NCCWOP9077
Member
But the seasonal forecast from the ECMWF for February released yesterday shows BN temps for FEB
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
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But the seasonal forecast from the ECMWF for February released yesterday shows BN temps for FEB
Yeah, as Webb hinted at, the Bleaklies have 2/1-21 averaging ~2-3 AN in the SE. Keep in mind though that they are based on the 0Z run this morning. Had they been run on today's 12Z, they easily could have looked much better in Feb. Also, the cold Feb Euro monthly for much of the US (coldest in about the entire N Hem other than some areas of China/India being close) was based on a run from yesterday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just a little disagreement.
Speaking of the GFS, 18z looks like it’s headed for money at the end of the run with the AK ridge sliding East and some weak -NAO from wavebreaking lows, probably bout to go bonkers with a unusual overrunning look at H5 with a conus wide trough, exactly why it can’t be taken seriously lol
Evolution the gfs shows Would sorta be nice ? 
At least we now have some fantasy storms showing up in the LR. Can't focus on the details but we can see the pattern trying to switch to something favorable.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And it's not even like you can say to look at the ensembles being close to the operational models. The GFS is closest to the GEFS by D10 but the GEFS also wants to diverge after that. At least they agree it's headed near neutral soon.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS took a step towards the EPS & Canadian ensembles in the extended. -PNA, southeast ridge & upstream Aleutian ridge are considerably weaker.
#caving.
#caving.
Cmc ensembles are already in bed with the eps and have the warm pattern dead by the 20th
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ATLwxfan
Member
LovingGulfLows
Member
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It's pretty remarkable how consistent GFS is with enormous amounts of rain in the SE....15+ inches in spots.
Brent
Member
I know I lament about the lack of snow in Dallas
but we could really use some rain, its been blowing up east of us over yall for weeks
That 50/50 low on the 00z GFS is money. Big sprawling high slides down and hangs out for days but that ridge is just a killer. Maybe next time 
ATLwxfan
Member
Revenge of The Ridge on this run. This isn’t ending well.
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ATLwxfan
Member
This winter’s theme of AN with brief cool downs to near normal continues on the 0z GFS. While it’s just one run, it’s very believable given our pattern.
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RollTide18
Member
GFS is painting another severe threat on the day of the National Championship
The 0Z GEFS doesn't look as good as the 18Z GEFS imo but it does look better than the 6Z and 12Z. It still has lingering AN late in the run just like the other runs had and is a little warmer than the 18Z in the SE due to less sfc high pressure
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is an improvement over 18z GEFS not a step backwards imo.
Why?
The wave pattern from the GOA to the SER continues to weaken on the GEFS. The Aleutian & GOA ridge is decaying in a hurry in later GEFS runs & this eastern Russia trough is stronger and further E vs 18z like is the case on the EPS & GEPS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 3 run trend of the GEFS near the end of the run. 0z actually looks a lot better than 18z wrt SER and not just the overall Aleutian Low/NW US trough/SER wave pattern.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This EPS run is even better than yesterday's upbeat suites.
Clearly, winter is over.
Clearly, winter is over.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Snippet from James spann
NO SIGN OF ARCTIC AIR FOR ALABAMA FOR A FEW WEEKS: The pattern will continue to favor below average temperatures for the western and northern states, while the eastern U.S. will be fairly mild through mid-January. But remember, cold weather fans, winter is just getting started and the pattern will flip at some point
NO SIGN OF ARCTIC AIR FOR ALABAMA FOR A FEW WEEKS: The pattern will continue to favor below average temperatures for the western and northern states, while the eastern U.S. will be fairly mild through mid-January. But remember, cold weather fans, winter is just getting started and the pattern will flip at some point
Looking through the members, some of them could be not only cold, but really cold.
Good morning.
ATLwxfan
Member
Welp...cue the fail music.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We are about to find ourselves in a pretty familiar position in mid-late month. Not exactly a warm or "winter is over" look either.
Webb vs judah on tweeter
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Of course right back to the warm phases. That's why I don't buy a pattern change. Maybe a transient window while in the COD.
Welp, Marvelous March it is!
NoSnowATL
Member
Well damn GAWX. Looks like our biggest fear is coming to life. I saw that loop look a few weeks ago.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Awesome! Looks like we'll have another 5-10 day window where the pattern is meh before it turns right back into a turd sandwich!
Yeah, that’s not at all the look I want to see. But it does look like the Euro monthly is stalling before it goes into the outside COD 4/5. Does that mean another high amp 4/5 is not necessarily likely in Feb? Look at it again:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The weaker amplitude signal at the end is mainly due to dispersion, there's definitely a predictability barrier w/ the MJO when it's initialized over the Maritime Continent but it wouldn't surprise me if it returned yet again in February.
If I recall correctly from you, when forecasting from Maritime the Euro tends to be too progressive and not amplified enough and the GEFS kind of the opposite. If I have that right, what are the implications as regards this latest forecast? Not pretty I assume.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO exhibits the most unpredictability when its initialized near or over the Maritime Continent, the EPS is slightly biased towards the Maritime Continent and usually too weak in the West Pac while the opposite is often true for the GEFS. A compromise between the two seems more realistic and the abating +IOD and emergent modoki NINO + cold west Pac has a lot to do w/ the return of convection and the MJO to the Maritime Continent. I think this summary from the CPC does a pretty good job here detailing everything and I agree that the MJO may be overexaggerated due to this low frequency shift that's starting to transpire.
I see it differently. I see a mean into Cape Canaveral with members from Miami to Cape Hatteras.
If u look at this and think it’s going back into the warm phases .. you clearly don’t know what model consensus is ?? this tells me the model doesn’t know wtf is going to happen past like 7-10 days