Let’s say the MJO goes favorable in late January, what’s the fly in the ointment?
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given the pre-existing ridge in the NE Pacific (which we didn't really have in late Dec during this most recent bout of West Pac forcing) plus a build-up of +AAM in the tropics both suggest this bout of forcing may be more efficient at dislodging the ridge into Alaska like we want to see. Synoptic-scale eddy behavior that's not predictable more than a week or so out and significant attenuation (weakening) of this Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the West-Central Pacific would be a couple flies in the ointment that come to my mind which may screw all of this up.
I read PSU’s writeup on the MA forum and an early January pattern such as this usually doesn’t end well. There are anonymous cases of warning criteria snowstorms for our latitude in the east during the second half of winter but they are few and far between..Also, I’m not a big believer in analogs so I don’t feel completely defeated just yet. But I’m more than halfway there. Bur what do I know, anyway
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I seem to recall a big cold/snow event in April 2007. I was in TN in Mid April that year and it was snowing pretty good.
Also, 04-05 flipped from very warm (and actually the warmest since 1975 by far for 12/29-1/13) to cold 1/14-2/6. You may want to check that one out.
What was that southern stream like in 07’?
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks like all the flips from warm to cold happens the 2nd or 3rd week in January. So given that I think I would wait to punt until at least the 20-25th timeframe.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NoSnowATL
Member
I see the cold Seattle. That’s all I need to see to know what the SE would look like.
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So there’s hope. Unless she shuts off. Which there’s no reason to think that’s happening any time soon
My Rainier was getting shellacked!
Indeed, ~1/16+ is still way up in the air, especially if the MJO were to get out of the Maritime Continent.
More on the severe 04-05 flip from the warmest late Dec-early Jan since at least 1974-5 to a cold last half of Jan into early Feb that included significant wintry precip:
12/29/04-1/13/2005
- a whopping +16 at KRDU and +13 at KATL, the torch of torches!
- only one freeze at KRDU and none at KATL
- all 16 days AN at both places
1/14-2/6/2005
- 7 BN at KRDU and 4 BN at KATL, about the biggest turnaround to colder since 1975 for this timeframe
- Freezes: 20 of 24 days at KRDU and 14 of 24 at KATL
- Both had significant to major ZR including the 1st major one at KATL since, you guessed it, the one in late Jan of 2000 that also produced the Carolina Crusher!! KRDU also had accumulating snow.
If I get time, I'll check the various indices for this. Or maybe someone else can chime in on the indices for then?
Indices for 2004-05 severe flip from major torch late Dec/early Jan to cold mid Jan to early Feb
- strong -EPO domination both periods
- strong -PNA for warm period which changed to strong +PNA for cold period
- strong +NAO warm period; weaker +NAO to sometimes neutral cold period
- strong +AO warm period; strong -AO cold period
- MJO mainly in high amp phases 4-5 in warm period; lower amp and sometimes even in COD cold period including some on the left side
So, folks, I think I've found a way better analog than 1999-2000 as regards the MJO as current is much more similar to 2004-5. However, the last reported was a solidly +EPO. It would need to switch to a solid -EPO very soon to be similar to early Jan of 2005. Note that both periods had a major switch from -PNA to +PNA.
Jon
Member
2007-08 a good analog I think, just doesn't end well....
last part of Dec 2007, +AO/+NAO, Alaska in the freezer, warm east in general... 12/10/07 featured a high of 81!
First half of January 2008. Featured more of the same, notice Scandinavia block building. This period featured monthly highs of 73 at RDU on 1/08-1/09. The first half of January featured cold shots but not super cold, warm overall. +EPO
Then came the mid month cool down. Our friend the GOA ridge. This period featured near normal temps for RDU a few below normal days.
But even in this period, we had a storm!
and another!
Last half of January....well this is awkward...that GOA ridge is still there. +AO/+NAO/-PNA
Fab Feb 2008?
First half of Feb...oh dear lord.
Last half. Colder, sure...but no blocking and a +NAO/+AO means near normal and some above normal days for RDU. No snow.
You don't want to see March.
I was actually just running with this and was hoping we'd get a stormy flip late, but we didn't. We did have two storms in January though so not all is lost even if we don't get a flip to cold and blocking...
edit: just ignore the attachments at the bottom of my post I don't know what I'm doing lol
last part of Dec 2007, +AO/+NAO, Alaska in the freezer, warm east in general... 12/10/07 featured a high of 81!
First half of January 2008. Featured more of the same, notice Scandinavia block building. This period featured monthly highs of 73 at RDU on 1/08-1/09. The first half of January featured cold shots but not super cold, warm overall. +EPO
Then came the mid month cool down. Our friend the GOA ridge. This period featured near normal temps for RDU a few below normal days.
But even in this period, we had a storm!
and another!
Last half of January....well this is awkward...that GOA ridge is still there. +AO/+NAO/-PNA
Fab Feb 2008?
First half of Feb...oh dear lord.
Last half. Colder, sure...but no blocking and a +NAO/+AO means near normal and some above normal days for RDU. No snow.
You don't want to see March.
I was actually just running with this and was hoping we'd get a stormy flip late, but we didn't. We did have two storms in January though so not all is lost even if we don't get a flip to cold and blocking...
edit: just ignore the attachments at the bottom of my post I don't know what I'm doing lol
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
1988-89 is a fantastic example of this "freezer or fryer" analogy when it comes to -EPOs.
Many places in eastern NC hit 75-80F before the huge event on Feb 17-19 1989, warmed back up and nearly hit 75-80F again, only to get raked by another system a few days after that on Feb 23-24 1989.
Central AL had a decent snow in early March 2008. I think some places received 2-3", although my location only had 1.5" in a dandruff blizzard. I really only remember it because the day before was warm, although that wasnt why it is absolutely unforgettable to my dying day.
Edit: Never mind it actually was in January. I guess I thought it was in March due to how warm it was the day before the snow.
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