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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
One of the most stable patterns in history setting up. Right in the heart of winter.
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When practically all of the indices are forecasted to be in their warm mode for for the SE for a pretty long period of time (and in some cases very strong), this is not a surprise.

accu35 said:
gfs_T850a_seus_7.png

When you say "with no signs of cold air" 36 hours out is my sign of cold air
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Indeed. even in an AN dominated mid winter, it still has lots of pleasant evenings for walking opportunities. This includes the last 2 evenings as well as 6 days starting tomorrow evening, which includes a downright cold walk on Wednesday, before the dominating warmer comes in starting a week from today. Then, expect mild to dominate the subsequent 10 days, which takes us to 1/20. By then, it is too far out for even semi-reliable model guidance. However, Euro weeklies are suggesting a cool-down to close to normal winter temps for ~1/20-2/15. At least one can hope, right? Consistent with this, the MJO should be out of the high amplitude warm phases of 4 and 5 by then.

Regardless of the wx, I enjoy this time of year so much in contrast to the warm and muggy season! Enjoy it while it is here as the winter will be over before you know it!
 
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SD said:
Gotta think we are going to see some january records fall between the 10th and 16th. I think the 79 at rdu is in big trouble

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We already blew through the October record high in October 2019 (topping out at 100), so why not set another monthly record a few months later?
 
SD said:
Gotta think we are going to see some january records fall between the 10th and 16th. I think the 79 at rdu is in big trouble
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Parts of GA/FL have already hit records today:

- KJAX has today hit at least 85, which ties it with 1/30/2013 for the warmest in Jan and is tied for the warmest for the period 11/25-2/2 with record going back all the way to 1871!!
- KMCN has obliterated their record high for today with 81+ vs the old record going back to 1892 of only 76!
- KSAV has broken a daily record with a high of at least 80, breaking the old record of 79. To compare, last year they had record highs of 79 on both 1/1 and 1/2.
- KAGS has at least tied their record high of 80 for today.
- KGNV has hit at least 83, which is only 1 F from the daily record of 84.

Wow!
 
The warmth today was a little underwhelming here today but maybe I had unrealistic expectations. We topped out at 60 briefly today and are now down to 57. Rain has been abundant though.
 
EmersonGA said:
The warmth today was a little underwhelming here today but maybe I had unrealistic expectations. We topped out at 60 briefly today and are now down to 57. Rain has been abundant though.
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We made it to 73 today, I dont know what is more depressing, the fact that we were at 73 on Jan 3rd or that it is still several degrees shy of the record high for this date....
 
GaWx said:
Parts of GA/FL have already hit records today:

- KJAX has today hit at least 85, which ties it with 1/30/2013 for the warmest in Jan and is tied for the warmest for the period 11/25-2/2 with record going back all the way to 1871!!
- KMCN has obliterated their record high for today with 81+ vs the old record going back to 1892 of only 76!
- KSAV has broken a daily record with a high of at least 80, breaking the old record of 79. To compare, last year they had record highs of 79 on both 1/1 and 1/2.
- KAGS has at least tied their record high of 80 for today.
- KGNV has hit at least 83, which is only 1 F from the daily record of 84.

Wow!
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Here you go, Larry ...

..THE GAINESVILLE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 3 2020

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1890 TO 2020
...............................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 84R
 
As they say, and these words are relating to the SE, it sucks to suck, this pattern we’re going into takes a few weeks to get rid of, just look at last feb for example
 
pcbjr said:
Here you go, Larry ...

..THE GAINESVILLE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 3 2020

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1890 TO 2020
...............................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 84R
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When’s the last time you had a record low?


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DarkKnight said:
Well the 18z gfs does away with some the Southeast ridge around day 10.View attachment 29625
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Right now I would be suprised if we see the SER as strong as what we’ve seen on the recent models. The reason being is that they are still showing plenty of rainfall over the next couple of weeks due to the active STJ, and that active STJ does seem to help keep the SER in check a bit. While we certainly will see significantly above normal temperatures, I wonder how much of it will be driven my mild overnight lows
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Zonal ? with the vortex so close you can smell it but can’t benefit from it?
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False! Western trough retrogrades so that you don't get the mean trough axis and cold air directed into the SW. You still don't have the vortex overhead, but when does it snow with the PV in your back yard? You have an active pattern with high pressure up north, cold nearby, and even the opportunity for a big storm somewhere.

Also, with a little help from the Atlantic side, we could be looking at a really good pattern shaping up. As is, it's not frigid and blizzardy, but it's a lot better than the crap we're gonna see over the next 10 days. And it's a LOT closer to what we are looking for.
 
Rain Cold said:
False! Western trough retrogrades so that you don't get the mean trough axis and cold air directed into the SW. You still don't have the vortex overhead, but when does it snow with the PV in your back yard? You have an active pattern with high pressure up north, cold nearby, and even the opportunity for a big storm somewhere.

Also, with a little help from the Atlantic side, we could be looking at a really good pattern shaping up. As is, it's not frigid and blizzardy, but it's a lot better than the crap we're gonna see over the next 10 days. And it's a LOT closer to what we are looking for.
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My apologies. I’ve been in the bourbon tonight and when I see red, yellow and orange running horizontal nearby it screams zonal! I need reds and oranges shooting vertical up the west coast before I get too excited ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My apologies. I’ve been in the bourbon tonight and when I see red, yellow and orange running horizontal nearby it screams zonal! I need reds and oranges shooting vertical up the west coast before I get too excited ?
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It's quasi-zonal. But you have a split stream. Cold high pressure sliding by up north and Disturbances in the southern jet to the south. It's honestly not a bad look and not too far away from a really good look. Will it trend well from here or revert back to the ridge of doom look?
 
Rain Cold said:
False! Western trough retrogrades so that you don't get the mean trough axis and cold air directed into the SW. You still don't have the vortex overhead, but when does it snow with the PV in your back yard? You have an active pattern with high pressure up north, cold nearby, and even the opportunity for a big storm somewhere.

Also, with a little help from the Atlantic side, we could be looking at a really good pattern shaping up. As is, it's not frigid and blizzardy, but it's a lot better than the crap we're gonna see over the next 10 days. And it's a LOT closer to what we are looking for.
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Interesting run and a break from the previous runs. Much higher heights in southwestern Canada into the pnw and less of an extension from the tpv into the trough. The western ridge was allowed to nose in over top and the SER response was muted until the block near Scandinavia allowed the tpv to sink into the hudson bay region. Like magic you go from a super ugly pattern to more of a gradient pattern where we at least have a chance.

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Rain Cold said:
It's quasi-zonal. But you have a split stream. Cold high pressure sliding by up north and Disturbances in the southern jet to the south. It's honestly not a bad look and not too far away from a really good look. Will it trend well from here or revert back to the ridge of doom look?
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I could see this type of outcome being hidden within the means but since its reasonably close to the general turd pattern it doesn't wash it out. It's nice though to see these occasional blips to know that we aren't that far away from being ok

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SD said:
I could see this type of outcome being hidden within the means but since its reasonably close to the general turd pattern it doesn't wash it out. It's nice though to see these occasional blips to know that we aren't that far away from being ok

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I just said the same thing to my wife, who couldn't care less lol. It's nice to see the model actually show that something can be better pretty quickly. Another matter altogether as to whether or not it actually goes that way. I think it will, though.
 
The short term looks okay but nothing really there to see. You know it’s been bad when a NC ski resort shuts down on January 3rd because of unsafe low snow levels. Bizarre but given all the rain and mild weather..the snow making keeps getting destroyed.
 
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