Nice shift on the AK ridge, continues to the 1050mb high.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
That 1052 high in the northern plains is exactly what we need to get a good winter storm around here. That’s a beautiful look...
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Man can we get that look to stay for the next several runs?
Yea it actually nice not to see the good ole southeast ridge on a model run.
Nice 50/50 low
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
50 more runs to go. Easy peasy.
Jon
Member
These are highs
The cool thing about 500mb anomalies is sometimes they don’t matter at the surface. -30s in Minnesota. A little cold...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Look at all that cold air just to the north. That’s amazing. I can’t remember seeing that much cold air covering almost all of Canada ?? ...These are highs
The cool thing about 500mb anomalies is sometimes they don’t matter at the surface. -30s in Minnesota. A little cold...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Totals: Will post this run in the Fantasy Archive
Maybe this will be a start of the new trend. Will be interesting on if the GEFS has a few big boy storms in there..
I feel like a kid during Christmas morning after seeing those unexpected maps. I was half asleep, now wide awake.
I hate to be “That guy” but not a single GEFS member had anything close to the FV3.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If we can keep supplying hard liquor for the GFS, perhaps!
When something like that appears out of nowhere past day 10 with no previous run having anything like it and with no ensemble or indices support, you might as well assume the model is drunk or else you’ll set yourself up for a disappointment.
We hear about the drunk Doc all the time. But the GFS has its share of alcohol, too.
Last edited:
The GEFS looks much better for the system Wednesday in GSO FWIW
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
It will change
This low key has to be watched for some upper south residence .. been watching it for a while... it’s now slowly trying to come into the picture .. we will see
Most has slept on it but the 00z Nam supported snow spilling into the foothills with our next weak wave on Tuesday, soundings supportive of wet snow altho DGZs are a bit dry initially 
Shaggy
Member
Probably only interesting to us coastal plains guys but a big wind tide is starting to get going on the pamlico river NC. Water levels have plummeted as the west winds blow the water out of river over to the sound side of the OBX.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So much for those end of the month CFS runs that didn't show a blowtorch in the SE US.
There's pretty much no way we're climbing out of this hole this month.
There's pretty much no way we're climbing out of this hole this month.
Flooding gonna be a big problem for areas around AR, MO, west TN according the the Euro. Euro showing 8-10” of rain over the next ten days and that is likely under modeled.
Shaggy
Member
Storm5
Member
Yeah the CFS thumpers are in hiding
Not me , I’ll be in shorts later this week when it’s in the 70s
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
tennessee storm
Member
Ground zero on flooding appears be se Missouri and western Kentucky area could be bad
It sucks how close the Tuesday system is around here but especially toward the va border. In a good year we probably reel that one in
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
Man, we're gonna have 3 or 4 weeks left to try to salvage what's left of winter.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Six Mile Wx
Member
Probably mostly noise, but a decent number of Euro ensemble members definitely hinting at a change in pattern around the 18th. Looks still mostly transient, but it's not torch city.
A lot of times that's how we get out of a locked pattern; one transient step at a time. The 18th would be great if that's the first step in the right direction...
cd2play
Member
Areas that end up in the axis of heaviest rain can probably expect to be dealing with significant water damage to homes.
MichaelJ
Member
Looking at the MJO forecasts as well as the major indices, I think we can put a fork in January until at least the 20th. The one bright spot for part (a small part) of our area is that the EURO and CFSV2 show February being below normal. I can see where the northern parts of the SE can score between the 5th-25th of February if we can get the timing just right. However for the majority of our posters, Ga, Ala, and even SC look kind of bleak. With the skill level being as low as they have been on the models though, it could flip around but personally I am no longer optimistic it will for the bulk of the SE
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS verbatim looks like a brief rain/snow mix in the Triad Tue morning before flipping to cold rain.
The 12z 3km NAM obviously looks way nicer.
The 12z 3km NAM obviously looks way nicer.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Jon
Member
???? It’s not like it predicted cold, it predicted normal to +0.5 temps for the SE for Jan
I’m a CFS thumper. It’s generally a good model during winter and I’ll continue to stand by that. This month will obviously bust. Anyone who follows the CFS knows it’s not a good model overall and has a ton of issues, but their 3-to-1 day lead monthly forecasts work out more than they don’t during the winter months.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Talk about a south trend. The poor mid Atlantic crew must be ticked.