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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

BirdManDoomW said:
I really disagree with what the GFS is showing. I think the pattern favors cold rain but can’t rule out ice on metal objects or trees. It’s way to warm this winter and only gonna scorch more this weekend combined with a wet ground that keeps getting wetter. None of this supports major winter wx accumulations on roads or really any depth to it without melting.
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I had 3 inches of snow on the ground, 4 on raised surfaces, and the roads got covered, in early December after 5 straight days of highs near 60 to 65. The snow fell in anafrontal fashion, after some heavy rain, and it started accumulating during the day with temps above freezing.
 
Seems like the GEFS is the outlier currently with the EPS, GEPS, GFSop, and CFS banging a more favorable drum. Seems like when we had the big pattern shift in 2015 it was with the MJO wandering around the COD and even on the warm sides of it.
 
The problem with ensemble means is that one of the members could be showing exactly what’s going to happen but then you average it against a bunch of members that are not going to happen. We need clusters!

Edit: this is not aimed at anyone’s post, it’s just something that I’ve been thinking about.
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS vs 0Z EPS: Quite a bit colder in SE 1/14 to end of run with stronger Arctic high pressure/+PNA I think. Last full warm SE day : 1/18. Near to BN from then on.
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After looking at the D10 euro panels I could see some hints at what the GFS is showing but obviously nothing like it.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I don’t hate where that Euro run ended..if we can get high pressure to slide in behind that big blue ball exiting the EC we could be $$$..assuming the next wave doesn’t cut with that big ridge hanging around..I’m not even sure what keeps it from doing so, honestly View attachment 29919
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There are a couple waves stretching from the baja to texas. Once the low over the NE relaxes a bit the STJ should reappear as those waves move east. With a 1032 moving through to the north we could eek something out. I don't think the gfs is completely losing its mind with that system it has in south Texas then across the SE but once again we are likely playing the timing game

The big key post say D8 will be getting cold into the region imo and not falling back into the same western trough/monster SE ridge look. The STJ looks primed to send us so many disturbances over time, it may actually be hard to miss out if we get cold enough
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The eps isn't a bad evolution at all to get an overrunning system. Suppress the SE ridge, lower heights off of SE canada, introduce a decent high pressure, leave behind a boundary from not totally clearing the front deep into the gulf, excite the STJ by kicking out energy from that cutoff between the baja and hawaii and you have something. Lots of time left for things to change but its nice to see
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Six Mile Wx said:
The problem with ensemble means is that one of the members could be showing exactly what’s going to happen but then you average it against a bunch of members that are not going to happen. We need clusters!

Edit: this is not aimed at anyone’s post, it’s just something that I’ve been thinking about.
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Then you will like this, a buttload of Euro ensemble members show a strong western ridge by the 20th. Now a few of them have the ridge more west and a few more east than we need for a great winter pattern. But now you can count the few with the big Gulf Alaskan ridge and corresponding big -PNA. The only downside is just by quick glance, it still does appear transient, but I haven’t looked too deeply yet.
 
12z GEFS, ridge is still holding it's position. Again, highly doubt there would be any snow storms with this. If any frozen precip, it would be in the form of freezing rain, but there would have to be a strong high to the north to support a cold surface. I'd just go for a cold rain with maybe some freezing rain at times. It's meh, this is not exciting at all. Of course, this can change but I don't have my hopes. It's hard to believe anything really, we either score are we don't. But it's like if it's not going to do anything, it might as well stay in a warm pattern. I'd rather take that than getting ripped off during a colder pattern.
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GaWx said:
Yeah, TX and N LA get the brunt of a major ZR on the Happy Hour GFS.
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That first system was a little slow to clear keeping our high from sliding eastward in time..but honestly MSLP looking like cash money..idk why it didn’t translate to the surface..but hey, it’s still 240 hours away so ??‍♂️
 
That gfs run was going well until it dropped another system way down the west coast. Its really alone in doing that but with enough Pacific ridging lurking nearby its not impossible. As a fun aside the gfs may try to drop the arctic hammer at the end of the run

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SD said:
That gfs run was going well until it dropped another system way down the west coast. Its really alone in doing that but with enough Pacific ridging lurking nearby its not impossible. As a fun aside the gfs may try to drop the arctic hammer at the end of the run

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if model runs were only reality ... in the meantime, a fun aside ...
 
We keep getting some decent looks in the day 14 range. Better than nothing I guess, but until it gets closer I’m still skeptical.

We could work with this if it’s close: 70953CFB-52DE-49B3-A2CD-AA8A9C3D6A99.jpeg
 
They finally added the year 2020 to the Arctic temp graphs: despite the very strong +AO, it still hasn't dropped to the 1958-2002 average though it came close on 1/1:

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Poimen said:
We keep getting some decent looks in the day 14 range. Better than nothing I guess, but until it gets closer I’m still skeptical.

We could work with this if it’s close: View attachment 29933
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I love how (being sarcastic) the arctic cold reaches far south on the other side of the globe, but yet the arctic cold can never reach far south on our side. I'm skeptical during that time range too. I'm not falling for anything until I see it back to back on every single run. As far as I see it, maybe some cold spells that will be short lived with some minor threats of frozen precip. Other than that, I'm not expecting no winter storms.

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Yeah looks like the hammer drops towards the end of the month like the models have been hinting.


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Starting to really get interested with the storm system this weekend.
Classic setup for a monster nocturnal line.

I remember plenty of times waking up at 2am in Eastern NC watching a monster squall line roar through. It’s been a few years though since the last good one.

AB016764-7F7C-43F8-9B2D-BADC9405B397.pngE7A7E272-DE5B-46F4-A3FA-C5AC6E100F27.png

This is probably thread worthy. Look at this sounding out in front of the 84hr NAM in MS. Extremely legit tornado threat.

linear storm mode (squall line) may help to tone down the tornado threat somewhat. 4766C084-9814-4DBA-A77D-49DDE86DD514.png
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Starting to really get interested with the storm system this weekend.
Classic setup for a monster nocturnal line.

I remember plenty of times waking up at 2am in Eastern NC watching a monster squall line roar through. It’s been a few years though since the last good one.

View attachment 29938View attachment 29939

This is probably thread worthy. Look at this sounding out in front of the 84hr NAM in MS. Extremely legit tornado threat.

linear storm mode (squall line) may help to tone down the tornado threat somewhat. View attachment 29940
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That’s sounding itself is a recipe for significant wind damage with extreme amounts of 1KM shear that could easily be dragged down from high PWAT loaded soundings and CAPE present, also a pretty good sounding for QLCS tornadoes with extreme amounts of SRH, but unidirectional flow and linear forcing make this more of a legit straight line wind threat vs a tornado threat, but anyways there’s more things that could hinder this event in ways
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s sounding itself is a recipe for significant wind damage with extreme amounts of 1KM shear that could easily be dragged down from high PWAT loaded soundings and CAPE present, also a pretty good sounding for QLCS tornadoes with extreme amounts of SRH, but unidirectional flow and linear forcing make this more of a legit straight line wind threat vs a tornado threat, but anyways there’s more things that could hinder this event in ways
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yeah classic squall line. SPC has been all over this threat for days now as well.

Do you know what the blue bracket on the left side of the sounding that says “682 m2s2” is? I assume it is the speed of an air parcel or something?
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