Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Arcc]

I'm Stephen and I'm also new to the discussion board. I enjoy the enthusiasm for winter weather on here. and weather in general. I've lived in NC for 39 years and I have seen warm days like the ones we are currently experiencing. It does make one wonder if winter makes a comeback. I honestly don't believe ( history tends to back this up) that we can go thru an entire winter without getting some sort of payback from mother nature. There is alot of cold air over Alaska/Siberia (-40 to -60F) and it has to get dislodged at some point. Now where exactly the core of this super cold air goes is up for debate, but do believe we can't go thru an entire winter and not get at least some snow/ice in the south. I'm model watching like y'all are, but let's give it time and be optimistic.

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Welcome to the forum that is 20% weather discussion and 80% whining. Also be sure to visit the dedicated whining thread and buy something from the gift shop. But hey, at least no one bites here.

 

[MichaelJ]

And the Weather channel chiming in...


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Whew that is very reassuring to me since the Weather Channel is about as accurate as a blind man throwing darts!

 

[Rain Cold]

Welcome to the forum that is 20% weather discussion and 80% whining. Also be sure to visit the dedicated whining thread and buy something from the gift shop. But hey, at least no one bites here.

The ratio seems pretty in line. After all, winter is 20% winter and 80% poop.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Let’s be honest though our average snow every year is like 4-6 inches ... we only average maybe a good storm a year and we’re really expecting storm after storm to come along ... maybe we over expect too much every year .. we live in the southeast it don’t snow here

 

[RollTide18]

Let’s be honest though our average snow every year is like 4-6 inches ... we only average maybe a good storm a year and we’re really expecting storm after storm to come along ... maybe we over expect too much every year .. we live in the southeast it don’t snow here

Yes but in past years we at least have signs whether they verify or not, the models the past 2 weeks have painted a rather bleak picture.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Let’s be honest though our average snow every year is like 4-6 inches ... we only average maybe a good storm a year and we’re really expecting storm after storm to come along ... maybe we over expect too much every year .. we live in the southeast it don’t snow here

Yes and we're going on 13 months without a single threat to track. That's not normal for even the south.

 

[Broken024]

Yes and we're going on 13 months without a single threat to track. That's not normal for even the south.

I think you are forgetting the blizzard of April 2019.

 

[tennessee storm]

Whew that is very reassuring to me since the Weather Channel is about as accurate as a blind man throwing darts!

Been spot on unfortunately last few years

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yes and we're going on 13 months without a single threat to track. That's not normal for even the south.

Wrong we had storms in March and January last winter definitely trackable events

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Wrong we had storms in March and January last winter definitely trackable events

I don't remember anything making it inside 5 days on multiple models to be called a threat except for December. The FV3 junk may have sucked some people in 3 or 4 days out. and maybe an 84 hr NAM, but never remember anything with real model support and a chance of verifying. Unless you count that April flizzard.

 

[Faco Thomas]

And the Weather channel chiming in...


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Unfortunately ,this might be one of the few times where TWC may be correct.With with MJO likely going into warm phases and with the PNA,NAO,and AO being in unfavorable positions,I'm really not expecting much cold for the month of January,atleast until the 2nd half of the month anyway.

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Wrong we had storms in March and January last winter definitely trackable events

Guess depends where you live in NC because we only had storm in December.

 

[whatalife]

Well that’s a slight difference in the euro 00z and 12z...

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[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah the euro was very close to something actually big near the end of its run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there one thing that’s “consistent”, it’s that there’s a transient troughiness signal around hour 190-240 in the eastern US, models that show this : GFS/Euro, GEFS/GEPS (yes it sucks but it’s sum slight) and let’s see what the eps says, if you wanna score that pattern can deliver, but yeah that run of the euro basically flipped the PNA and Got a East based -NAO

 

[Stormdoc]

I can’t say I dislike this look...

 

[Broken024]

Is there any moisture from that low?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Ther

Is there any moisture from that low?

e was some light snow for portions of the south east but very light and the low formed a bit too late but any shift could be gang busters

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The eps will be very telling

 

[Broken024]

Ther

e was some light snow for portions of the south east but very light and the low formed a bit too late but any shift could be gang busters

Ok, buying a snowmobile.