Gfs looks very ridge happy near AK near D10. Building pressures up there too
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pivotal weather now has point and click Euro soundings. Definitely a game changer!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...at_ecmwf&rh=2020010200&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...at_ecmwf&rh=2020010200&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
That is a game changer. Thanks for pointing this out
Hunting around for something positive in the LR and only thing I can say is at least the next week is just a partial torch and maybe just maybe if the EPS is close we might start to see some help from the Atlantic mid month or so....
This is great. When the pattern turns later on, assuming we keep this going, it's going to be a big winter!
Trend is good. At least it may not hurt us as bad.
The ends of the gefs and geps still show how to get out of the ugly or start the process too bad the out is still at the end of the run
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Yeah, I was noticing that. I suppose it's got to start there if it's ultimately going to start at all. What I'm (and I'm sure we all are) going to be looking for is some sustainability to that and for it to move forward. But it's encouraging to see. The good thing is that usually when you're at peak bad, anything looks better and offers reason for hope.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A trough starts to develop east of Japan on the EPS & GEFS near the ends of their runs as the MJO starts to move into the Western Pacific and begins the process of extending the Pacific jet. Barring something crazy (like said MJO not actually reaching the West-Central Pacific as the JMA shows), this process should continue during the 3rd and 4th weeks of January, eventually dislodging the Aleutian ridge poleward in that time.
Well last nights 00z cfs was quite lit for the south east after this pattern change around the last week of January
Let’s hope this thinking isn’t going to verify for the last half of the month:
“The 11-15 Day pattern discussed above may have some staying power
into the latter part of January from a historical perspective. The maps on
right shows 500H and temperature anomalies for analogs from CPC based on the GFS Ensemble Day 11 pushed forward for the 16-30 Day period. These analogs suggest a continued strong –PNA and +EPO signal, implying a continuation of above normal temperatures across the eastern half and belows in the Southwest.” from Maxar
Any thoughts about this? I know many will want to dismiss this simply because it goes against what they want to happen. And had this said the opposite, those same folks would be in total agreement and maybe even give a “like” to it.
“The 11-15 Day pattern discussed above may have some staying power
into the latter part of January from a historical perspective. The maps on
right shows 500H and temperature anomalies for analogs from CPC based on the GFS Ensemble Day 11 pushed forward for the 16-30 Day period. These analogs suggest a continued strong –PNA and +EPO signal, implying a continuation of above normal temperatures across the eastern half and belows in the Southwest.” from Maxar
Any thoughts about this? I know many will want to dismiss this simply because it goes against what they want to happen. And had this said the opposite, those same folks would be in total agreement and maybe even give a “like” to it.
So this is assuming the GEFS are correct 11-15 days out?
The GEFS has a -EPO/+PNA bias. If it didn’t, I might not give much weight to these analogs. But even with that bias, it is still predicting a -PNA/+EPO pretty far out in the forecast. So, I think this should be strongly considered as a realistic possibility with the hope it is wrong.
It's not what I want to hear either. But it's what I've expected for 2 weeks now. I'm no met but I've been watching patterns for a long time. This pattern more often than not has staying power. We can find analogs to suggest a flip, but if one digs I'm sure there are way more years that didn't flip. The nightmare 11-12 comes to mind.
Maybe they'll be right. However, I'm starting to develop an opinion that while analogs provide some value, it might be less than we think. I've seen lots of well-reasoned analogs show why a favorable pattern should move into place that have failed to work out. It seems like only analogs that show warm have a way of working out. I wonder why that is? Maybe it's less about them being good analogs and more about the fact that we're just tilted to warm now.
I don't know how useful analogs really are anymore. I think if you just lean warm, you're going to end up mostly right, which makes it look like the warm analogs you rolled out are right on the money. Now, after reading all of that, it seems somewhat paradoxical, maybe even nonsensical. But I'll post it anyway and let the chips fall.
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Half the analogs are good and half suck. The sucky ones suck a lot.
Good: 07, 89, 89, 00, 09
Any analog pre-1990 seems rather low probability. I can't think of a winter in the past 20 years that we said...oh this is like a 1960's winter.
I'm not even sure analogs before 2010 are very good anymore. Either way, you're left with a very low sample size to choose from, which ends up skewing your result set.
I think you are right. Including this winter.... 7/9 past winters have had a GOA/Aleutian ridge driven pattern. We were fortunate in 2014 the ridge was more poleward, but every other winter has been a vomit fest. 2015 was a nice change, weak nino pattern, and 2016 the super duper nino overwhelmed everything. We really shouldn't be shocked at what's going on this winter...it's the same thing year after year.
But, it's a new decade...I think Feb/March will show us where we are headed for the next 10 years...
Jon
Member
Not dismissing it bc I don’t like it, this just doesn’t work.
A year or two back there was a guy on Twitter who auto generated those “monthly” long range CPC analogs based on the composite years. He had a website up and running and everything. Out to week 3 and week 4, maybe even week 5-6.
It’s a good idea, and I used to do it too, but because of the relative different individual correlations of said analog years and not to mention different background states, they didn’t have any accuracy what so ever. In fact the guy got rid of his website they were so bad and I stopped caring to do it. It’s fun and a neat idea, but it has no use in LR forecasting that I’m aware of.
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Jon
Member
So just to try it. I believe this is what Maxar was doing that @GaWx mentioned but maybe he can clarify. (oddly enough my results are nowhere close to what they were mentioning?)
This is taking the Date centered on the CPC 8-14 day analog (1/12/19) and using the 9 analog dates in the chart to generate a +20 day composite for 2/1/19...
Behold.
Going forward in time only TWO days, gives me this (went forward 2 days in each composite year, making this the supposed forecast for 2/3/2020 based on CPC's analog year composite)
2/4/2020
2/5/2020
2/6/2020
you get the idea. If we were to make a 4 day composite of those last 4 images, we would have quite possibly the coldest best pattern ever. So are we to expect that Feb 3-6? ...common sense would be screaming no.
So I used to do this and provide animations of the predicted pattern, etc. 9 times out of 10 some wild blockbuster pattern showed up and I thought I was onto the next generation of weather forecasting...problem was these composites never materialized.
We'll compare these next month and see how well they did. The issue is CPC 8-14 day analogs will create a centered date of 01/13/19 today and the composite years will be changed, which will change these maps and thus another solution for a period only 1 day different in lead time...
You can't say there's no cold air in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully it stays long enough until the pattern flips. If so, we'll have a quicker turn to cold in the SE. 
Jon
Member
This is what I don’t get with the complaints of the PV on the other side of the hemisphere by sites like Bamwx, we have cold on our side — just nothing to push it south!
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Gefs really wants to use the Pacific ridge to split the tpv then go over the pole and bridge with scandy riding. Seems like the model has a habit of doing this in the extended. Don't get me wrong its nice to see but until the long range eps/geps agree its the gefs doing gefs things. But it also shows you how you get out of the escape room
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This is the main reason that I have remained mildly optimistic about the prospect of at least getting a 2-3 week window that we could see a major storm. The last several years there just simply had not been any true arctic air in our source regions to tap into, so that even when indicies got favorable or any mild hints of blocking showed up, there was no cold air available to take advantage of it.
It'll be interesting to see how temps verify in the d8-14 range versus the ensemble mean temps. Taking the eps mean at face value it's a +8-10 torch but highs short of 60 aren't excessively warm in my opinion. If the warmer pattern does verify you'd have to think these temps are 5-10 too cool and being weighed down by members showing a cooler pattern. That leads me to the question of is there really any value in even looking at the mean temp past maybe D7
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Jon
Member
Oh ok, interesting to see a -NAO on those maps between day 16-30. Maybe this will be exactly how it works out because you can infer we will be in a pattern change in that period. This is a great case study and maybe we can throw data around and look at the CPC analog archive and see if pattern changes and flips were correctly forecasted with this method. I’m going based solely on memory and I don’t think it was that great...here’s to hoping It works out this time
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PisgahNCWeather
Member
Like the positivity fellas! Remember words do have power and it’s best to keep that in mind always.
Euro op so far looks like it might be different a bit. Starting to see some ridge start to build over the pole. And the ridge looks closer to the west coast a bit.
We go from this to HR 194 (so far this run)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah pieces of the building ridge over Scandinavia are getting sent over the pole in the long-range, if we can finally shove this NE Pac ridge into Alaska, we're in great shape to see a legit PV split at the tail end of Jan, with the stronger, primary lobe of the TPV on our side of the pond.
I agree. I know it’s only 1 run but the euro op really wanted to make this happen. We have all the cold on our side of globe. That’s a good thing to start with.
With that EPO doing its thing, If we were able to score a -AO would it only help to strengthen the -PNA or would ridging at the pole begin to drive a new pattern?