Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Jon]

EPS and GEFS with widespread negative 850mb anomalies 10-11 days after Dec 27 when we were in MJO Phase 7. Lines up perfectly with the RMM Phase 7 lagged 850mb temp composites (lag 2,3) and Baxter et al. research. The research actually notes Central AND eastern cold 850s which is exactly what we’re to experience.

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[WxWatch]

Lol the GFS trying to bring cold and flurries in on the 5th.

At least it's in the 7 day window. If that verifies, that's a win, better than no snow!

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[SD]

EPS and GEFS with widespread negative 850mb anomalies 10-11 days after Dec 27 when we were in MJO Phase 7. Lines up perfectly with the RMM Phase 7 lagged 850mb temp composites (lag 2,3) and Baxter et al. research. The research actually notes Central AND eastern cold 850s which is exactly what we’re to experience.

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Certainly looks like we are headed toward a day or 2 where we struggle through the 30s around here. May pull out a mid teens low too

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[KyloG]

Speaking of useless -EPO’s. And we spent all of Feb in 8-1-2. Makes we cringe that we may spend the next 2 months in a similar pattern.

 

[Webberweather53]

Speaking of useless -EPO’s. And we spent all of Feb in 8-1-2. Makes we cringe that we may spend the next 2 months in a similar pattern.

View attachment 29202

A -EPO & a -NAO during a NINO February is usually game, set, match for cold around here however the placement of that ridge was suppressed & we were left w/ a very warm pattern.

We technically didn't get shutout but still very meh.

 

[SD]

CFS weekly is solid for the last week of January into February. Welp just looked and it rolls a decent mjo through 7-2, probably not going to work out

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[Webberweather53]

A significant piece of the TPV starts to drop down towards the Baffin Bay by day 8-9 on the GFS. The evolution of the TPV is still the biggest wildcard the next few weeks and its predictability is severely limited. Just a week or so ago, it appeared that the TPV would park over Alaska, instead it’s going to end up going over Greenland

 

[SD]

A significant piece of the TPV starts to drop down towards the Baffin Bay by day 8-9 on the GFS. The evolution of the TPV is still the biggest wildcard the next few weeks and its predictability is severely limited. Just a week or so ago, it appeared that the TPV would park over Alaska, instead it’s going to end up going over Greenland

Pretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes

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[GaWx]

I had felt and said that the SE as a whole would be lucky to average N as opposed to AN normal for 1/1-15 thanks to transitory cold shots. The bias corrected model consensus is telling me to stick with this idea with the best chance for AN in the deep SE thanks to more influence from SER in the means. Keep in mind that model consensus has had a lot of trouble for quite awhile with not having the SER strong enough in the medium range. And with -AAM, that risk is very much in play imo.

Consistent with this, I would be surprised if my area and nearby isn’t AN for 1/1-15 even if the deep SE is able to get several days of BN within.

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes

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The one constant between all those runs is a huge ridge over the N Pacific and Alaska, details on this ridge truly matter and mean all the difference between an early start to spring or a monster arctic outbreak with widespread 10s & 20s in the SE US. I personally don’t see much room for anything in between.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Pretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes

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I’d love to see that -AO verify. I wonder if we could get a -EPO and -AO to link up if it would encourage the +PNA we need? It seems the one and only thing the GFS can hold onto from run to run is a ridge in the east and a trough in the west. Smh

 

[ForsythSnow]

With the return of the cold blast on the GFS the GEFS returns to some garbage solutions again like snow in Tampa.

 

[GaWx]

Related to my last post, below is the 1-15 day period per the 12Z GEFS without correction for cold bias. Of course, this includes a very warm first 2 days but the end looks mild, too. So, I don’t think moving this forward 2 days would cool it much. And again, this is not bias corrected. The best shot at solid cold is within 1/6-9 and it does look to get pretty cold for the bulk of that period. So, the good news is that the bulk of the SE shouldn’t be totally shut out of a nice cold period within 1/1-15, thus likely saving us from a torch in the means for 1/1-15:

 

[SD]

The one constant between all those runs is a huge ridge over the N Pacific and Alaska, details on this ridge truly matter and mean all the difference between an early start to spring or a monster arctic outbreak with widespread 10s & 20s in the SE US. I personally don’t see much room for anything in between.

Yeah it's really going to be feast or famine here with that much amplification of the Pacific.

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[LovingGulfLows]

Am i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?

 

[SD]

Am i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?

Its close but the trough is still too positive to get anything going. Put a little more energy into the base of the trough, slow it down, tilt it neutral and you get something

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[ForsythSnow]

Am i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?

If it was much more negative at that point I'd like it, but since it's too positive it won't do much. It's impressive still to see that intensity.

 

[SD]

Its close but the trough is still too positive to get anything going. Put a little more energy into the base of the trough, slow it down, tilt it neutral and you get something

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You can actually see the energy diving in from the plains then moving off the east coast make an attempt. The kicker moving in along the west coast keeps things moving and the energy is just strong out enough so the trough stays meh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at this actual good trend on the gefs, building towards a +PNA, this may be something to watch for wintry wx other than cold

 

[Ollie Williams]

Get the Euro to dig more positively and it may get interesting. Some snow across W NC this run