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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Change definitely looking more likely around the 18-19th per Euro Ensembles.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Does this mean our wintry chances could be at play for the South?
Last edited:
Ilovesnow28
Member
Hmmm not going to get sucked in oh no
FROPA flurries.
Chattownsnow
Member
Change the 1052 H to 1032 H and move the 540 thickness line north 500 miles and I think we have our outcome!
tennessee storm
Member
Don’t fall for that if that did playout...cold chasing moisture
Pictures ??
Looks like people are forgetting the banter and whamby threads
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Good the storm hits on the sevth...
Loved th3
Still on a Island with no support for IP/ZR/SN that far south, altho fwiw some gefs members show mountains getting some snow and even some other parts of the upper SE getting light snow around that time with the front4th run in a row
Low/mid 80’s in south beach, below freezing in the NW panhandle..hell of a front being depicted 
Question for anybody (Webber??); so the PNA, NAO, and AO look horrible for the next couple of weeks. I remember a few years back where they were not good but the EPO was negative. The models constantly showed a warm solution only to go colder as we moved forwards in time. As far as we knew at the time the models did not calculate the EPO effects correctly. Is that still an issue (or was this ever an issue)?
It looks like the EPO will go negative in the short term:
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png
It looks like the EPO will go negative in the short term:
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png
Yeah I’m not even sure what that model is doing is even feasible. Looks really sketchy just scrolling through precip maps
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. WIth the GEFS/EPS divergent MJO forecast the pattern in the extended starts to diverge. Not sure who we should be rooting for either. EPS clearly weakens the GOA ridge but GEFS keeps it going.
Certainly looks like a massive cold front. The GFS has showed it for several runs in a row now (which certainly doesn't mean much). Would be wild if we had this thing sweep through and it shift the pattern.
It would be nice if we could swing a big front through changing our current pattern, unfortunately it’s 10+ days away so we have to assume it’s just just dead wrong. But that doesn’t make it any less fun to look at
The latest Maxar forecast has January at KATL ending up at just over 7 warmer than normal, or near 50.5 F. That would make DJ 2019-20 the warmest since 1931-2 and 4th warmest on record back to 1878-9 behind 1889-90, 1879-80, and 1931-2. Of those other 3, 2 of them (1889-90 and 1931-2) had their coldest month in March, both of which were several degrees BN.
At day 15 a good bit of the ensembles of the Euro actually look really good with a good +PNA.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Are you sure about those warm records way back in 1879, 1899, and 1931? It couldn't have been that warm back then? Sorry Mods move it to banter if necessary
accu35
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Oh yeah I understand, I've been watching these members as well. This may not be anything, but I've seen Gefs ENS show no support with the OP and later on start catching on. That's why I'm still following this system
ATLwxfan
Member
You just have to wonder how this ends. You fully expect the pendulum to swing and the indices to improve but when that might be is anyone’s guess. Seems inconceivable that it persists the entire month of January.
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Things can change in a HURRY as each system clears us to the East. I believe there is some hope for January still just a lot of moving storms in the way of the models.
Definitely a few more active ensembles for the south east on the most recent run of the GEFS all around the 240 mark ..
ATLwxfan
Member
Considering the only other consistent thing we’ve seen on the GFS as of late has been the SER, I’ll gladly take this strung out cold rain/ice/sleet mess that has shown up fairly consistently. Maybe it trends better but at least it’s there.
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GFS is actually moving in a pretty good direction up top toward the end of the run. I think the window for a winter storm will be open from approximately 252 - 300 hours. The STJ has been active. And we're starting to get pretty good consensus around D10ish for a good enough pattern over the top (even if transitory) to deliver a pretty stout cold shot via strong high pressure into the central and eastern US. Don't get me wrong...it's not an ideal pattern. But any time you have a big sprawling high up north with a active STJ, you have to be on the alert for winter weather.
I don't think the high will end up being quite 1050 strong into ND. So, I'm looking for a less suppressive solution, but cold enough and active enough to bring some portions of the SE a decent shot at significant wintry weather. For the first time this winter, I am seeing a legitimate period of interest. We'll see if the key features continue to show up in future runs.
I don't think the high will end up being quite 1050 strong into ND. So, I'm looking for a less suppressive solution, but cold enough and active enough to bring some portions of the SE a decent shot at significant wintry weather. For the first time this winter, I am seeing a legitimate period of interest. We'll see if the key features continue to show up in future runs.
I agree, with the NPAC ridge where it's at, if it can wobble east over AK from time to time it will dump cold HP into the conus.
Makes me cringe looking at the evolution of the GEFS though...the pacific sure looks stable but with a building Scandinavian ridge. Reminiscent of Feb 2018 and 2019. Maybe this is our dominant winter pattern and we have to make the most of it.
SnowNiner
Member
It translates well with the MJO. We're in the crap phases for the foreseeable future. Where at the end it starts to dive into the COD, where it wouldn't surprise me in the least if it comes back out in the maritime phases. I agree, I think this is the pattern for our winter, has been for the last few. No -EPO to save us this time though.
I'm starting to lean that way too....considering this matches up well with what we saw in most of 2018 and 2019. I'm not sure the MJO, even if it moves into 8-1-2, will be enough to shake us out of this. It wasn't enough in 2018 and 2019.
meh
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS & CMC Ensemble are worlds apart. Curious what camp the EPS supports on the 12z suite.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One thing is for sure, this discrepancy is being generated almost entirely within the North Pacific storm track sometime around the beginning of the 3rd week of January, their MJO forecasts are identical.
The CMC ens has been colder than the other two for several days. Unfortunately, it carries the strongest cold bias for the E US of the 3 major ensembles. So, this may be a function of bias.
Yes the Canadian cold bias is pretty evident, but they are worlds apart at 500mb. More than cold bias must be at play here wouldn’t you think?
whatalife
Moderator
Even with its cold bais...nice changes from just 12 hrs ago...
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