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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
00z GEFS Showing support for the small event for the January 4th-5th time period 
And a few have a event for the January 6th-8th time period. Less support then the 18z run though.
And a few have a event for the January 6th-8th time period. Less support then the 18z run though.Ladies and germs, it looks like the 0Z Euro will be coming in colder early in the 6-10. Let's see.
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@deltadog03 and others, it did and now the 2nd airmass looks to also come in colder than the 12Z Euro.
edit:
@deltadog03 and others, it did and now the 2nd airmass looks to also come in colder than the 12Z Euro.
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The Euro through the end of its run
John1122
Member
Euro pops a +PNA and fires some deep cold our way.
Wasn’t the first half of January suppose to be a torch ??? ? okay I’m sorry I had to say it
Be careful what you say as you may curse it and cause the wx gods to give us a torch as punishment.
All the negative talking the past end of year has cursed us into being in this mess in the first place let’s hope we’re just correcting now ??
Can we get a report on the eps it looks good on paper with regards to the tropical tidbits maps I’m seeing
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've been progressively losing the -PNA that was initially forecast this week on the EPS, however the -PNA during Jan 10-15 is stronger the last few cycles and the ridge placement in the NP is very reminiscent of Feb 2019.
In the meantime, we'll have a window of opportunity to score late in the first week of January & in the early part of the 2nd week.
In the meantime, we'll have a window of opportunity to score late in the first week of January & in the early part of the 2nd week.
Before you see the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to actually be in the tunnel. The tunnel isn't even on the radar yet, according to the maps below. Going to be game over for most of January, if this comes to pass.
And it only gets worse from here.
Welcome back to our typical winter pattern. Maybe somebody can pick me up, but I'm not seeing much of a reason to expect much for most of the month now. Originally, I thought we'd start to shift better after week 2, but it looks like that estimate may be way too soon.
And it only gets worse from here.
Welcome back to our typical winter pattern. Maybe somebody can pick me up, but I'm not seeing much of a reason to expect much for most of the month now. Originally, I thought we'd start to shift better after week 2, but it looks like that estimate may be way too soon.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
It always consoles me to see that it is 10-15 day outlook on GFS? Considering the lack of consistency on it and all the models post 7 days, I think I would wait a few days to get too upset.
NoSnowATL
Member
Checked the MJO and looks to still be in 5 by mid month. Some have it going in the circle and others have in low amp into 6. We might have a cold snap but that will bring temps back to normal just for a few days. I don’t see anything for January. If the MJO can keep progressing towards 7,8 then February has a chance. I just hope it does just keep looping in 4,5 and 6.
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It's the GEFS so maybe it's wrong? But while the eps is slightly better @240, after that it goes in the tank through the end of the run, warning it's not pretty
NoSnowATL
Member
There's a storm signal on the eps around D10 before things go off the cliff the rest of the month...
Storm5
Member
Agreed. Transient cold shots sure , a winter pattern we are looking for ? No. However , that does not mean we can’t luck up and score . I thought we would be rolling into a better pattern by mid month . Not looking too good at the moment
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Unless I'm missing it I don't see individual eps panels on weathermodels sit... @KyloG @Ollie Williams anyone have individual panels? Thanks