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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
It's quasi-zonal. But you have a split stream. Cold high pressure sliding by up north and Disturbances in the southern jet to the south. It's honestly not a bad look and not too far away from a really good look. Will it trend well from here or revert back to the ridge of doom look?
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I’ve honestly only been looking at MSLP the last 10-12 days and it has been low pressure dominated which gives me pause. I’d love to see a 1040 drop down with a low pressure lull before I get too hopeful
 
Pattern will make an attempt to turn around ~Jan 25-30 or about the last week of January and this time potentially linger into February. This experimental MJO and extratropical forecast product from Dr Roundy at SUNY-Albany generally shows this. Notice it even picks up on the attenuation of the MJO once it exits the Maritime Continent

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
 
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NoSnowATL said:
I don’t like it but I do like that it’s going as planned. At this rate we could be in 7/8 per Euro by end of the month or early Feb. bottom line if this happens we should have a 2 week window in February.


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GEFS really pushes it through 4/5 into 6.

We still have a consolidated trop/strat PV to deal with.


0B1B01D7-DBAA-4AEB-99C3-E77D980A62A5.gif
 
KyloG said:
GEFS really pushes it through 4/5 into 6.

We still have a consolidated trop/strat PV to deal with.


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Yea I hope it looks more like this. I don’t like that loop look.


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NoSnowATL said:
What’s your gut feeling going into February?


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Personally I think we see a sustained period of BN temps in the east/SE as we end Jan into Feb. I think we have a chance the last 5 weeks of met winter could be BN. Probably more hope than anything but that's how I feel. The consolidated trop PV does concern me though.
 
NoSnowATL said:
What’s your gut feeling going into February?


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I signed up here last Feb. So since then there has been 0 reasons to be optimistic. So I've earned myself a reputation for being negative. Which I have been most of the last decade with winter here. But if we ever get a decent pattern I can and will be optimistic.

But my gut feeling is we don't see that in Feb this year either. Many years in this hobby has taught me a hostile Pac doesnt give up much, and Atlantic help is not likely based on recent years. This pattern is as bad as it gets. I don't know if it'll snow or not. We may can time a trough swinging through. But I seriously doubt a large northern hemisphere pattern change is likely until March when it's too late.
 
If the long range Euro is anything to go by we may not have winter weather to talk about around here, but severe weather could make a roaring appearance by next weekend and early the following week. 12z Euro has what looks to be back to back severe weather events with one on the 11th-12th and another on the 13th-14th. Could be something to watch but way to far out there still.
 
BufordWX said:
If the long range Euro is anything to go by we may not have winter weather to talk about around here, but severe weather could make a roaring appearance by next weekend and early the following week. 12z Euro has what looks to be back to back severe weather events with one on the 11th-12th and another on the 13th-14th. Could be something to watch but way to far out there still.
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Yea that time period looks interesting. Someone in the SE might see a small outbreak or bigger.


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MichaelJ said:
Until we can get the MJO to get into phases 1,2 and 8, it will be tough for the SE to get winter weather. There are some signs it will get into at least 6 before collapsing and whether it can sneak into these phases is questionable at this time
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Don't forget about phase 7. Great phase for snow this time of year.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea that time period looks interesting. Someone in the SE might see a small outbreak or bigger.


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Gfs also is in agreement .. I have a feeling a very big system is on the horizon.. when u have that much of a clash between temperatures you get massive fronts and big low pressures in general terms ... the fact that we have such a clash this far into winter means an extreme temperature gradient from 70s (southeast) to temperatures way below freezing in the Midwest ... temperature gradients in the winter usually are not this great because usually the norther branch is very dominant so temperature gradients are usually not this extensive .. will be interesting to see how models continue to see this pattern out
 
Also the end of the euro although still bad .. it is better looking than the Gfs I would say at the same time frame .. euro wants to continue to build some ridging poleward and even looks to want to bring a Greenland block into play possibly if the model could run further out ... we may have to wait a while but I do believe the pattern will cave to a more favorable one for cold and stormy for the south east .. patience is going to be the key here .. in the mean time we have a lot to track with severe weather the next couple weeks
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
Maybe my calendar is wrong but it says winter ends on March 19th........ why are we saying it’s over on January 4th? Again maybe my calendar is wrong
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No ... your calendar is correct ... but I'll be the 1st to admit, I was wrong ... maybe ... with the caveat there's 27 more days to go ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
No ... your calendar is correct ... but I'll be the 1st to admit, I was wrong ... maybe ... with the caveat there's 27 more days to go ... o_O
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Yep. 27 days to go in January. 75 days till winter is officially over. I wish people just take a deep breath and know there’s more to this life than whether or not it gets cold and snows
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
Yep. 27 days to go in January. 75 days till winter is officially over. I wish people just take a deep breath and know there’s more to this life than whether or not it gets cold and snows
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Yes ... and I was the one back in October touting a warm December and a cold January ... but the deep breath and more than weather are sage ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Yes ... and I was the one back in October touting a warm December and a cold January ... but the deep breath and more than weather are sage ... ;)
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Understood but I’ve been lurking and it seems to me that people here are acting like the world will end if it doesn’t get cold or snow.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
Maybe my calendar is wrong but it says winter ends on March 19th........ why are we saying it’s over on January 4th? Again maybe my calendar is wrong
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Unless you live in the upper south you’re winter is basically over after February. Meteorological winter, meaning the cold weather season is December through February. The only thing significant about March 19th-20th is the man made definition of the Spring equinox.
 
J.C. said:
Unless you live in the upper south you’re winter is basically over after February. Meteorological winter, meaning the cold weather season is December through February. The only thing significant about March 19th-20th is the man made definition of the Spring equinox.
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Lol. Okay
 
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