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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Webberweather53 said:
Even in this day and age, there’s almost no predictability when it comes to the tropospheric polar vortex, it truly is a huge unknown in medium-long range forecasting. Seeing it continue to meander around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the propensity for legitimate, highly amplified ridging in the North Pacific and Alaska which could send it southward in a hurry, should give most a good reason to be very cautious from the 3rd week of January and beyond. It would not take much at all for us to completely flip the switch from a mild pattern being modeled to an extremely cold one reminiscent of Feb 2014 & 2015.
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I agree, I still think we are in an unique situation where is could get very cold or torch.
 
18Z GEFS says operation thaw SE 1/11-14 after chill 1/7-8.
 
pcbjr said:
:(
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That's been the model consensus. So, that's nothing really new. And it shouldn't be a surprise with -AAM, MJO moving into 4-5. and still no -AO or -NAO.
The 2nd half of January is up for grabs as Webb said. But folks in the extreme SE like us will have our hands full hoping to get rid of the SER at least until the MJO can get out of the Maritime Continent.
 
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
11d496fc59b3119590cc07c0813a374f.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
11d496fc59b3119590cc07c0813a374f.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Looking better for the Tuesday snow.
 
Jon said:
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
11d496fc59b3119590cc07c0813a374f.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah the height changes over the Pacific NW are laughable. Big trough to big ridge on an ensemble mean inside day 6 is inexcusable.
 
Im pushing all my nickels in on a Jan 2000, 10 day grand stand centered in an abysmal winter. Only card we can play from our vantage point at this time. The Pac is putrid and appearing very stubborn. Lets all hope and pray that ridging can set up futher east. Cause if it doesnt, our goose is cooked.
 
What’s driving this -EPO and it’s positioning? I mean it has to be more than “models just don’t know whether to place it to the east or to the west.”CBEF148D-C9E2-41E9-B0C4-B27C3293F085.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What’s driving this -EPO and it’s positioning? I mean it has to be more than “models just don’t know whether to place it to the east or to the west.”View attachment 29217
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Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
 
Stormdoc said:
Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
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Even if right:
- We should have winter ~1/7-9
- Winter could still return at any point after 1/15. The 2nd half of Jan is very much up in the air. Let's see if the MJO could then get its tail out of phase 5 for starters.
 
Stormdoc said:
Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
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Not really. As many of us has stated the mean is smoothed average of the ensembles which can be skewed by member strength and timing. I haven't checked but the GEFS may be seeing one shortwave in a progressive pattern yet because of timing differences be skewing the result over a week span.
 
GaWx said:
Even if right:
- We should have winter ~1/7-9
- Winter could still return at any point after 1/15. The 2nd half of Jan is very much up in the air. Let's see if the MJO could then get its tail out of phase 5 for starters.
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Oh I agree I was just using some hyperbole to express my view of the GEFS. I wouldn’t believe it at all if it were not for Feb 18, which really did have a pattern that did not budge for a month.
 
Arcc said:
Not really. As many of us has stated the mean is smoothed average of the ensembles which can be skewed by member strength and timing. I haven't checked but the GEFS may be seeing one shortwave in a progressive pattern yet because of timing differences be skewing the result over a week span.
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I expect you are right and I have noted over the years that the ensembles tend to repeat and ruminate on the same pattern after day 10
 
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