Clem282340
Member
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
18z run
00z
Here they are not more members but what members there are, are looking better.
Incoming 
Incoming low cloud bases and wedges
EPS looks much more active especially for the 7-8 storm vs previous run
12z
00z
12z
00z
LR disaster continues. Still no light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm not sure we're actually even anywhere close to the tunnel. Looks pretty mild with occasional cool shots as systems move by.
One positive is it looks wet. Another positive is we get 31 days this month to say ‘Feb is usually our best month for snow’. It’s something at least.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I just read Isotherm’s (from the other board) winter outlook again for a refresher and it has been more or less spot on so far, especially for our region. Per the original outlook, February offers the best potential for cold/snow in the east—BUT the SER is expected to continue to flex its muscles, limiting the cold/snow potential south of DC(again, per the original forecast.)
At this point I’m beginning to wonder if we will even be able to squeak out a favorable 7-10 day window in the SE. Things are not going our way, that is for sure.
Note: If you want to read Iso’s outlook, be sure to bring your dictionary!
Yes the long range pattern is remarkable in its non wintry consistency. Our one window for snow is also closing fast, looking at last nights Euro. The trough just get less impressive every run.
Yeah, he's done well. I will confess that I only ready crappy warm forecasts once. I give him credit, but I don't want to read it again. I would rather just watch it unfold in real time.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is about as ugly of a pattern as you'll ever see around here in the 11-15. At least we know it can't get much worse than this, or so I hope.
0z eps, this image @216 and it literally doesn't budge through the end of the 360 hr run
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Has anyone ever seen ensembles with this much agreement this far out? Honestly, it seems unnatural. Of course, it probably only happens in warm patterns
NoSnowATL
Member
Considering the consistently forecasted (for a good number of days) pretty long duration of high amp warm MJO phases combined with strongly +AO and +NAO as well as the expected return of -AAM after the last few days of +AAM, the very warm midmonth is not all a surprise, especially when considering cold model bias. I mean this combo of factors is like a slot machine hitting all 7s for warmth.
Euro has the MJO spiking well into phase 5. Now, it tried to do that with phase 6 earlier, and it didn't end up quite so bad. I guess the good news is, it isn't spiking into phase 3 and taking the long way around the horn. Maybe it will get into phase 7 before too, too long. Who knows.
Edit: Spikes into phase 4 then 5. Wow. Just horrific.
whatalife
Moderator
This is just ugly! The GEPS, GEFS, and EPS all agree to some extent on days 10-14. They offer very little hope of things turning around anytime soon.
However...The EPS MJO at the end does appear to be trying to go back into COD. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
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However...The EPS MJO at the end does appear to be trying to go back into COD. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
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The weather slots seem to come up all 7s with increasing frequency nowadays. There is definitely some rigging going on.
Oh that’s right. I guess we just suck at law of averages ?