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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Sometimes you wonder what happens if you ridge the whole thing from the Pacific into Siberia
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metwannabe said:
Still +AO/+NAO, mostly zonal flow, only thing looks better is the pac ridge nosing poleward as kylo mentioned

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I assume you know this but for those readers who don't, the exact opposite of what this shows would normally be much more conducive to SE cold, a trough near and south of the Aleutians since a ridge there often teleconnects with a -PNA (cold W US into N Plains and upper Midwest) and a trough there often teleconnects with a +PNA. Move the ridge eastward 1,000 miles and I think we'd be in business. Unfortunately that is way easier said than done.
What this is showing is a La Ninaish -PNAish look, which is favored by -AAM, which is predicted to dominate in early Jan. even though it is slightly + today and for the next few days. This kind of look often gets it very cold in a places like Denver and MSP
 
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GaWx said:
I assume you know this but for those readers who don't, the exact opposite of what this shows would normally be much more conducive to SE cold, a trough near and south of the Aleutians since a ridge there often teleconnects with a -PNA and a trough there often teleconnects with a +PNA. Move the ridge eastward 1,000 miles and I think we'd be in business. Unfortunately that is way easier said than done.
What this is showing is a La Ninaish -PNAish look, which is favored by -AAM, which is predicted to dominate in early Jan. even though it is slightly + today and for the next few days.
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This still confuses me I think the models are still very very confused on the evolution of this pattern per these crazy different runs from run to run including their ensembles I definitely don’t believe people should be canceling anything with this much uncertainty but also I just remember Webber being consistent in saying if anything were in an El Niño year so I feel like if a La Niña type pattern try’s to set up it won’t have staying power or maybe it’s just down right wrong .. I think little jogs in the models can really put us in a good spot .. only problem is getting to that point but I think the euro eps put some light into the hope of thing
 
Quite the difference in the GEFS/EPS in the extended. If we didn't have the atlantic side help this would be a fairly AN patter on the EPS, not unlike Feb last winter.

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The main positive I see this winter is that the main cold air availability is and has been on our side of the globe instead of the usual Eurasia. Therefore it would not not take as much to tap into the cold, and we may have more leeway to avoiding a torch, or better yet score a wintry pattern. Frustrating thing is we cannot it buy good teleconnection that would drive the cold air anomalies our way. At least it may be less difficult to make some minor changes to go our way later in the winter.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Luckily we have that 50/50 low. EPS Control has some snow in the MA and some in NC. Bad pattern at H5, but cold 850's
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50/50 low signal has been there, and even during a crap pattern can deliver wintry precip at the beggining of cutters at a minimum, or actually help out the Mslp pattern in the eastern US, if I’m not mistaken something like that happened last January during the last week, can’t remember tho
 
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