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Pattern The Great December Dump

The facts that the eps has 10 members showing a significant ice storm tells me that there is definitely a chance this thing turn a 180 on us and brings us an ice storm .. that’s some solid agreement for an outside chance .. let’s see if more climb aboard
 
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Tough not to imagine the possibilities as we close out Dec into Jan with this look. #blocking

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Agreed. I'm very happy to see that in the longer range. Seeing lower heights in the NE with greenland ridge is really great. If we can get that to show up at the end of the month we could kick off January right. Let's see if it persists and if EPS agrees.
 
You can tell the GFS is struggling hard with this CAD which is not unusual for these events. Got to get the NAM and RGEM in range.

Yeah, in my opinion this is a classic case of global models underestimating CAD. The high is a in similar position to what it was in the 00z runs, and precip is seemingly quicker to arrive but at 12z Friday the 12z has most of NC as rain while the 00z has ZR coming down into parts of Upstate SC.
 
From GSP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 am Monday: A rather progressive upper air pattern will
result in unsettled weather during much of the medium range, as a
series of short wave troughs are forecast to interact with a
baroclinic zone draped across the Southeast. The extended period
will begin dry and cool, but pops will gradually ramp up late Thu
into Friday, during which time moisture and upglide associated with
a developing Gulf Coast surface wave are expected to overspread the
Southeast. Owing to the cool and dry conditions, and precip falling
Fri morning could fall as light freezing rain, mainly across the
mountain valleys near the Blue Ridge and along the I-40 corridor in
the Piedmont and foothills. While light accums cannot be ruled out,
and pronounced in-situ/hybrid cold air damming will likely develop
in response to any falling precip, current guidance indicates that
parent surface high pressure will be in an unfavorable location to
lock in sub-freezing temps for any significant length of time.
Thus,
a quick transition to rain is forecast by Fri afternoon. Likely pops
will otherwise be advertised by Friday afternoon, continuing into
Saturday before slowly tapering off late Sat/Sat night. Dry
conditions should return by Day 7. Temps will begin the period below
normal, possibly ending up well below normal under Friday`s cold air
damming regime, then return to above-normal levels by Day 7.
 
Cmc looks like it’s going to hold true
Looks like the HP is scooting out faster. Surface temps and dewpoints are couple of degrees warmer than 0z.

EDIT: The precip seems to be moving in a bit faster though. It may look the same in the end.
 
One theme so far today, precip coming in earlier thus a longer period of frozen precip.
I agree, although keeping an eye on the HP is important. On this run of the Canadian, the HP also moved out faster. This run was 2-3 degrees warmer at the surface than the 0z. Don't get too distracted with the freezing rain maps.
 
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