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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

GaStorm said:
I thought you were going to the mountains?
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I was but when the forecast said snow wouldn’t start until 6 I balled. Having 3 little ones with me while going around the mountain at night isn’t something I wanted to do. I was hoping it would start earlier.


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NoSnowATL said:
I was but when the forecast said snow wouldn’t start until 6 I balled. Having 3 little ones with me while going around the mountain at night isn’t something I wanted to do. I was hoping it would start earlier.


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I'm now near Young Harris and there is a dusting on the ground. It was snowing good on the way here.
20200104_182404.jpg
 
NoSnowATL said:
I will definitely follow this to see how accurate it is. Thanks


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Hope it fares better than the SAI Cohen model. But if it's showing a cold pattern in the east, I have my [x] Doubts!
 
Ollie Williams said:
If anybody is interested, Dr. Paul Roundy https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1 created a model based on MJO progression. I recommend testing it out. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Very nice look beyond 21st/ish
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Lines up with the CFS MJO forecast from 12/31, cold returning Jan 25-Feb 4 with a move to Phase 7-8-1. Not bad considering the cfs has been showing this since the turn of the new year, good to see his model shows the same


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Jon said:
Lines up with the CFS MJO forecast from 12/31, cold returning Jan 25-Feb 4 with a move to Phase 7-8-1. Not bad considering the cfs has been showing this since the turn of the new year, good to see his model shows the same


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How good was the CFS in November and December?


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Jon said:
Lines up with the CFS MJO forecast from 12/31, cold returning Jan 25-Feb 4 with a move to Phase 7-8-1. Not bad considering the cfs has been showing this since the turn of the new year, good to see his model shows the same


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Looks like this may be our preverbal light at the end of the tunnel ... the long long tunnel ... but honestly I’m fine with thinks coming together before we get our best climo snow month getting going
 
The most recent monthly Euro MJO forecast isn't encouraging with a suggestion that the MJO will not even make it to phase 7 before turning back around toward 4/5 again (see image below). However, if we ignore the idea that the very warm Indonesian SSTs might uncharacteristically attract the MJO back into 4/5 before ever getting to 7, MJO history for very strong 4/5 (like what is coming) says this is highly unlikely to verify based on the 15 very high amp winter phase 4/5 cases since 1975:

- Other than 1 of the 15 backtracking after only 9 days to 5 though for only 2 days (Feb of 1985), all 15 (including that one) subsequently went into phase 7, 13 of the 15 went into 7-8, 10 of the 15 went into 7-8-1, and 8 of the 15 went into 7-8-1-2 before coming back to phases 4/5. Keep in mind that phases 7-8-1-2 could be partly or even all inside the COD.

- Average # of days duration from leaving outside COD phase 5 to going back into outside COD phase 4 or 5 (ignoring that 2 day backtrack in 1985): 57 days with shortest ones being 15, 17, and 22 days and other 12 being 30+ days. Median is 42 days.

1578190123748.png
 
GaWx said:
The most recent monthly Euro MJO forecast isn't encouraging with a suggestion that the MJO will not even make it to phase 7 before turning back around toward 4/5 again (see image below). However, if we ignore the idea that the very warm Indonesian SSTs might uncharacteristically attract the MJO back into 4/5 before ever getting to 7, MJO history for very strong 4/5 (like what is coming) says this is highly unlikely to verify based on the 15 very high amp winter phase 4/5 cases since 1975:

- Other than 1 of the 15 backtracking after only 9 days to 5 though for only 2 days (Feb of 1985), all 15 (including that one) subsequently went into phase 7, 13 of the 15 went into 7-8, 10 of the 15 went into 7-8-1, and 8 of the 15 went into 7-8-1-2 before coming back to phases 4/5. Keep in mind that phases 7-8-1-2 could be partly or even all inside the COD.

- Average # of days duration from leaving outside COD phase 5 to going back into outside COD phase 4 or 5 (ignoring that 2 day backtrack in 1985): 57 days with shortest ones being 15, 17, and 22 days and other 12 being 30+ days. Median is 42 days.

View attachment 29667
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So it’s the Euro vs CFS? Which one will verify?


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Hmmm thinking FFC has a problem with their Wind Chill Grids, based upon the forecast for my area...

Windy. Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming clear. Lows in the lower 30s. northwest winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Wind chill readings around 120 below zero |
 
gawxnative said:
Hmmm thinking FFC has a problem with their Wind Chill Grids, based upon the forecast for my area...

Windy. Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming clear. Lows in the lower 30s. northwest winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Wind chill readings around 120 below zero |
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Wow, didn’t know Between was between Jupiter and Saturn. Stay warm my friend!


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GaWx said:
The most recent monthly Euro MJO forecast isn't encouraging with a suggestion that the MJO will not even make it to phase 7 before turning back around toward 4/5 again (see image below). However, if we ignore the idea that the very warm Indonesian SSTs might uncharacteristically attract the MJO back into 4/5 before ever getting to 7, MJO history for very strong 4/5 (like what is coming) says this is highly unlikely to verify based on the 15 very high amp winter phase 4/5 cases since 1975:

- Other than 1 of the 15 backtracking after only 9 days to 5 though for only 2 days (Feb of 1985), all 15 (including that one) subsequently went into phase 7, 13 of the 15 went into 7-8, 10 of the 15 went into 7-8-1, and 8 of the 15 went into 7-8-1-2 before coming back to phases 4/5. Keep in mind that phases 7-8-1-2 could be partly or even all inside the COD.

- Average # of days duration from leaving outside COD phase 5 to going back into outside COD phase 4 or 5 (ignoring that 2 day backtrack in 1985): 57 days with shortest ones being 15, 17, and 22 days and other 12 being 30+ days. Median is 42 days.

View attachment 29667
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EURO can’t even get a 500mb pattern correct from 180 hours out.. I’m not too worried
 
Next weekend system is starting to get my attention little more now. Past few gfs runs is showing like a severe/strong storm setup to possibly back end snow.
 
Got to watch this one
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png
 
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