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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jon said:
???? It’s not like it predicted cold, it predicted normal to +0.5 temps for the SE for Jan

I’m a CFS thumper. It’s generally a good model during winter and I’ll continue to stand by that. This month will obviously bust. Anyone who follows the CFS knows it’s not a good model overall and has a ton of issues, but their 3-to-1 day lead monthly forecasts work out more than they don’t during the winter months.


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I wasn’t calling you a thumper , I know you post it often but not like some of the cold agenda pushers . They are annoying and it drive me nuts . We all know who they are in Twitter world


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FWIW The CFSv2 still has the end of the month looking BN and the month of February BN. So huge with caution or at your on risk of failure.
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These changes inside 72 hours are pretty insane. Went from a meh day in the 50s-60s to the possibility of rain/snow in about 5 runs. If the 12z ECMWF follows suit w/ this trend on the GFS & other high res guidance, I think we can say this is a legit threat at least if you're in the NW piedmont of NC.

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I’m beginning to think it might take a bigger storm, ie Severe weather, to help break the pattern up a bit. Problem is, MJO will still be raging bad. Lol. I will say tho, if we keep Canada cold, and I think we will, that would really help once we get other help with the MJO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
These changes inside 72 hours are pretty insane. Went from a meh day in the 50s-60s to the possibility of rain/snow in about 5 runs. If the 12z ECMWF follows suit w/ this trend on the GFS & other high res guidance, I think we can say this is a legit threat at least if you're in the NW piedmont of NC.

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This is the time period that piqued my interest for over a week. 2nd trough dives down quick enough following the first one to give us a chance. If the ridge out west was a little stronger forcing the trough more north to south vs north to SE a lot of us would have had a shot. Good to see that at least some may see some wintry out of it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah lol can't blame them. It's almost time to pull the trigger on a thread given this is now within 48 hours.
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Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
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I think it’s due to a strong ULL in the Great Lakes, while that’s helping pull it north and create WAA, it’s also strengthening it to create a deeper low. We need the two pieces of energy the separate more if we are going to see anything.


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Cad Wedge NC said:
Time to ditch the globals and start looking at the high resolution models. This one could work out for some of us. One thing I can't understand is how the models show the surface temps warming dramatically during the day with thicknesses falling all day. Perhaps @Webberweather53 can explain.
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Deep layer (500-1000mb) thickness is directly proportional to the average temperature in the layer, but this is over a layer that's 5-6km thick. Cold advection in the mid-upper portions of this layer will be stronger than low-level warm advection here, creating lower thicknesses. However, right at the surface, temperatures are dictated by different processes and will actually warm somewhat due to increased insolation, low-level warm advection, latent heat release, & there could be some added impact from downsloping as the low-level wind field shifts to westerly directly behind this system on Tue afternoon.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think it’s due to a strong ULL in the Great Lakes, while that’s helping pull it north and create WAA, it’s also strengthening it to create a deeper low. We need the two pieces of energy the separate more if we are going to see anything.


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I get the WAA at the 925mb level and up. However, surface winds are from the NW during the entire event.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Deep layer (500-1000mb) thickness is directly proportional to the average temperature in the layer, but this is over a layer that's 5-6km thick. Cold advection in the mid-upper portions of this layer will be stronger than low-level warm advection here, creating lower thicknesses. However, right at the surface, temperatures are dictated by different processes and will actually warm somewhat due to increased insolation, low-level warm advection, latent heat release, & there could be some added impact from downsloping as the low-level wind field shifts to westerly directly behind this system on Tue afternoon.
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Thanks man, I didn't even take down-sloping into account.
 
Even though this pattern still kinda sucks, the GEFS has been backing away from the huge -PNA it showed around mid-month. The entire wave pattern in the North Pacific is more amplified and characterized by shorter wavelengths than previous runs, that certainly helps. Our TPV is also lurking just north of the Hudson Bay. I certainly don't think the pattern will change this early but the TPV sitting in our backyard is a huge sign that we need to be cautious going into the latter portions of the month. A few minor tweaks make all the difference between a blowtorch and an extremely cold pattern

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Tornadoes anyone? Severe weather setup looking better for next weekend bs0500.conus (1).jpg

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With this potential D2-3 system, we better hope rates are good if it does come to fruition considering the soil temps are on fire and BL temps will be marginal if they're good enough at all. I know people laugh off soil temps a lot, but they definitely matter when rates are light and BL temps are iffy. Combine that with daytime sunlight (which fortunately is about as small of a factor as it ever is given it's early January) and you have the unholy trifecta. If rates are heavy, it will be most helpful.
 
superjames1992 said:
Do you by chance know how it looks further east? I fear it may be too warm in the BL out this way. I guess it's time I re-up my subscriptions. This is looking somewhat promising for the foothills and NW Piedmont, and obviously S VA.
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Unfortunately you get major drop offs as you go further East. RDU for example has 1 member
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I enjoy following the extremes of indices, even those not desirable. The first image below shows the GEFS predicting close to a -2 PNA for 1/14. How rare would that be in DJF? Very. Ignoring what looks like an erroneous -2 on 1/10/2019, there has been only one period of sub -2 PNA during DJF the last 30 years: 12/20-1/2010! So while we have one of the strongest winter phase 4/5 MJO on record, we will have one of the strongest winter -PNAs on record along with about a +3 AO (see below) and a +NAO (see below)! It doesn’t get much worse than that combo for SE cold lovers. It’s too bad we don’t prefer warmth because this is a literal jackpot of indices for that as I’d bet we won’t see another day in our lifetimes of this bad a combo (this could easily be a one in several hundred year worst combo of indices!!);

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Ollie Williams said:
interesting. I wonder what algorithm is better. I'm going with the less snowy one, but that makes me feel better.
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Well, that decides WeatherModels.com vs. WeatherBell for me. I like more modeled snow. Haha.

As for which one is actually more accurate, it's never a bad idea to go with the one that shows the least snow, haha, but I do think models sometimes overplay warm BL temps.
 
Congrats to KATL, which had its first freeze sine 12/19 with its 32 this morning! Also, this means that the worst they could do for coldest of the month is tied with 1937's 32 for the warmest coldest Jan low on record (back to 1879). So, we can rest easy that Jan of 2020 will not set a new record warmest coldest even if it were to stay mild late month. Yay, this is cause to celebrate!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal for February:

I really hope this verifies.


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The z500 forecast from the Euro looks like a blend of February 1995, 2003, & 2015, all of which were weak-moderate El Ninos with +NAO/-EPO.

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Fwiw, the composite of these 3 is very cold

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Wow that is kinda surprising, looks like the CFS. I hope it does as well.


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Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal for February:

I really hope this verifies.


View attachment 29740

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View attachment 29742


The z500 forecast from the Euro looks like a blend of February 1995, 2003, & 2015, all of which were weak-moderate El Ninos with +NAO/-EPO.

View attachment 29746

Fwiw, the composite of these 3 is very cold

View attachment 29747


#graspingatstraws #fabfebruarywillsaveus
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I hope that verifies too, it looks too good to be true though. But maybe we can win for once next month.

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