Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[BIG FROSTY]

A little SE nod from JB

So here comes the test. In about a week to 10 days cold is going to be pushing even into the south to some degree. Big thunderstorms are going off tomorrow ( Texas) to Sunday) into the SE and MA. The old southern folklore that within 10 days after a winter thunderstorm, it snows, could be put to the test.

Meanwhile if this cold does push, the Mega MJO of 1978 comes to mind. I have given up on the euro and its MJO forecast. its correcting, but the GEFS has been better and this looks like the opposite of a few years ago, when we had favorable MJO for cold, but there was no cold to be had. Now we have an MJO that is fighting but the cold is on the table. The CFSV2 for the 10 days starting the 20th is absurdly cold, but its been consistent
Last 10 days of the month

 

[Myfrotho704_]

the position of the SW is definitely a issue, only if it was farther south, but the H5 pattern does support CAD around this time, and the GFS/gefs has been highlighting potential for that around this time

 

[KyloG]

Usually we are on the other side of this

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Lol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.

Bout right. Snow cutoff on my doorstep and 8” thirty miles from me. Lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Usually we are on the other side of this

View attachment 30096View attachment 30097

Weaker -PNA, cutoff ridge more East in AK, little bit of a 50/50 low signal, not bad

 

[John1122]

That 18z GFS was bitter. Parts of the Tennessee Valley stay in the single digits January 23rd.

 

[pcbjr]

That 18z GFS was bitter. Parts of the Tennessee Valley stay in the single digits January 23rd.

This is not meant to be negative in any way ... parts of the SE are forecasted to be cold, but that is not a present tense or any sort of guaranteed thing ... it is indeed nice to see a model show what the 18z suggests, and some consistent later runs by it and other models would lend credence, but until it happens, please Folks, enjoy the movie, but remember that it's only a movie (for now) ...

 

[Avalanche]

This is not meant to be negative in any way ... parts of the SE are forecasted to be cold, but that is not a present tense or any sort of guaranteed thing ... it is indeed nice to see a model show what the 18z suggests, and some consistent later runs by it and other models would lend credence, but until it happens, please Folks, enjoy the movie, but remember that it's only a movie (for now) ...

He did preface it with the 18gfs, so I took it he knew not to expect it.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Lol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.

That's the furthest south I've ever seen snow cover on the GFS

 

[pcbjr]

He did preface it with the 18gfs, so I took it he knew not to expect it.

This is close to banter ... but I also said there was nothing negative ... I was just sharing a broad observation ...

 

[SETNwx]

add ten degrees and it's probably closer to reality:

 

[NoSnowATL]

add ten degrees and it's probably closer to reality: View attachment 30101

Seems hard to get that cold without snow cover.


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[John1122]

He did preface it with the 18gfs, so I took it he knew not to expect it.

Yes. I was referencing the model run. But with it being the coldest period climatology wise and the 500mb pattern shown with extreme Pacific blocking and the PV moving south, those temps would be on the table if the players came to pass as modeled. Especially with the GFS having a snow covered source region in those areas and just upstream.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Lol, more snow cover over Florida than Alabama.

All together now... “NORTHWEST TREND!!!”


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[John1122]

Seems hard to get that cold without snow cover.


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Its happened here before. Sadly the -EPO Arctic drought of 2017 saw below 0 cold in my area of Tennessee with no snow cover at all. The creek by my house froze 6 inches thick during January. I believe the deep south saw some big snow events during that time frame due to the extreme cold push.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Its happened here before. Sadly the -EPO Arctic drought of 2017 saw below 0 cold in my area of Tennessee with no snow cover at all. The creek by my house froze 6 inches thick during January. I believe the deep south saw some big snow events during that time frame due to the extreme cold push.

Yep even the W Kerr Scott reservoir froze in Wilkes. That has like never happened. Then a year later we set the record highest water level. Extremes are the new norm IMO.

 

[GaWx]

This is not meant to be negative in any way ... parts of the SE are forecasted to be cold, but that is not a present tense or any sort of guaranteed thing ... it is indeed nice to see a model show what the 18z suggests, and some consistent later runs by it and other models would lend credence, but until it happens, please Folks, enjoy the movie, but remember that it's only a movie (for now) ...

It is just a movie, but why do I think you wrote the script?

One last walk outside for awhile right now. About 55 F/still nice..

 

[Chazwin]

Its happened here before. Sadly the -EPO Arctic drought of 2017 saw below 0 cold in my area of Tennessee with no snow cover at all. The creek by my house froze 6 inches thick during January. I believe the deep south saw some big snow events during that time frame due to the extreme cold push.

Yeah, the Arctic blast of January 2018 gave me low of 2 above with no snowcover. Thirty miles to our east had 3 inches on the ground and got down to minus 3.

 

[Stormlover]

I'm sniffing something coming...time to jump back in here

 

[Deleted member 418]

I'm sniffing something coming...time to jump back in here

Welcome back