yes Columbia's long-term average is just below 2", however adjusting their long-term mean w/ a least squares regression line and finding the y-intercept at this year, it's only 1". The median snow in Columbia is 0.2" so basically a light dusting is expected in about 50% of winters down there. I personally prefer median to using a simple long-term mean or at least adjusting said average w/ regression to find the true climatology of a particular area.

Performing the same analysis for Charlotte yields a simple long-term mean of 6", but the regression adjusted mean & median are about 4" and are imo far more representative of today's warmer & generally less snowy basic state. At the current rate of snowfall loss in KCLT over the observed record, Charlotte will have Columbia, SC's late 19th century snowfall climatology in roughly 50-75 years from now or roughly by the end of the 21st century. Certainly puts things into perspective...
 
Spurs up said:
yea there's been a few good ones over past 10 years but nothing good past 2 years
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Yea that's the frustrating thing living in the south. You will wait several years for snow often if you are too far south of 85. Might hit 8 inches one year and see nothing or a trace for 4 years and "average" 2
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes Columbia's long-term average is just below 2", however adjusting their long-term mean w/ a least squares regression line and finding the y-intercept at this year, it's only 1". The median snow in Columbia is 0.2" so basically a light dusting is expected in about 50% of winters down there. I personally prefer median to using a simple long-term mean or at least adjusting said average w/ regression to find the true climatology of a particular area.

Performing the same analysis for Charlotte yields a simple long-term mean of 6", but the regression adjusted mean & median are about 4" and are imo far more representative of today's warmer & generally less snowy basic state. At the current rate of snowfall loss in KCLT over the observed record, Charlotte will have Columbia, SC's late 19th century snowfall climatology in roughly 50-75 years from now or roughly by the end of the 21st century. Certainly puts things into perspective...
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thats very interesting! thank you webber i always enjoy your post they have helped me understand things much better
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes Columbia's long-term average is just below 2", however adjusting their long-term mean w/ a least squares regression line and finding the y-intercept at this year, it's only 1". The median snow in Columbia is 0.2" so basically a light dusting is expected in about 50% of winters down there. I personally prefer median to using a simple long-term mean or at least adjusting said average w/ regression to find the true climatology of a particular area.

Performing the same analysis for Charlotte yields a simple long-term mean of 6", but the regression adjusted mean & median are about 4" and are imo far more representative of today's warmer & generally less snowy basic state. At the current rate of snowfall loss in KCLT over the observed record, Charlotte will have Columbia, SC's late 19th century snowfall climatology in roughly 50-75 years from now or roughly by the end of the 21st century. Certainly puts things into perspective...
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Does that mean Columbia will be like Charleston in 50 years
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes Columbia's long-term average is just below 2", ....

Performing the same analysis for Charlotte yields a simple long-term mean of 6",......climatology in roughly 50-75 years from now or roughly by the end of the 21st century. Certainly puts things into perspective...
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Web, I know you are a very intelligent fellow. I really enjoy your excellent analysis of all the models. However, as good as you are, and as good as the models are, neither of you can give a consistently accurate forecast for the next 10 days. Why should we buy into what's gonna happen 50 to 75 years down the road.AND What do these unsubstantiated global warming theories have to do with Jan 2020? You guys have a global warming thread!
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Web, I know you are a very intelligent fellow. I really enjoy your excellent analysis of all the models. However, as good as you are, and as good as the models are, neither of you can give a consistently accurate forecast for the next 10 days. Why should we buy into what's gonna happen 50 to 75 years down the road.AND What do these unsubstantiated global warming theories have to do with Jan 2020? You guys have a global warming thread!
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There is a good argument these aren't unsubstantiated..
 
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