"the subtropical jet can also flood mid-level moist air which really hurts the EML"
There's a huge distinction between the eddies within the jet and the jet itself, which you were clearly talking about in the previous comment although you've subsequently denied it. EMLs rarely reach the southeastern US because they've usually been mixed out even in the most favorable patterns. You also don't want the mid-levels to be so dry that when parcels ascend, they entrain dry air and the updrafts collapse. Coupled w/ strong shear at this time of the year, the presence or lack of an EML is rarely the limiting factor for severe in January-March. Having an EML or the lack thereof is hardly a back breaker for severe weather in general in the SE US. It's sometimes present in the largest outbreaks but again it's not a necessary prerequisite outside the southern plains for getting an outbreak. In any case, the discussion of severe weather outbreak and whether or not this pattern would support one is superfluous here because there's far more needed than a nice synoptic-planetary scale wave pattern and its over a week away.
However, getting back to
@Myfrotho704_ 's initial statement, the longwave pattern being shown in the longer term is in fact favorable for some severe weather in the SE US even w/ a strong subtropical jet which is deflected northward around said SER and again this STJ is not actually what's advecting mid-level EMLs into the southern plains.
