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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Polar Vortex headed for the Great Lakes?

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SETNwx said:
Winter Uncancel, number 2 or 3....
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You mean 9 or 10.

Just before everyone jumps on the cold train remember at this point it is still a likely progressive pattern until we actually see some sort of powerful -EPO set up. Just remember this if the models ensemble mean start showing ten days of cold which gets whittled down followed by ten days of torch.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Look at that ridge building closer to being over Alaska you have to love the trends tonight
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Not quite yet..still looks ugly to me but general consensus is a brief shot of transient cold air towards the end of the first week in January..EURO with a storm signal tonight towards the end of the run60CB1506-71AE-4A88-BDA3-2BA80FA11CA3.jpeg
 
This certainly doesn’t scream ugly to me ... look at that beastly anomalous ridge digging through Alaska ...
 

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Euro and Canadian had the same storm tonight. Similar track but the Euro is a little further south. Massive winter storm for N Arkansas, N West and N Central Tn to Kentucky that run. Almost a banana hp look but the western center is north and the eastern center is weak so it cuts the Apps. Could end up being a significant storm threat or could be another cutter. Hope it turns into something worth tracking.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This certainly doesn’t scream ugly to me ... look at that beastly anomalous ridge digging through Alaska ...
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I’m just not sure the obsession with the -EPO. Not directed at you, Nick. I mean maybe when it’s coupled with a +PNA or a -AO? I just don’t see how it’s that beneficial of a teleconnection by itself. Seems like a recipe for a troughy west coast. Maybe someone can elaborate on this in the morning. I genuinely want to know. The GEFS has a similar look near AK towards the end of the run and you see how much it benefits us..8664E488-966C-4B41-A638-BFC9BFFA17B5.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m just not sure the obsession with the -EPO. Not directed at you, Nick. I mean maybe when it’s coupled with a +PNA or a -AO? I just don’t see how it’s that beneficial of a teleconnection by itself. Seems like a recipe for a troughy west coast. Maybe someone can elaborate on this in the morning. I genuinely want to know. The GEFS has a similar look near AK towards the end of the run and you see how much it benefits us..View attachment 29188
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-EPO can give us some of our coldest weather, with literal cross polar flow, only issue is that at time it can hurt a pattern and even encourage a SE ridge
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m just not sure the obsession with the -EPO. Not directed at you, Nick. I mean maybe when it’s coupled with a +PNA or a -AO? I just don’t see how it’s that beneficial of a teleconnection by itself. Seems like a recipe for a troughy west coast. Maybe someone can elaborate on this in the morning. I genuinely want to know. The GEFS has a similar look near AK towards the end of the run and you see how much it benefits us..View attachment 29188
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That's not quite a beneficial -EPO. Move the center of those heights about 750 miles east into the Gulf of Alaska. It bulges north across Alaska at times and turns the flow across the pole and brings Siberian air straight into Eastern North America.

When the EPO does that it can overwhelm the Atlantic. Winter 2014-15 saw the -EPO put the Eastern U.S in the ice box even with a +AO/+NAO.

When its positive a LP spins in the gulf of Alaska and sends Pacific air screaming across the country and we're all warm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m just not sure the obsession with the -EPO. Not directed at you, Nick. I mean maybe when it’s coupled with a +PNA or a -AO? I just don’t see how it’s that beneficial of a teleconnection by itself. Seems like a recipe for a troughy west coast. Maybe someone can elaborate on this in the morning. I genuinely want to know. The GEFS has a similar look near AK towards the end of the run and you see how much it benefits us..View attachment 29188
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Yeah the euro and it’s ensembles are showing the ridge much further east which would have drastic impacts to what the US looks like
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m just not sure the obsession with the -EPO. Not directed at you, Nick. I mean maybe when it’s coupled with a +PNA or a -AO? I just don’t see how it’s that beneficial of a teleconnection by itself. Seems like a recipe for a troughy west coast. Maybe someone can elaborate on this in the morning. I genuinely want to know. The GEFS has a similar look near AK towards the end of the run and you see how much it benefits us..View attachment 29188
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All -EPOs aren't created equal, you get a west coast trough/-PNA when the -EPO is suppressed equatorward & displaced westward. Need the ridge to be centered closer to the Yukon Territories and literally over Alaska to benefit from it.
 
Good EPO, ridging into AK with a positive PNA 7A9E2EBC-1C18-4779-B8BA-7599EA70A7BA.jpeg
Bad EPO, ridge displaced to the west, so colder air is dumped into the western US/Midwest 61F05ACE-18AC-4606-B7A6-D3B3E6C9FE51.jpegtime to cancel winter EPO, hard pattern to break, ugly GOA ridge, last February in a nutshell, deeply negative PNA, Seattle gets everything while we torch 8A74560B-569E-4712-8038-B4587B589F38.jpeg
 
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