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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Nick_boynton_ said:
If you’ve tracked storms in past years you would know the threats 5-7 days out are very sneaky and although you don’t see operational support you look for ways a storm could possibly form both the Gfs and euro have the pieces on the table for something to happen January 5-7.. those type of threats can sneak up on us as we usually see our winter storms show up within the 5 day mark that’s why I think it’s at least a decent potential to watch ... yes a 2-3 day cold blast isn’t a pattern change I completely agree all I’m saying is that no model had been correct in the pattern in the long range and there is a lot of minute things that can change like ridging placement out west and end up giving us a much colder pattern
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Yeah they can be sneaky sometimes. I think the Euro ensembles gave some on this board a general 5% chance of squeaking out an inch around around the 7th.. which is still a little high imo. Many here have been tracking winter storms for 10++ years so staring this holy grail of suck pattern in the face is sort of the big story right now. Because it’s as bad as advertised..edit: and while models do the flippy flop and jump around, I would say that the one consistent feature on them all is that west based -EPO, which is the nail in our proverbial coffin. We need serious help
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah they can be sneaky sometimes. I think the Euro ensembles gave some on this board a general 5% chance of squeaking out an inch around around the 7th.. which is still a little high imo. Many here have been tracking winter storms for 10++ years so staring this holy grail of suck pattern in the face is sort of the big story right now. Because it’s as bad as advertised..edit: and while models do the flippy flop and jump around, I would say that the one consistent feature on them all is that west based -EPO, which is the nail in our proverbial coffin. We need serious help
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Respectable .. where’s the -NAO when you really need it .. let’s hope the models continue to do the floppy flips in the medium to long range to help us out a bit
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Respectable .. where’s the -NAO when you really need it .. let’s hope the models continue to do the floppy flips in the medium to long range to help us out a bit
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There's not even a hint of blocking as far as the eye can see. We really need that to change to help us out, particularly if the Pacific isn't going to play ball. Assuming it's not going to play ball.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah they can be sneaky sometimes. I think the Euro ensembles gave some on this board a general 5% chance of squeaking out an inch around around the 7th.. which is still a little high imo. Many here have been tracking winter storms for 10++ years so staring this holy grail of suck pattern in the face is sort of the big story right now. Because it’s as bad as advertised..edit: and while models do the flippy flop and jump around, I would say that the one consistent feature on them all is that west based -EPO, which is the nail in our proverbial coffin. We need serious help
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There really is no persistent feature on the models except it being very transient. Loop the Euro from a few days ago to the end of the run.
 
Rain Cold said:
There's not even a hint of blocking as far as the eye can see. We really need that to change to help us out, particularly if the Pacific isn't going to play ball. Assuming it's not going to play ball.
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Exactly.... and I think 2 different things/issues/scenarios/events/insert word are being discussed here. 1) long term sustainable cold weather pattern, which is not being shown thinks to the -epo location and no blocking whatsoever on any model and 2) a perfectly timed winter weather threat, that can occur with a tall pac ridge even w/o blocking, tPV sliding south just a tad wouldn't hurt either, anyway this seems possible in the short range. Probably a good idea to reference which we are speaking of when we make comments about model projections
 
Arcc said:
There really is no persistent feature on the models except it being very transient. Loop the Euro from a few days ago to the end of the run.
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Euro being the lesser of the two evils. Looks workable. I mean what’s the driving factor for what’s going on in the Pacific? Because if the level of suck is relying solely on MJO phase then I’m not so optimistic AEE350D7-B14B-442E-882A-88A8380C62DE.pngFB7E0E17-0579-4B1B-9420-55172F21A272.png
 
GaWx said:
There’s cold and snow showing up for only 6 days out. Why isn’t this being focused on in this thread right now? Forget about the LR and look at what may be just ahead, folks.
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Right? If we can get snow within the next week, it can torch the rest of the winter for all I care. This upcoming potential is why I never really ever wave the white flag in winter because even in patterns that aren’t great, we can still score.
 
Parker said:
I am starting to get vert excited about the 5-6 day period. Moisture is increasing and ensemble support is increasing. This is how most of our threats usually happen, by popping up into this window. Can’t wait to see the 12z GEFS
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Yeah how often does the deep south get a snow that is modeled 7+ days out. Not very often.
 
GaWx said:
There’s cold and snow showing up for only 6 days out. Why isn’t this being focused on in this thread right now? Forget about the LR and look at what may be just ahead, folks.
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We can do both in here, after all it is the January discussion thread.... also probably been burned too many times, once the potential threat shows up consistently over the next 24 hours or so, traffic may pick up.
 
GaWx said:
There’s cold and snow showing up for only 6 days out. Why isn’t this being focused on in this thread right now? Forget about the LR and look at what may be just ahead, folks.
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At the moment looks like a light event for some if it verifys not expecting nothing in my neck of the woods probably cold and dry here
 
This 12Z GFS threat for 1/5 would be enough to exceed all of last winter in many areas of the SE should it verify.

Edit: kudos owed to @Webberweather53 should this verify?
 
I had a feeling a couple of days ago this period had some potential with the screaming upper level jet winds and nice cold air mass(850s are really really cold when the moisture comes in). Probably just a light event, but I'll take that over nothing anyday.
 
John1122 said:
Euro pops a +PNA and fires some deep cold our way.
ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png
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Ill go to my grave saying this. But of all the TCs, for the SE nothing does us more good than a +PNA. First and foremost on my wish list. Then I care about 50/50 lows, neg nao etc. Nothing does us more good getting cold here than a well positioned ridge up the NW and Canadian Coastline.
 
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