• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Arcc said:
I was mentioning it in a general sense. Im not gonna write a novel when 99% of the people here could have read and understood what I said. Im not denying anything. If you really want to think Im moving the goal post, go ahead.

Im not exactly sure we are on that much a different page as far as severe weather goes. Sure, this is a pattern for some severe weather, I don't deny that. That said, having posted with Tennessee Storm for years and seeing Myfro's previous posts and being a severe weather junkie myself, seeing messy storm modes hindered by weak lapse rates is not a "severe weather" pattern for us.

Edit: Now that I think about it, I'm not writing a novel in any case.
Click to expand...
I love a good severe weather discussion... interesting thoughts here.
 
Arcc said:
I was mentioning it in a general sense. Im not gonna write a novel when 99% of the people here could have read and understood what I said. Im not denying anything. If you really want to think Im moving the goal post, go ahead.

Im not exactly sure we are on that much a different page as far as severe weather goes. Sure, this is a pattern for some severe weather, I don't deny that. That said, having posted with Tennessee Storm for years and seeing Myfro's previous posts and being a severe weather junkie myself, seeing messy storm modes hindered by weak lapse rates is not a "severe weather" pattern for us.

Edit: Now that I think about it, I'm not writing a novel in any case.
Click to expand...

What you basically said was the subtropical jet stream advects the EML

"the subtropical jet can also flood mid-level moist air which really hurts the EML"

This is obviously not true at all because the subtropical jet is exclusively in the upper troposphere and in geostrophic balance, thus the subtropical jet is not advecting anything. Then you later said you were actually referring to waves in the subtropical jet and not the subtropical jet itself. (facepalm).

It's honestly not my fault that you clearly messed up and get butthurt every time I point out this obviously flaw in your line of rationale instead of admitting you were wrong & moving on.

This last bold statement is key because it gets right to the heart of my previous responses to you, the EML is not a necessary prerequisite for severe weather or even a large outbreak in the SE US, as you were previously hinting at, other limiting factors such as CAPE are more critical at this time of the year.
 
we are all weather enthusiasts... if we wasn't... we wouldn't be on the forum have great discussions which I really enjoy... but this lack of interesting weather is starting to get under our skins.... lol
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's more of "That's enough of this in this thread", but if you want to defend yourself do so in a non-month discussion thread and keep it non-personal. We had enough of that last year.
Click to expand...

I'm not defending myself, but my backside. How dare someone say it is hurt when it actually doesnt, but ok I'll make sure I'll whine about it in the whiney thread next time.
 
Arcc said:
I'm not defending myself, but my backside. How dare someone say it is hurt when it actually doesnt, but ok I'll make sure I'll whine about it in the whiney thread next time.
Click to expand...
There's a reason why I deleted two posts at once. I'm not saying you defending yourself was wrong. The way webber was posting was wrong as well saying you were butthurt. There's a line between civil discussion and name calling that I saw was crossed and both of you crossed it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
There's a reason why I deleted two posts at once. I'm not saying you defending yourself was wrong. The way webber was posting was wrong as well saying you were butthurt. There's a line between civil discussion and name calling that I saw was crossed and both of you crossed it.
Click to expand...

Hey man, it's ok and I understand. The last post to you was in jest. Even the post to Web about me being butthurt and needing therapy was in jest as well. People can believe what they want, but I'm not getting butthurt over anything on the internet anymore, even if Metwannbe changed my avatar to his face.

Ok that may cross the line....
 
EPS is definitely picking up on something ~January 7-10th.

KGSO_2019122900_snow_24h_360.png


Easy to see why there are a decent number of members showing a storm when you have a pattern like this being modeled at day 9 coupled w/ an active subtropical jet. Remains to be seen how large of a window we're gonna have to work w/ here, and it's possible we may quickly devolve into a -PNA by Jan 10th if our ACWB in the NE Pacific is suppressed &/or weaker.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png


Fwiw, also worth mentioning the GFS is also hinting at a storm in roughly the same timeframe.

Point is, the pattern appears to be significantly more favorable than normal around January 6-10th ish for wintry weather in the SE US & climatologically speaking, this is also the coldest part of the winter for most on the board. We just need to trend in the right direction w/ individual waves over the coming week to allow for an actual threat to materialize.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS is definitely picking up on something ~January 7-10th.

View attachment 29196


Easy to see why there are a decent number of members showing a storm when you have a pattern like this being modeled at day 9 coupled w/ an active subtropical jet. Remains to be seen how large of a window we're gonna have to work w/ here, and it's possible we may quickly devolve into a -PNA by Jan 10th if our ACWB in the NE Pacific is suppressed &/or weaker.

View attachment 29197


Fwiw, also worth mentioning the GFS is also hinting at a storm in roughly the same timeframe.

Point is, the pattern appears to be significantly more favorable than normal around January 6-10th ish for wintry weather in the SE US & climatologically speaking, this is also the coldest part of the winter for most on the board. We just need to trend in the right direction w/ individual waves over the coming week to allow for an actual threat to materialize.

View attachment 29198
Click to expand...

Hey Webb, do you think this is the only threat for January since the MJO is looking to head towards 4,5,6? This looks like a small window before we go unfavorably for a few weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Arcc said:
Hey man, it's ok and I understand. The last post to you was in jest. Even the post to Web about me being butthurt and needing therapy was in jest as well. People can believe what they want, but I'm not getting butthurt over anything on the internet anymore, even if Metwannbe changed my avatar to his face.

Ok that may cross the line....
Click to expand...
?
ebdb1a13ebdab9953640b680d485a5d5.gif


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
I actually like the look of the D7+ right now (ie last day or 2 of model runs). I think that could leave us potentially cold enough, but also have energy drop down the Rockies and scoot SE to allow something to happen. Looks like there could be that fine line with the STJ and the SER where we could have a parade of storms potentially.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Hey Webb, do you think this is the only threat for January since the MJO is looking to head towards 4,5,6? This looks like a small window before we go unfavorably for a few weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Subseasonal tropical forcing is being predominated by faster moving Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, persistence of a particular forcing regime will be limited going forward which also means we're going to get a ton of different looks in the coming weeks and probably will be less likely to contend w/ more classical, slower moving MJO. Even if one were to materialize, the +ENSO lean globally favors faster MJO propagation due to stronger advection by the background flow.

Another CCKW is forecast to reach the West-central Pacific roughly in/around late January.

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png
 
Arcc said:
I thought I could bare it, but in the end that may set me over the edge.

Sorry just being honest.
Click to expand...
I was just confused how I got drug into this with the changing of an avatar to my face, that's what I was wondering??

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I was just confused how I got drug into this with the changing of an avatar to my face, that's what I was wondering??

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Well it's a long warped story that included posting while trying not to burn the eggs. Not a recipe of good posting and I promise I'll do better.
 
Webberweather53 said:
All -EPOs aren't created equal, you get a west coast trough/-PNA when the -EPO is suppressed equatorward & displaced westward. Need the ridge to be centered closer to the Yukon Territories and literally over Alaska to benefit from it.
Click to expand...

Yep.

This is also true for most teleconnections.

Looking at a EPO or NAO graph can only tell you so much, even if it says it’s going negative. You have to look at the 500mb look and see the location of the ++anomalies and find out why the model is classifying it as a -NAO or -EPO. Sometimes it can be classified as a -NAO and not matter for our weather. Same for -AO, not all are created equal. Hell even +PNA, we can get a super strong ++PNA but if it’s not technically in the right place we don’t benefit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top