As of right now you won’t be. It’s been closed because it’s been so dangerous with low snow levels and mud. Sapphire is suppose to reopen this Friday but look at the forecast...multiple inches of rain and hot weather.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Well if that isn’t encouragingMJO keeps going!
Jon
Member
MJO keeps going!
People can’t deny this one, it’s definitely an MJO wave. The cool thing is models are predicting a pattern change by this time, and as Webb has said, phase 7 supports snow storms in NC. Not only that, but Baxter et al. says expect cold 10-20 days after Phase 7 during winter months. Since this is high amplitude, I’m not expecting a transient cold shot but a more sustained pattern of cold and stormy.
The euro looks like it wants to get some blocking going as well at the end of the run.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Let's keep accelerating through 4,5, and 6. And let's hope we can throw ourselves deep enough into 8 and loop into 1 instead of crash back into the COD and go back into 4.MJO keeps going!
MJO keeps going!
Before getting to better phases, this is the strongest GEFS phase 5 run yet with ~4 amp on 1/12/20, which would be close to a record strongest phase 4 or 5 for winter going back to 1975! Even if slightly overdone (my guess), it would still be the second strongest by a good margin.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
What are the implications of this if we carry the high amp into phase 7? I think things could get interesting if we enter phase 7 at a high amplitude (which eric has shown some sort of correlation with SE winterstorms, is that correct) & kinda dive towards the circle but at an angle towards 8...
packfan98
Moderator
See Jon's tweet. I've also read from a couple of mets that think we will get to 8.
I know it favors winter storms in the Carolina's, Larry @GaWx has noted many times that the COD is good for winter weather (focused on Atl). I'm curious if P7 and P8 are as good in the deep south as it is for the Carolina's
I know that Phase 7 has been money for Central and Eastern NC, especially since 1985, but I’m just curious as to how well we’ve done when it’s that amped up.MJO keeps going!
NoSnowATL
Member
I’ve canceled and un canceled 2 times I think . I’ll save my last one for February.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For ATL, there have been 8 different storms that produced either major ZR or major IP since MJO phase records started in 1975. For 7 of these 8, the MJO was inside the COD and the other one was in the COD one of the 2 days of the storm.
OTOH, major snows were different.
Looks like Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas are trending a little snowier in the short term on the GFS. Nice to see winter somewhere in the s/e.
Thor
Member
Nice to see a little Blocking showing up for the first time in a while
Six Mile Wx
Member
All in. ?. No need to wait till Fab Feb, January looks to be lit for 2 weeks. Lower elevations will be crying for spring by the time February is here.
Shaggy
Member
Looks promising. Let's hope the STJ stays juiced and rolling when these cold shots get in here.
RollTide18
Member
It seems like it took forever to get the 540 line down this way
