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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

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The GEFS has backed way off on the Arctic cold. So, that tells me to be wary of an Arctic cold bias for the GEFS as other models were much warmer.

Current: pitiful
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Snowfan said:
I wonder if a snownado is going to form.
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If there's sufficient low-level shear & lift it's certainly plausible. You often see "snowspouts" over the Great Lakes in association w/ very intense lake effect snow bands, occasionally they'll come onshore.

Here's a good recent example of one over the southern end of Lake Huron earlier this fall.

 
We are within 5-6 days of a possible ULL snow maker across the SE. Start a thread.

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The happy hour GFS nearly delivered two storms for the price of one in this small favorable window we have to work w/ in early January.

Almost no chance it happens but the odds of some of us scoring twice in this pattern aren't zero. We're far more likely to not see anything at all but this should at least keep us mildly entertained for the time being.

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Webberweather53 said:
The happy hour GFS nearly delivered two storms for the price of one in this small favorable window we have to work w/ in early January.

Almost no chance it happens but I the odds of some of us scoring twice in this pattern aren't zero. We're far more likely to not see anything at all but this should at least keep us mildly entertained for the time being.

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Basically the GEFS is all in on the front end of this threat window ~ Jan 5-10, the EPS is almost exclusively focused on the latter portions of it. GEFS - EPS compromise would actually give us 2 storms in this pattern. If only it actually worked that way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The happy hour GFS nearly delivered two storms for the price of one in this small favorable window we have to work w/ in early January.

Almost no chance it happens but I the odds of some of us scoring twice in this pattern aren't zero. We're far more likely to not see anything at all but this should at least keep us mildly entertained for the time being.

View attachment 29319

View attachment 29320
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the old CAE shut out lol
 
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