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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Nick_boynton_ said:
Clearly the Gfs is seeing a pattern changing event ... something I would expect to happen when the tables turn from such a stuck pattern like this
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The GFS has a low going though the ridge up in the Pacific, which slides it into the Aleutians, which then allows for a split flow near CA as the low pushes east, and by the end of the likely wrong run, there's a ridge going up in the west and a low in the Aleutians. Given the Euro shows something similar to that, we might have a good pattern shift coming late month.
 
accu35 said:
Heres our winter storm again from the happy drunkard
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_43.png
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This is nearing the 240 hour range ... not too shabby .. definitely would rather see it here than at 384
 
Looks like some kinda of system will happen around that“pattern change” time period 18th- 25th. I see that anafront around the 16th that brings the cold and hopeful that low in Mexico’s goes on the GOM around the 21st. Again it’s a long way out and will change but we can still wish.


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NoSnowATL said:
Looks like some kinda of system will happen around that“pattern change” time period 18th- 25th. I see that anafront around the 16th that brings the cold and hopeful that low in Mexico’s goes on the GOM around the 21st. Again it’s a long way out and will change but we can still wish.


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I can remember winter storms of yonder year where cold followed a storm but didn’t precede it. I would have to think those were the types of storms that occurred going into a good pattern and not leaving one ☝..going in or coming out, is the point I’m trying to make I guess. That’s usually how we end up scoring big around here.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can remember winter storms of yonder year where cold followed a storm but didn’t precede it. I would have to think those were the types of storms that occurred going into a good pattern and not leaving one ☝..going in or coming out, is the point I’m trying to make I guess. That’s usually how we end up scoring big around here.
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It isn’t uncommon to get some sort of big storm around the time of a pattern change, so there may be some hope with it.
 
There maybe some truth to the GFS. The GEFS no longer shows the SER pumping on the 17th. There could be a window of opportunity for a winter storm during the 17th-19th time window. A storm system may develop on the tail end of the front from the cutting system at the same time cold air would be in place.
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WxWatch said:
There maybe some truth to the GFS. The GEFS no longer shows the SER pumping on the 17th. There could be a window of opportunity for a winter storm during the 17th-19th time window. A storm system may develop on the tail end of the front from the cutting system at the same time cold air would be in place.
905626576991a598f59dd082d0cd08aa.jpg


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Yeah, cold HP gets dumped in conus day 10-12. #-EPO


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WxWatch said:
There maybe some truth to the GFS. The GEFS no longer shows the SER pumping on the 17th. There could be a window of opportunity for a winter storm during the 17th-19th time window. A storm system may develop on the tail end of the front from the cutting system at the same time cold air would be in place.
905626576991a598f59dd082d0cd08aa.jpg


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I enjoy reading your posts man..... let’s reel in a better pattern...... we can’t stay in a warm pattern all winter
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
I enjoy reading your posts man..... let’s reel in a better pattern...... we can’t stay in a warm pattern all winter
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Exactly I refuse to believe the crazy talk about winter being over .. there are such things as back loaded winter and this could very well be the case .. we all know there’s equal and opposite reactions and we had a big warm unfavorable period that will eventually be countered by a (speculatory) big cold and favorable pattern with equal must and might ... I think we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and we need to be happy to see that
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Exactly I refuse to believe the crazy talk about winter being over .. there are such things as back loaded winter and this could very well be the case .. we all know there’s equal and opposite reactions and we had a big warm unfavorable period that will eventually be countered by a (speculatory) big cold and favorable pattern with equal must and might ... I think we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and we need to be happy to see that
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I’m very skeptical because the GFS has no support with this setup. Plus it’s the GFS (FV3)
 
We're gonna have to see first if whether that's a false start on a pattern change or not before anything else is discussed there. That could well be a false start on the pattern changing for colder weather a couple weeks early, in March.

Although I guess its nice that there have been a couple fantasy storms in the recent days in about that time period.
 
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We know where this is headed, gives me memories to last year where the ridge would never seem to leave, that trough that would cause the “weakness” in the ridge has slowed and allowed a more consolidated ridge these past runs, this is why you can’t pay attention to snow on the GFS last a certain amount of hours 1A96B9D6-10CD-4C50-BACA-0CB0C4761A50.gif0EA32D98-C520-40F3-826D-1A3B6DD480C6.gif
 
I still think the ridge will get beat back a bit with colder air around hour 250+, (some ensemble support) but a winter storm like the gfs showed and is probably about to show is unlikely
 
I mean don’t get me wrong, it’s nice to finally see some high pressure dominating the CONUS out in the long range but I’m still pretty turned off by how progressive everything is and not to mention the giant east coast ridge that refuses to budge on the OP’s..Jan 20’th’ish is too early.. this will take at least the rest of January to get out of imo
 
Heights can be deceiving at times. The column can actually be warmer relative to normal higher up in the atmosphere with dense cold slipping underneath.

Look at the above average 500mb heights around Atlanta at 264 and see that the surface temp is 10+ c and the temp at 500 is around -10c, but you look at the above average heights at 500mb over South Texas under where frozen is showing up and the surface is around -1 to -2 c and the 500mb temp is around -9 to -10c.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
As much as I want that to happen, there is no ensemble support from the gefs, snow mean looks very meh
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Possible reason for this, the GFS snow maps there are showing freezing rain/sleet as snow. The GEFS map may only be showing snowfall. If you look at the soundings under all that snow they are all freezing rain/sleet soundings with surface temps in some of those locations in South Texas in the 20s with 850s well above freezing.
 
John1122 said:
Possible reason for this, the GFS snow maps there are showing freezing rain/sleet as snow. The GEFS map may only be showing snowfall. If you look at the soundings under all that snow they are all freezing rain/sleet soundings with surface temps in some of those locations in South Texas in the 20s with 850s well above freezing.
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The GEFS doesn’t even really support any type of wintry precip around the gulf coast like the GFS is showing around that time, almost all members show rain, ofc it could always change
 
I'm ready for baseball season.. :)

Edit: sign Donaldson already, somebody. Based on his career path, he deserves every frickin' penny.
 
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Do we need another thread? We already have one for January. Don't turn this into the other weather forum. Don't need a thread every time it gets warm, cold a drizzle or wind blows. Used to be a thread was made for storms only besides general weather.
 
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