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Deleted member 1449
Guest
Maybe we will finally thaw Alaska! 
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
But once it's down there, it doesn't want to go very far even with an incoming front. Maybe we can finally get some nice cold and snow out of this.It seems like it took forever to get the 540 line down this way
It's really good to see a few back to back LR progs depict a favorable progression. If this continues, we are going to see some big winter storms show up. The very end of the run is close and shows the potential that I feel the pattern is capable of, if it comes to pass.
Weren’t u saying like 2 hours ago it wasn’t going to happen since we’ve been “hot” and wet
NWMSGuy
Member
This might be a ridiculous question, but knowing how models can flip from one run to the next, how often do these MJO models flip? I'm hoping like most the MJO continues to move into more favorable phases for the Southeast.
Valid question. The other day we were seeing it dying in ph6. BUT it was still oh so close to ph7 before doing so..So hopefully we are moving in a favorable direction now. I’m with @Rain Cold..I think we’re about to start seeing some big dogs show up inside and around the 240 mark.
They're basically on the same latitude as we are further east. They can score and we can't, all thanks to the eastern ridge!
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Not a ridiculous question at all and true just the other day it was dying in P6 but and I don't know for sure (someone will correct me I'm sure) but it seems to me that usually what happens is what we are seeing. It doesn't necessarily flip but corrects or extends to the next phase, especially when it is amped. I just don't recall a very amped MJO wave just collapsing as quickly as what the GEFS was showing the other day, and if this holds then hopefully it will also traverse into P8. But as you can tell by my verbiage, an MJO expert I ain't.
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Mostly thanks to less maritime influence and no App ridge to block the cold air
Jon
Member
The MJO phase diagram is based on modeling so technically they can flip and change around by going in a different direction, but at high amplitude are more predictable and less likely to flip because the MJO is a measure of tropical rainfall and circulation, and as it moved eastward, enters different “phases”. Because we are confident we have a strong MJO, it’s less likely to all of a sudden turn around and go back to Phase 4 or 5, because since it’s moving East, it has to go counter clockwise on the phase diagram.
By just following precipitation accumulation on this composite, you can see how it moves from left to right (west to east) and the corresponding phases.
There’s other ways to look at the MJO, through 200VP maps and OLR maps, but they’re all measuring the same propagation of the wave...so I find it’s easier for people to look at precipitation diagrams or OLR (outgoing long wave radiation) which measures thunderstorm activity as a way of “tracking” the MJO. The blue colors in the following diagrams is lower OLR (strong thunderstorms have high cooler/cold cloud tops, which registers as low on this chart) as you can see the blue lines up with the precip maps above.
It’s much easier for the MJO diagram to loop around and change direction when there’s not a prominent wave and some other waves are impacting the phase diagrams, such as the tropical storms north of Australia we saw, spiking us into Phase 4.
I know very little about the MJO and still trying to learn but I hope this helps.
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NWMSGuy
Member
Thanks for the explanation!
@Jon explanation is 10x better however... Lol
packfan98
Moderator
Downeastnc
Member
LOL yeah I was like this is why I visit these boards.....
NWMSGuy
Member
I'm learning just as much as the next person so this certainly helps! Thanks for the detailed info!The MJO phase diagram is based on modeling so technically they can flip and change around by going in a different direction, but at high amplitude are more predictable and less likely to flip because the MJO is a measure of tropical rainfall and circulation, and as it moved eastward, enters different “phases”. Because we are confident we have a strong MJO, it’s less likely to all of a sudden turn around and go back to Phase 4 or 5, because since it’s moving East, it has to go counter clockwise on the phase diagram.
By just following precipitation accumulation on this composite, you can see how it moves from left to right (west to east) and the corresponding phases.
There’s other ways to look at the MJO, through 200VP maps and OLR maps, but they’re all measuring the same propagation of the wave...so I find it’s easier for people to look at precipitation diagrams or OLR (outgoing long wave radiation) which measures thunderstorm activity as a way of “tracking” the MJO. The blue colors in the following diagrams is lower OLR (strong thunderstorms have high cooler/cold cloud tops, which registers as low on this chart) as you can see the blue lines up with the precip maps above.
It’s much easier for the MJO diagram to loop around and change direction when there’s not a prominent wave and some other waves are impacting the phase diagrams, such as the tropical storms north of Australia we saw, spiking us into Phase 4.
I know very little about the MJO and still trying to learn but I hope this helps.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
There's this to consider: there have been 15 very high amp phases 4/5 and all 15 went on to reach phase 7 though two of those got to phase 7 only within the COD and another case was barely outside the COD when in 7.
So maybe high amp 5-6 is a necessary evil if we want to see 7-8-1-2..just got to make sure we aren’t entering high amp 4-5-6 during peak winter climo..maybe it’s not too late..maybe this could all work out ??
Makes you wonder...last 2 years we went though low amp 7-8-1-2 and high 7-8-1-2 for Jan into Feb which resulted in the same pattern GEFS keeps spitting out. Things that make you go hmmm...
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SnowNiner
Member
Wow, that's a good point. All this mjo discussion could be hogwash. Didn't help us the last 2 years.