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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
RollTide18
Member
Looks like the same crap,different day.If the MJO actually loops right back to the Maritime Continent,we can safely say that this pattern probably will never change to cold,atleast for the SE anyway.
@Ollie Williams this one should be a good one for your thread. appears to be incoming for whole SE
Big beautiful high pressures finally pouring into the US around the 17th that will switch things up nicely for us here in the SE Gfs has been on this for a while now .. don’t know if we can discount it at this point it’s been caving to the euro
GFS with a great look. High pressure dominates the conus and that STJ does its thing. Now let’s go, damnit
We will take anything frozen at this point
Yup and with that much low level cold it would be frozen or freezing further south. But let’s obviously not get ahead of ourselves. Lmao
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
"Omg, this pattern sucks, winter cancel! Look at that big SE ridge!!"
This GFS run is another reminder to everyone that we don't live at 500mb. This kind of look w/ a deep Newfoundland vortex favors cold air damming if the right s/w comes along. It's getting into fantasyland yes, but this is a very obvious reminder that -PNA doesn't automatically = crappy pattern in the SE US, you really have to look deeper than that because a huge 50-50 low squelches the idea of a consistent torch despite the big ridge at 500mb.
This GFS run is another reminder to everyone that we don't live at 500mb. This kind of look w/ a deep Newfoundland vortex favors cold air damming if the right s/w comes along. It's getting into fantasyland yes, but this is a very obvious reminder that -PNA doesn't automatically = crappy pattern in the SE US, you really have to look deeper than that because a huge 50-50 low squelches the idea of a consistent torch despite the big ridge at 500mb.
Yep because we saw today Boone NC can’t even support accumulations on warm roads. Only the grass and even there it melted. And to add it’s really gonna get warmer this weekend.
I really disagree with what the GFS is showing. I think the pattern favors cold rain but can’t rule out ice on metal objects or trees. It’s way to warm this winter and only gonna scorch more this weekend combined with a wet ground that keeps getting wetter. None of this supports major winter wx accumulations on roads or really any depth to it without melting.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Automatically making assumptions about specifics (whether it's too warm or not, etc) from a 10 day solution via a single operational model run like this usually isn't a good idea.
But we can assume the ground will be too saturated given our past few months. GFS shows 3 more big wet events likely bringing warm nights too before any poss. winter wx. That doesn’t bode well for ice accum I would rather see major dry cold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Moderately saturated or dry ground doesn't preclude or entice ice accrual, high temperatures certainly do however. Ice accrual on the ground is usually not the issue with ice storms anyway. Rather, it's the accumulation of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges, trees, & power lines that are actually a concern during ice storms, so idk why this is a discussion point.
And honestly we get a huge blast of cold air before this event begins ... temps going down into the mid 20s in some locations .. that type of cold blast for sure will correct the ground temperatures and help with ice accrual on surfaces
I guess frost doesn't form after warm periods either. Too bad. 
I think until we really get out of MJO bad phases, we could see a big arctic high or 2 push down enough low level cold to produce something like the 12z GFS shows. Not saying its going to happen, but like Webb said....we don't live at H5, and winter can definitely happen without and ideal look at H5.
From what I saw some of the GEFS members had the same setup as well. I couldn't look too much into the members as the website I use to see individual members is down for maintenance. But looking at the snowfall mean it showed snow originating from the same area in Texas and moving east across the SE. This system should be an interesting one to keep an eye on the next few days as models keep trying to sort out the pattern.
A little GEFS support, more or less
edit: sure would be nice to see the SER disappear though
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim that’s still not a warm pattern here, cold advection on the backside of that Atlantic Canada trough will put big surface highs into New England and the Lakes, encouraging cold air damming.
Don't give up on this for CAD regions. Some major ZRs occurred in ATL when there was little or no SN or IP the entire winter and DJF averaged AN, including two of the warmest winters on record; 5 of 7 of these in late Jan:
- 1/30/1882: All 3 months very warm making it one of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 1/30-1/1949: AN Dec; very warm Jan & Feb. One of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR also was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 12/16/1932: AN Dec & Jan; N Feb
- 12/25/1943: N Dec & Jan; mild Feb
- 1/22-23/2000 & 1/28-30/2000: AN Dec; N Jan; mild Feb
- 1/28-9/2005: N Dec; AN Jan & Feb
- 1/30/1882: All 3 months very warm making it one of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 1/30-1/1949: AN Dec; very warm Jan & Feb. One of warmest winters on record. So, this ZR also was an island within a sea of warmth.
- 12/16/1932: AN Dec & Jan; N Feb
- 12/25/1943: N Dec & Jan; mild Feb
- 1/22-23/2000 & 1/28-30/2000: AN Dec; N Jan; mild Feb
- 1/28-9/2005: N Dec; AN Jan & Feb
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Flurry
Member
The SER never really goes away...It just gets beaten down sometimes only to come back with a vengeance...LOL
Agreed, it's why I said there was some gefs support, my edit was basically I'd just feel better if I didn't have to keep looking at that SER... Lol
SnowNiner
Member
I don't know. GEFS is adamant the Aleutian ridge goes nowhere. Looks stronger this run too. If true, I haven't seen an eastern ridge hang tough this long in a while. Why can't an eastern trough be that stable? Combine this with the mjo probably circling back....
Sad.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I understand lol but the good CAD events around here usually have a ridge parked right over us at 500mb. This mid-level ridge in concert w/ an Atlantic Canada trough means that there's cold air advection in the low-levels being overrun by a warmer, mid-level air mass. The ridge being there at 500mb actually makes the CAD stronger because it strengthens the inversion across the top of the CAD dome.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
View attachment 29914
I don't know. GEFS is adamant the Aleutian ridge goes nowhere. Looks stronger this run too. If true, I haven't seen an eastern ridge hang tough this long in a while. Why can't an eastern trough be that stable? Combine this with the mjo probably circling back....
The GEFS has been very adamant on a ridge over the Aleutians in the extended and until this most recent run, it was continually backing away from it. This model has a bias to overamplify anticyclonic wave breaks in the North-Northeast Pacific storm track so I'd be weary of the placement & amplitude of said ridge even though the tropical forcing would support it at least thru the 20th.
As for the MJO returning to the Maritime Continent, I'm not really buying it at least that quickly anyways. I think people need to remind themselves that the RMM MJO index only explains a third of the total subseasonal variance in OLR, U200, & U850, the other 67% is not captured in this index thus it's not an end-all be-all.
I should also add still another major late Jan SE ZR within an otherwise mild winter: the one of 1/24-26/1922 that gave CHS/SAV an extremely rare major ZR (one of even near that magnitude hasn't been seen since in SAV) and that later lead to big snows NC and into the NE US (Knickerbocker Storm tragedy).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm is also where the legend of Roxboro was born.
Three. Feet. of. Snow.
Wtf.
That 9.4" in Raleigh seems awesome until you realize Durham nearly got double that. Smdh, can't even do anything right even in the good ol days.
Well, it's different from 0z and 12z yesterday...I'll give it that.
I don’t hate where that Euro run ended..if we can get high pressure to slide in behind that big blue ball exiting the EC we could be $$$..assuming the next wave doesn’t cut with that big ridge hanging around..I’m not even sure what keeps it from doing so, honestly 
Drscottsmith
Member
Do historical maps such as this exist for South Carolina?
slight high pressure strength disagreement...this should end well
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is actually some pretty epic disagreement for 2 ensemble suites inside 300 hours.
Model fight!
Who ya takin?
Model fight!
Who ya takin?