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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

deltadog03 said:
I agree. I know it’s only 1 run but the euro op really wanted to make this happen. We have all the cold on our side of globe. That’s a good thing to start with.
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Hmmm looks like the Euro ensemble is picking up on this too. A sizable chunk of this Scandinavian high ends up moving over the pole in several days and traps the tropospheric polar vortex over northern Canada & Greenland. Good catch btw

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
With that EPO doing its thing, If we were able to score a -AO would it only help to strengthen the -PNA or would ridging at the pole begin to drive a new pattern?
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The way we're going to get rid of the -PNA is through a major extension of the North Pacific jet, that requires the MJO to move out into the West-Central Pacific. The AO & NAO usually become negative &/or less positive following a West Pac MJO event, so the -AO >>> +PNA relationship occurs more as a result of happenstance rather than the -AO forcing a +PNA. It's really the change in angular momentum imparted by shifting tropical convection that modifies the Pacific jet stream which directly drives changes in the PNA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hmmm looks like the Euro ensemble is picking up on this too. A sizable chunk of this Scandinavian high ends up moving over the pole in several days and traps the tropospheric polar vortex over northern Canada & Greenland. Good catch btw

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Thanks. That in return should force the trod over the Aleutians, sent the ridge poleward to hook up with that ridge moving into Alaska. Then the trof kicks the ridge northwestward to form a -NAO.
 
It seems as if the cold is just waiting for something to kick start it’s way down to where we live... to think we can’t get that kick start through the end of January and into February seems unlikely
 
Nice split on the eps too
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What really sucks is when you look at the pattern evolution over the next 5 days it's raj going as planned ton get a cold January. The okhotsk low forced the Pacific ridge into AK and the cold delivered into the central and eastern us. Problem is tpv lobe rotates around the arctic circle into northern Russia jet accelerates a bit flow in Siberia becomes zonal okhotsk low kicks out Pacific ridge gets cut in half and you end up with an ugly -pna. I say all that to say this, we are likely to repeat a similar process in the d10-20 range. We will probably see some Scandinavian ridging, trough near the urals, Siberian ridge and a low in the okhotsk/aleutians. The question for the Jan 15 onward period are 2 fold: #1 do we actually see some type of -nao/ao construct? #2 do we have enough of a deep okhotsk low that we can force and tilt the Pacific ridge poleward and get a better net result than now? I guess a 3rd question is do we possibly see western us trough actually roll under the Pacific ridge and those anomalies reverse? It's nice to see things looking better in the extended but I have my concerns that we are chasing another transient cold shot.

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The EPS/GEFS project a 2.5/3.0 amp MJO 4/5 late next week. If this one were to peak near 3, would it be a record strong 4/5 for winter? No, because it peaked at 4.1 in Feb of 1985. Also, it peaked at 3.15 in Jan of 1986 and at 3.1 I late Dec of 2018. If it peaks at ~3.0. it would become the 4th strongest on record for winter. THE GEFS does tend to overdo amps although the EPS sometimes is too low. So, I suspect it will peak between them. So, I'm guessing it will peak near 2.75 amplitude in 4/5.

- How many periods on record has there been a ~2.5+ peak of 4/5 in winter? 16
- How many of those 14 had a +NAO? 12 ( 2 were neutral and 2 were -NAO)
- How many of those 14 had a +AO? 8 (5 were neutral and 3 were -AO)
- How many of those 14 had a -PNA? only 4 (3 were neutral and 9 were +PNA)
- How many of those 14 had a +EPO? 10 (2 were neutral and 4 were -EPO)

- How many of these 16 periods were AN at KATL? Only 10 with 5 BN; The 16 periods averaged +2
- Average length of strong 4/5 in winter? 6 days or about how long the upcoming one is projected to be
- The warmest anomalies were these: +12, +10, +9, +9, +8, +7, +7, +4, +3, +3, +1
- The coldest anomalies were these: -10, -8, -5, -5, -4
- The coldest anom of -10 was for 1/20-31/1978, when there was -AO, +PNA, and -EPO to go along with +NAO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 2nd coldest anom of -8 was for 1/6-7/2015, when there was a +PNA/-EPO to go along with +NAO/+AO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 3rd coldest anom of -5 was for 2/12-22/1985, when there was a -AO/+PNA to go along with neutral NAO/+EPO.
- The 4th coldest anom of -5 was for 2/1-8/2004, when there was - -NAO/+PNA to go along with a neural AO/+EPO.

For the upcoming one, the GEFS forecast is for a +NAO/+AO/-PNA and I think a +EPO is being forecasted, also. So, that is like all 7s for warmth on the "indices slot machine.". So, a very warm period close to the warmest of the ones I listed, +7 to +12, wouldn't surprise me.

****EDIT: I just incorporated 2 additional periods (both from Dec of 2018) that I had accidentally left off.
 
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GaWx said:
The GEFS/EPS project a 2.5-3.0 amp MJO 4/5 late next week. If this one were to peak near 3, would it be a record strong 4/5 for winter? No, because it peaked at 4.1 in Feb of 1985. Also, it peaked at 3.15 in Jan of 1986. If it peaks at ~3.0. it would become the 3rd strongest on record for winter. THE GEFS does tend to overdo amps although the EPS sometimes is too low. So, I suspect it will peak between them. So, I'm guessing it will peak near 2.75 amplitude in 4/5.

- How many periods on record has there been a ~2.5+ peak of 4/5 in winter? 14
- How many of those 14 had a +NAO? 12 ( 1 was neutral and 1 was -NAO)
- How many of those 14 had a +AO? 7 (4 were neutral and 3 were -AO)
- How many of those 14 had a -PNA? only 4 (3 were neutral and 7 were +PNA)
- How many of those 14 had a +EPO? 8 (2 were neutral and 4 were -EPO)

- How many of these 14 periods were AN at KATL? only 9 with 5 BN; The 14 periods averaged only +1
- Average length of strong 4/5 in winter? 6 days or about how long the upcoming one is projected to be
- The warmest anomalies were these: +12, +10, +9, +9, +8, +7, +4, +3, +3
- The coldest anomalies were these: -10, -8, -5, -5, -4
- The coldest anom of -10 was for 1/20-31/1978, when there was -AO, +PNA, and -EPO to go along with +NAO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 2nd coldest anom of -8 was for 1/6-7/2015, when there was a +PNA/-EPO to go along with +NAO/+AO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 3rd coldest anom of -5 was for 2/12-22/1985, when there was a -AO/+PNA to go along with neutral NAO/+EPO.
- The 4th coldest anom of -5 was for 2/1-8/2004, when there was - -NAO/+PNA to go along with a neural AO/+EPO.

For the upcoming one, the GEFS forecast is for a +NAO/+AO/-PNA and I think a +EPO is being forecasted, also. So, that is like all 7s for warmth on the "indices slot machine.". So, a very warm period close to the warmest of the ones I listed, +7 to +12, wouldn't surprise me.
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GaWx said:
The EPS/GEFS project a 2.5/3.0 amp MJO 4/5 late next week. If this one were to peak near 3, would it be a record strong 4/5 for winter? No, because it peaked at 4.1 in Feb of 1985. Also, it peaked at 3.15 in Jan of 1986. If it peaks at ~3.0. it would become the 3rd strongest on record for winter. THE GEFS does tend to overdo amps although the EPS sometimes is too low. So, I suspect it will peak between them. So, I'm guessing it will peak near 2.75 amplitude in 4/5.

- How many periods on record has there been a ~2.5+ peak of 4/5 in winter? 14
- How many of those 14 had a +NAO? 12 ( 1 was neutral and 1 was -NAO)
- How many of those 14 had a +AO? 7 (4 were neutral and 3 were -AO)
- How many of those 14 had a -PNA? only 4 (3 were neutral and 7 were +PNA)
- How many of those 14 had a +EPO? 8 (2 were neutral and 4 were -EPO)

- How many of these 14 periods were AN at KATL? only 9 with 5 BN; The 14 periods averaged only +1
- Average length of strong 4/5 in winter? 6 days or about how long the upcoming one is projected to be
- The warmest anomalies were these: +12, +10, +9, +9, +8, +7, +4, +3, +3
- The coldest anomalies were these: -10, -8, -5, -5, -4
- The coldest anom of -10 was for 1/20-31/1978, when there was -AO, +PNA, and -EPO to go along with +NAO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 2nd coldest anom of -8 was for 1/6-7/2015, when there was a +PNA/-EPO to go along with +NAO/+AO. Also, that was a wk Nino.
- The 3rd coldest anom of -5 was for 2/12-22/1985, when there was a -AO/+PNA to go along with neutral NAO/+EPO.
- The 4th coldest anom of -5 was for 2/1-8/2004, when there was - -NAO/+PNA to go along with a neural AO/+EPO.

For the upcoming one, the GEFS forecast is for a +NAO/+AO/-PNA and I think a +EPO is being forecasted, also. So, that is like all 7s for warmth on the "indices slot machine.". So, a very warm period close to the warmest of the ones I listed, +7 to +12, wouldn't surprise me.
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How did the Deceasedlies look?
 
Rain Cold said:
How did the Deceasedlies look?
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LMAO!!! After 3 bleak weeks, actually non-bleak with averages near normal 1/23-2/17. I'd take because getting colder than normal is next to impossible on the Bleakies and getting near normal would be sooo much better than the upcoming crap.

Aside: I left off 2 strong 4-5 MJO periods from Dec of 2018. I'll edit it ASAP! Done!
 
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This could spell an agricultural nightmare as we will be firmly be in growing season by February only for everything to get crushed by a late March deep freeze.


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I would not be surprised to see the NAO go negative and the PNA to go positive in late Feb-April merely based on the law of averages. March and April would then likely end up being the coldest (relative to the averages) of 2020 when all is said and done. Problem with this is most of the area in the SE will still be too warm for accumulating snow except in Tenn and far western NC/southern Virginia.
 
MichaelJ said:
I would not be surprised to see the NAO go negative and the PNA to go positive in late Feb-April merely based on the law of averages. March and April would then likely end up being the coldest (relative to the averages) of 2020 when all is said and done. Problem with this is most of the area in the SE will still be too warm for accumulating snow except in Tenn and far western NC/southern Virginia.
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it seems like that's happened in the last couple years and yeah...
 
MichaelJ said:
I would not be surprised to see the NAO go negative and the PNA to go positive in late Feb-April merely based on the law of averages. March and April would then likely end up being the coldest (relative to the averages) of 2020 when all is said and done. Problem with this is most of the area in the SE will still be too warm for accumulating snow except in Tenn and far western NC/southern Virginia.
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Out of DJFM, March has consistently been our best month relative to normal in terms of both snow & cold in the 2010s and most years have seen at least one minor event during the month, w/ 2018 taking the cake, having 4 separate events following a sudden stratospheric warming event earlier in the winter.
 
MichaelJ said:
I would not be surprised to see the NAO go negative and the PNA to go positive in late Feb-April merely based on the law of averages. March and April would then likely end up being the coldest (relative to the averages) of 2020 when all is said and done. Problem with this is most of the area in the SE will still be too warm for accumulating snow except in Tenn and far western NC/southern Virginia.
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The Upstate of SC can also get accumulating snow in March.
 
tonysc said:
The Upstate of SC can also get accumulating snow in March.
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Yeah I think we’ve all seen too many times of getting accumulating snow in March, especially the first two weeks, to write it off. Heck 3 of the biggest snowfalls I’ve seen in my lifetime occurred after 2/25.
 
Sweet looking same image we've seen for days on end. Hopefully, that SW low eventually pinches off and retrogrades under the Pac block as it joins with the Skandi ridge over the pole and pushes the PV significantly southward into an active STJ, launching winter in the south. That's what I expect to eventually happen. For now, I'm going to spend as much time tracking warmth as possible.

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@300 on the EPS you can see what Webb, Delta and Shane were talking about yesterday.... sure looks like that trough trying to dig east of Japan pushing that ridge up towards Ak and the Scandinavian ridge bulging poleward as well. But after this frame it just never really gets there, hopefully a product of LR smoothing, error, etc and it continues to progress to help dislodge the tPV. Otherwise it's ho hum....

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In the grand scheme of things the cold air is right there, it's just across the border (ignore the heat dome over us lol).... seriously as so many have said, the cold is on our side of the globe, if something would just buckle. I have this gut feeling that it will just sit there and then it will disappear to the other side of the globe before we finally get some blocking

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metwannabe said:
@300 on the EPS you can see what Webb, Delta and Shane were talking about yesterday.... sure looks like that trough trying to dig east of Japan pushing that ridge up towards Ak and the Scandinavian ridge bulging poleward as well. But after this frame it just never really gets there, hopefully a product of LR smoothing, error, etc and it continues to progress to help dislodge the tPV. Otherwise it's ho hum....

View attachment 29555
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6z gfs actually had a pretty interesting sequence of events showing how you can use the current ugly pattern to force a transition to something better. Usually these good/bad somewhat locked patterns have a tendency to self destruct and flip their anomalies in time so we will see. I'd also start watching the Pacific to see if it tries to retrograde the west coast trough under the ridge and the ridge shifts east, no good explanation of why but I feel like that might be the end game there

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SD said:
6z gfs actually had a pretty interesting sequence of events showing how you can use the current ugly pattern to force a transition to something better. Usually these good/bad somewhat locked patterns have a tendency to self destruct and flip their anomalies in time so we will see. I'd also start watching the Pacific to see if it tries to retrograde the west coast trough under the ridge and the ridge shifts east, no good explanation of why but I feel like that might be the end game there

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Other than the atmosphere is fluid and it can't just sit there just like that week after week.... something has to give.
 
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