Jon
Member
They’re actually not that great. I can’t understand if this is one guy or a whole company? Either way, they are very back and forth on winter ideas. Flop with the modeling often...
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
They’re actually not that great. I can’t understand if this is one guy or a whole company? Either way, they are very back and forth on winter ideas. Flop with the modeling often...
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whatalife
Moderator
Ummm...
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ummm...
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When the EPS has shown blank signals so far this year while other guidance shows sum, it’s definitely a red flag and makes you think, another “storm” another L like that bowling ball ULL we just had, sure is a bummer but that’s more realistic
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is also the first EPS run that didn't show much of anything, I'd wait for at least a few more model cycles before trying to throw in the towel.
Very Good point
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Few things are more discouraging by day 10 & beyond than seeing a strong, suppressed ridge in the NE Pacific unless of course you like big ridges over the SE US. I'm thankful we at least have a legitimate subtropical jet this winter or we would be in a bigger hole during the expected warm period ~Jan 10-24th.
By the tail ends of the geps and gefs runs both are showing how you start getting out of this pattern. Webb may be on to something, I could see us out of this by 1/20-25
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Bring on the hslc setups, only limiting factor is that instability is at its lowest point during this time, but shear often keeps things going
tennessee storm
Member
Preach on bro give me another January 99 anytime
12Z EPS: cold 1/8-9 followed by pure torch 1/11-14 with temps 10+ warmer than normal (normals for mid-March or later) in most of E US from @SoutheastRidge to @metwannabe to @pcbjr to @Storm5 and folks in between. Who doesn't have pure torch? @Brent because he's far enough away to not be as much AN. He's a very lucky guy! Maybe we should move to DFW?
whatalife
Moderator
They say a picture is worth a thousand words.
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Enjoy your torch as it is the only torch you'll get. This is just about as warm a 5 day anomaly as you'll get in the 11-15 on the EPS or any ensemble mean. Maybe we can challenge some records to make it interesting?
The good news? It is happening at the climo coldest time of year meaning heat we could more easily handle.
I bet dewpoints are going to be through the roof for the time of year. Need to make sure my treadmill is ready to be put back in use.
Storm5
Member
I’m flying through Dallas tomorrow , I’ll make sure to do the torch Dance. Don’t want anyone to feel left out
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Brent
Member
olhausen
Member
How often does the Deep South get snow period? Obviously if a model starts to show some snow potential then it is worth paying attention to. Especially now as we approach our best time period for possible snow storms.
Fwiw EPS still has a storm signal for the 7-8th
Ilovesnow28
Member
From Southeast Texas to Georgia is just sad that just says it all from a winter stand point we are in a horrific snow drought and this maps proves why winter storm warnings are rare for us deep south folks
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow, a legit supercell thunderstorm that’s producing all snow? Umm where can I order one of these?