Clem282340
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
18z run
00z
Here they are not more members but what members there are, are looking better.
Incoming 
Incoming low cloud bases and wedges
EPS looks much more active especially for the 7-8 storm vs previous run
12z
00z
12z
00z
LR disaster continues. Still no light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm not sure we're actually even anywhere close to the tunnel. Looks pretty mild with occasional cool shots as systems move by.
One positive is it looks wet. Another positive is we get 31 days this month to say ‘Feb is usually our best month for snow’. It’s something at least.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I just read Isotherm’s (from the other board) winter outlook again for a refresher and it has been more or less spot on so far, especially for our region. Per the original outlook, February offers the best potential for cold/snow in the east—BUT the SER is expected to continue to flex its muscles, limiting the cold/snow potential south of DC(again, per the original forecast.)
At this point I’m beginning to wonder if we will even be able to squeak out a favorable 7-10 day window in the SE. Things are not going our way, that is for sure.
Note: If you want to read Iso’s outlook, be sure to bring your dictionary!
Yes the long range pattern is remarkable in its non wintry consistency. Our one window for snow is also closing fast, looking at last nights Euro. The trough just get less impressive every run.
Yeah, he's done well. I will confess that I only ready crappy warm forecasts once. I give him credit, but I don't want to read it again. I would rather just watch it unfold in real time.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is about as ugly of a pattern as you'll ever see around here in the 11-15. At least we know it can't get much worse than this, or so I hope.
0z eps, this image @216 and it literally doesn't budge through the end of the 360 hr run
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Has anyone ever seen ensembles with this much agreement this far out? Honestly, it seems unnatural. Of course, it probably only happens in warm patterns
NoSnowATL
Member
Considering the consistently forecasted (for a good number of days) pretty long duration of high amp warm MJO phases combined with strongly +AO and +NAO as well as the expected return of -AAM after the last few days of +AAM, the very warm midmonth is not all a surprise, especially when considering cold model bias. I mean this combo of factors is like a slot machine hitting all 7s for warmth.
Euro has the MJO spiking well into phase 5. Now, it tried to do that with phase 6 earlier, and it didn't end up quite so bad. I guess the good news is, it isn't spiking into phase 3 and taking the long way around the horn. Maybe it will get into phase 7 before too, too long. Who knows.
Edit: Spikes into phase 4 then 5. Wow. Just horrific.
whatalife
Moderator
This is just ugly! The GEPS, GEFS, and EPS all agree to some extent on days 10-14. They offer very little hope of things turning around anytime soon.
However...The EPS MJO at the end does appear to be trying to go back into COD. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
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However...The EPS MJO at the end does appear to be trying to go back into COD. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
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The weather slots seem to come up all 7s with increasing frequency nowadays. There is definitely some rigging going on.
Oh that’s right. I guess we just suck at law of averages ?
I’d say GW has to be considered as the main rigging factor. And as Webb said, talking about GW in the monthly threads is appropriate in this way.
NoSnowATL
Member
I would like to read more about North Pole moving towards Russia. I think this movement away from USA is playing a role. I think it’s playing more of a role them GW.
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GW is the easy low-hanging fruit to pick here. While I expect it has some role to play, it is hard to believe it is the be all end all. Not saying you are saying that. Just commenting, more or less.
It’s all subjective. Look at the west coast..dream pattern setting up. It has undoubtedly been a bad several years for the east coast. I can almost guarantee that will turn around at some point in the next decade..I think
NoSnowATL
Member
Law of averages . Mother Nature evens out over time. I remember when the west coast was warm and dry every winter.
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Based on the link to that paper that @BHS1975 first showed in the GW thread, GW is quite possibly having a doubly warm effect on much of the E US thanks to the waters centered around the Maritime Continent warming more than other waters. The extra warming centered on the Maritime Continent is hypothesized by that paper to be increasing the number of days spent in MJO warm phases 4 and 5. My own counting of the % of days in 4/5 the last 10 winters confirmed this increase.
Based on this, the key for the future may be to see if/when those waters will not be as warm vs other waters. Maybe then the SER ridge would not be as strong in the means.
This is just ugly! The GEPS, GEFS, and EPS all agree to some extent on days 10-14. They offer very little hope of things turning around anytime soon.
However...The EPS MJO at the end does appear to be trying to go back into COD. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
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That MJO run of the EPS says to me it may stall/loop in 5. If that happens come mid January I will be ready to throw in the towel and occupy my time with something else.
This goes back to my post yesterday about the MJO 4/5 analogs...the ones that turned colder in Feb had a much weaker January pac ridge than the ones that stayed warm. That really isn’t surprising as we need that pac ridge to weaken 2nd half of Jan. But, if MJO stalls/loops in 5 than that would follow the warm Feb analogs which is top pic below.
Safe to say you won’t hear any GW complaints from the desert Southwest or the Ski resorts embedded in the Sierra Nevada’s this winter 
The more time spent in warm E US favoring MJO 4 and 5, which has been hypothesized to be due to more warming of waters in and near Indonesia, means better chance of cold W US. It all kind of goes together. What favors more SER also favors more troughing to the west.
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah. I would agree with this possibility. I really don’t see it turning around this winter but it is only January 1st and the models don’t show us what will happen beyond the middle of January. The towel is in my hand as well.
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Agreed...by the last 7-10 days of January, we are going to have an idea of how Feb is going to look...IMO.
I should note that I do think we see a window in Feb. I do think this does turn around some.
whatalife
Moderator
Jon
Member
Yep. Two tropical systems forming north of Australia this week
There’s no way the MJO is being predicted wrong because of this. That would put us in 5 for Week 2 soley based off precip composites. I would be surprised to see further spiking.
Thankfully the MJO moves fairly quickly when at high amplitude. Hopefully we will be in Phase 7 to start Feb
Composite
CFS Forecast
Phase 7 January 30
Phase 8 Feb 04
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We should probably get back on topic and help track this mini anafrontal flizzard so the snow weenies don’t start to panic. 06z GFS..better get the brine ready 
Yep. Two tropical systems forming north of Australia this week
There’s no way the MJO is being predicted wrong because of this. That would put us in 5 for Week 2 soley based off precip composites. I would be surprised to see further spiking.
Thankfully the MJO moves fairly quickly when at high amplitude. Hopefully we will be in Phase 7 to start Feb
Composite
CFS Forecast
Phase 7 January 30
Phase 8 Feb 04
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Makes you wonder would it even matter at that point. It made no difference last Feb...we spent all of Feb ph 7-1 and this was the pattern. And last year we didn't have this epic strong strat PV.
Looks good for the few dozen skiing at Snowshoe on Monday.
Jon
Member
Yeah, last year was ideal conditions and it still failed. There’s always other drivers that overwhelm the other. Maybe we’ll experience a warming event but time is clearly running out. I’m one for just trying to get out of anything negative holding us back, it’s like the snowball method for weather...get rid of the MJO holding us back so we can figure out the PV. Until we get into phase 8-1-2 it doesn’t matter what the PV does. But at least Australia gets some rain.
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The warming around the maritime is maddening. What about the jacked up Pac ridge which will always lead to a trof in the west. Is it SST related? Or is the SST a reflection of it? If it's warm SST'S due to GW and it cause ridges, that's the largest body of water on the planet and we're unfortunate enough to be downstream of it. May be a long road ahead.
I agree the east is bearing the brunt of GW. The world is only what +1°C? That's like 2°F, yet we're constantly +3-5°F every month every single year!
I agree the east is bearing the brunt of GW. The world is only what +1°C? That's like 2°F, yet we're constantly +3-5°F every month every single year!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The RMM MJO index is basically blending 2 Kelvin Waves in the eastern hemisphere, this is definitely not a classic MJO event or RMM phase 4-5 projection because we don't have a single, coherent MJO wave, but the end result will be the same at least in the next 1.5-2 weeks. The long-term implications of not having a classic MJO pulse means that this tropical forcing signal will propagate more quickly thru the Maritime Continent and into the Western Pacific. I still like the idea of this pattern potentially turning around during the last week of January (Jan 25-30).
Jon
Member
HM with some not so great thoughts this morning on why we’ve been stuck in these warm winters...
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