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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

FWIW here is the 10-15 00z EPS 500 height anomalies...
bc80495e7ceb371c7e6f9e0207d883a3.jpg



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I'm Stephen and I'm also new to the discussion board. I enjoy the enthusiasm for winter weather on here. and weather in general. I've lived in NC for 39 years and I have seen warm days like the ones we are currently experiencing. It does make one wonder if winter makes a comeback. I honestly don't believe ( history tends to back this up) that we can go thru an entire winter without getting some sort of payback from mother nature. There is alot of cold air over Alaska/Siberia (-40 to -60F) and it has to get dislodged at some point. Now where exactly the core of this super cold air goes is up for debate, but do believe we can't go thru an entire winter and not get at least some snow/ice in the south. I'm model watching like y'all are, but let's give it time and be optimistic.

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NCCWOP9077 said:
I'm Stephen and I'm also new to the discussion board. I enjoy the enthusiasm for winter weather on here. and weather in general. I've lived in NC for 39 years and I have seen warm days like the ones we are currently experiencing. It does make one wonder if winter makes a comeback. I honestly don't believe ( history tends to back this up) that we can go thru an entire winter without getting some sort of payback from mother nature. There is alot of cold air over Alaska/Siberia (-40 to -60F) and it has to get dislodged at some point. Now where exactly the core of this super cold air goes is up for debate, but do believe we can't go thru an entire winter and not get at least some snow/ice in the south. I'm model watching like y'all are, but let's give it time and be optimistic.

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Welcome to the SouthernWx weenie insane asylum! Great to have you a board.

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KyloG said:
Quite the shift by the GEFS
View attachment 29122View attachment 29121
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Are you talking about the few days of the forecast? I wouldn’t trust it in the COD or anything outside Day 7 on the GEFS.

Check this out...(I know it’s not the bias corrected version but I didn’t have an old screenshot of that)we were supposed to be in the COD and we are obviously in a decent amplitude of phase 7 (map not updated yet)

dd67bf5e3061773d09c4f9ccfa1e55c3.jpg


2adc9e59277e99a947287491af5d405b.gif


The GEFS LR MJO diagram where the spread is increased as noted by the gray areas is notoriously terrible.


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Jon said:
Are you talking about the few days of the forecast? I wouldn’t trust it in the COD or anything outside Day 7 on the GEFS.

Check this out...(I know it’s not the bias corrected version but I didn’t have an old screenshot of that)we were supposed to be in the COD and we are obviously in a decent amplitude of phase 7 (map not updated yet)

dd67bf5e3061773d09c4f9ccfa1e55c3.jpg


2adc9e59277e99a947287491af5d405b.gif


The GEFS LR MJO diagram where the spread is increased as noted by the gray areas is notoriously terrible.


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Thus the bias corrected version. It’s been a couple runs in a row now that has reduced the amplitude in ph 5. That’s about the only thing I implied on that post.
 
KyloG said:
Thus the bias corrected version. It’s been a couple runs in a row now that has reduced the amplitude in ph 5. That’s about the only thing I implied on that post.
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I don’t think the BC version performs any better at low amplitude (talking about the last few days) not sure though.

Also I’m more agreeing with you, drastic changes likely at the tail end of MJO phase diagram plots. So it’s a good thing.


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Jon said:
I don’t think the BC version performs any better at low amplitude.

Also I’m more agreeing with you, drastic changes likely at the tail end of MJO phase diagram plots. So it’s a good thing.


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Your taking these MJO forecast to literally. EPS and GEFS are going to have large spread...though if that was your point then we are on the same page. My point and only point is the GEFSBC has trended less amp in ph 5 over past few days

81737394-7E73-4CE5-9ADF-EF64EFF6F51E.gif838E24F0-AA44-439B-B29D-2D6CFD897E31.gifBEA422EF-0241-4D7E-AF67-940B9A854BBE.png
 
KyloG said:
Your taking these MJO forecast to literally. EPS and GEFS are going to have large spread...though if that was your point then we are on the same page. My point and only point is the GEFSBC has trended less amp in ph 5 over past few days

View attachment 29131View attachment 29132View attachment 29133
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I’m not taking them literally that’s my point. I think we are on the same page.

My point is it can ride the outside of that phase diagram and not enter phase 5 at all. Sorry if I’m not explaining myself correctly it’s early lol


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