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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

WEATHERBOYROY said:
Web, I know you are a very intelligent fellow. I really enjoy your excellent analysis of all the models. However, as good as you are, and as good as the models are, neither of you can give a consistently accurate forecast for the next 10 days. Why should we buy into what's gonna happen 50 to 75 years down the road.AND What do these unsubstantiated global warming theories have to do with Jan 2020? You guys have a global warming thread!
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Uhh no, I've been very adamant on how the pattern was going to evolve going forward and the threat window for wintry weather ~ Jan 5-10, specify exactly where I've been inconsistent because as far as I can tell, I haven't been.

There's a massive difference of scale when dealing with day-to-day, years, and multidecadal forecasts, the same level of detail can not be expected at both scales. This is an often overused argument, because we can't predict the location of some random thunderstorm in my backyard at "x" day does not mean we also can't predict the long-term slowly evolving temperature trend over a period of several decades. The processes acting at these scales are highly disparate from one another and the evolution of some thunderstorm over a short period of time "t" will have virtually no impact on the large-scale temperature over a period of several decades when thousands of said storms are observed, i.e. it's "noise". As for global warming, it's a symptom of climate change, it simply can't be ignored when assessing long-term underlying tendencies in snowfall in the southeastern US and comparing modern winters & storms of today to those in the early 20th & late 19th century. Here our limiting factor for snow almost always is a lack of cold air, both theory and historical observations at reliable observing sites like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, SC, Wilmington, NC, (just to name a few) are exhibiting significant-very significant long-term downward trends in seasonal snowfall which is almost certainly due to a warming climate alone. In areas of the US where the basic state climate is cold enough to support snow even in warm winters, it really doesn't matter (yet) and snowfall increases if anything during the heart of winter, because there's more moisture being fluxed around the globe & moist static energy increases as a function of temperature. It's complicated yes, it's not unsubstantiated, and this sort of discussion is entirely on topic.
 
Somosdel said:
Please stick to January weather. Can we please move global warming convos to banter? No need for clogging this thread with this.... thanks mods
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Discussion of the winter of 1941-42 came up in the context of this January, I provided maps from my site, and a question then arose on whether to use mean or median for snowfall averages at CAE because they seemed to be getting left out (again) in the upcoming pattern which is of course in January. I answered said question accordingly with my analyses of their historical snowfall and provided valuable input on how their snowfall has changed over the years, what the linear regression looks like and how the mean & median compare.

A few bloggers (including yourself) are getting upset over my stringent analyses of Columbia & Charlotte's historical snowfall which are entirely accurate and are crying foul and clogging this particular thread with posts complaining about this being about global warming.

Remind me again who's off topic here?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Discussion of the winter of 1941-42 came up in the context of this January, I provided maps from my site, and a question then arose on whether to use mean or median for snowfall averages at CAE because they seemed to be getting left out (again) in the upcoming pattern which is of course in January. A few bloggers (including yourself) are getting upset over my stringent analyses of Columbia & Charlotte's historical snowfall which are entirely accurate and are crying foul and clogging this particular thread with posts complaining about this being about global warming.

Remind me again who's off topic here?
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While it may be well substantiated by science it doesn’t fit within our discussion of Jan 2020 weather on the synoptic level. Let’s Continue model discussion and the next month. That’s all. Cheers
 
Somosdel said:
While it may be well substantiated by science it doesn’t fit within our discussion of Jan 2020 weather on the synoptic level. Let’s Continue model discussion and the next month. That’s all. Cheers
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Our sensible weather in January 2020 isn't going to be exclusively influenced by synoptic-scale variability. Micro, mesoscale, synoptic, planetary scale, climate variability, and even climate change all have their respective roles to play at various points in/around this month. Having tunnel vision s.t. to ignore anything outside the synoptic-scale won't get you very far.
 
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Congrats man, you totally lost me, LOL!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Ugghh...what the frack

I guess the bigger they are the harder the fall analogy might come to fruition.
 
KyloG said:
Ugghh...what the frack

I guess the bigger they are the harder the fall analogy might come to fruition.
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what I was wondering, so if it’s really strong, when it does weaken will it be that much colder air? Or does that have noting to do with it?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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I have no idea what you just said, but it sounds incredible.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere.
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Interesting.

Also not good on the last part of the post. I hope there's something that can trigger a change, because it does sound like if you can get a flip the eastern US would have really cold air heading at them.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be record strong not only for this time of the year, but for the entirety of the satellite record in this coming week. For the first time in the satellite era, it's going to be cold enough to form both type I & II polar stratospheric clouds in the northern hemisphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (formally known as PSCs) contain nitric acid trihydrate (nitric acid (HNO3), which is a very strong acid attached to 3 molecules of water) that go onto active chlorine radicals that destroy more stratospheric ozone, creating a positive feedback loop that further cools the stratosphere and reinforces the pre-existing temperature anomaly. Large solar flares & associated solar proton events & energetic particle precipitation can also initiate massive dropouts in stratospheric ozone via enhancement of NOx (nitrous oxides) that also may dramatically intensify the polar vortex and ultimately favor strong episodes of +AO/NAO.


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Overwhelmed
 
I don’t post here much but more of a lurker who reads and learns from what others say. I am not pointing at anyone but what happened to the day where if you don’t want to read a post don’t. I think what Webber said is ok to be in the January thread. I pick through the texts I want to read and learn. Yes there is a climate change thread but why get so bent outta shape over what he said. No biggie just skim over it. One quick note. I was once a doubter of climate change. I will say the climate is changing and everyone should wake up. Climate and wx affect us all. From daily living to our attitudes to the way we act. People are changing like the climate. Sickness and diseases will increase. Food sources will decrease. So I think it is important to start paying attention. Let’s try to all get along and quit nitpicking. Just like a magazine. You read the articles you want to. Think of this forum like a magazine! Carry on!
 
Matthew70 said:
I don’t post here much but more of a lurker who reads and learns from what others say. I am not pointing at anyone but what happened to the day where if you don’t want to read a post don’t. I think what Webber said is ok to be in the January thread. I pick through the texts I want to read and learn. Yes there is a climate change thread but why get so bent outta shape over what he said. No biggie just skim over it. One quick note. I was once a doubter of climate change. I will say the climate is changing and everyone should wake up. Climate and wx affect us all. From daily living to our attitudes to the way we act. People are changing like the climate. Sickness and diseases will increase. Food sources will decrease. So I think it is important to start paying attention. Let’s try to all get along and quit nitpicking. Just like a magazine. You read the articles you want to. Think of this forum like a magazine! Carry on!
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Plus, Webber is like 20x smarter than the next best poster in here. We're actually blessed to have his thoughts here.
 
This is what that pattern characterized by that shallow GOA ridge/-PNA can do, gfs showed a severe weather setup to go along with it, typical when you have a flexing SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW, If we get a pattern like this to verify severe weather is definitely on the table (similar pattern to what we saw the end of feb/early March last year which gave that outbreak in the SE) 600AC3BF-3B9B-4E22-B61A-540346A4CE8E.pngD7BFFF94-4296-4930-808E-2E4CEDDBE254.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is what that pattern characterized by that shallow GOA ridge/-PNA can do, gfs showed a severe weather setup to go along with it, typical when you have a flexing SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW, If we get a pattern like this to verify severe weather is definitely on the table (similar pattern to what we saw the end of feb/early March last year which gave that outbreak in the SE) ouch that’s a very potent setup there for sure View attachment 29339View attachment 29340
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ouch. That’s a very potent set up for sure
 
You know I would agree that this forum is blessed to have a number of very knowledgeable posters. However, with all due respect, intelligence does not mean infallible nor has it earned anyone the right to say whatever, whenever or wherever they want, it just doesn't work that way. Now if you have an opinion about my post and care to rebut or comment, I welcome it, just quote it and post it in a banter thread or PM me. Now I return you to our regularly scheduled Winter torch with a possible wintry spritzer interruption.

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Continuing to see signs of life (albeit on the CFS) but it’s still good to see.

Poleward disruption of the strong PV and -AO see off and on, varying with runs lately. Here’s the most recent one I saw on the 3rd week of January...
2853fd101e19ad893c973a8a3c8a704a.jpg


Now before someone points it out, yes this is the last frame of the GFS operational. Yep. It’s still worth noting, because it moves two huge blocks poleward.

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I’d normally say it’s not worth even noting, but sometimes large changes on operationals even at day 16 can hint at pattern disruption..so I still look.

When we finally get the -AO modeled consistently, we should see things change.

Here’s the EPS. This is the area I’m watching on future runs — if we can get a disruption from a Scandinavia.
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Side: Judah Cohen tweeted on the 00z gfs Op which brought this to my attention.


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One thing that I do like, that the models are generally agreeing on is that in the LR, the PV isn't setting up shop on the other side of the hemisphere. That should theoretically make it easier to get into a colder pattern a little easier...down the line.
 
NoSnowATL said:
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Yep



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Ugh...

TV mets (& everyone in general) need to be very careful when regurgitating precip type output from the European, the column is going to be extremely cold in this setup and the freezing level on the European is below 925mb by the time heavier precip shows up & falls to -3C before wrapping up. The melting layer may be so small near the surface that hydrometeors don't have enough time to melt before reaching the ground.

Thus, that's not exactly game, set, match for all liquid precipitation outside the N GA mountains even on the European which shows cold rain.

I've seen & personally witnessed too many cases where wet snow will reach the ground even with surface temps in the 40s underneath a cold core upper low and this weekend could be another one of those instances.


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Rain Cold said:
One thing that I do like, that the models are generally agreeing on is that in the LR, the PV isn't setting up shop on the other side of the hemisphere. That should theoretically make it easier to get into a colder pattern a little easier...down the line.
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The thing that really hurts is we're still looking at losing two/three weeks of prime winter. Sure we may score a (perfectly timed) flizzard during the next 10 days, but most on here are looking for the big SE snow storm. The (CPC) indices are not in our favor (-PNA, +AO, +NAO).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

**in the spirit of packbacker
 
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@Webberweather53, the CCKW u mentioned on twitter yesterday going into the maritime continent with the warm phases, is it possible that we can get the mjo into the western hemisphere and into more favorable phases after that support cold weather in the east end of January into February? I feel like that's a great question if we have any real chance of salvaging some winter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh...

TV mets (& everyone in general) need to be very careful when regurgitating precip type output from the European, the column is going to be extremely cold in this setup and the freezing level on the European is below 925mb by the time heavier precip shows up & falls to -3C before wrapping up. The melting layer may be so small near the surface that hydrometeors don't have enough time to melt before reaching the ground.

Thus, that's not exactly game, set, match for all liquid precipitation outside the N GA mountains even on the European which shows cold rain.

I've seen & personally witnessed too many cases where wet snow will reach the ground even with surface temps in the 40s underneath a cold core upper low and this weekend could be another one of those instances.


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Idk if the setup was was exactly the same or similar, but I remember we had a situation here back in April 2009 where we had a brief period of snow/grauple with temps in the low 40s. I remember it vividly because it happened during my Spring Break.
 
Broken024 said:
Snow in nc at 190 on gfs
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This is still the time period I’m interested in, in past experience a lot of our storms come in with the 2nd piece of energy or trough timed right on the heels of the initial cold front. Of course timing is everything, but maybe we get lucky before the pattern goes sour.
 
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Not that this will happen but at least there is potential. This still needs work, we need a nice northeast high with a well timed s/w to have a chance.
 
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