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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Euro is much warmer in the East through 210 vs the GFS but colder upstream in southern Canada. Both have the cutter at that hour that helps pull down the cold in its wake on the GFS. The GFS had a 1045 north of the Lakes pressing cold into the Ohio valley and Carolinas that led to frozen. Not there on the Euro and temps in the Eastern GLs are 30 degrees warmer on the Euro.
 
The Euro starts diverging from the GFS solution even before day 5. The euro doesn’t seem to be following its own trends.
 
Yeah luckily the EPS does not support the rouge euro solution .. sometimes you just get spoof operational runs .. how the cookie crumbles sometimes .. now we must wait for 12z
 
Most of the time it’s delayed not denied. And I hope no one is sold on any specific storm let’s just get a major cold air mass first.
 
To me it looks like our key to a tall western Ridge is the Low that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians, it seems to really pump up that ridge. And, it’s on the last 2 GFS runs.
 

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Here are days 10-15 on the current ensemble runs...
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Wow talk about some big dogs on the latest 06z GEFS ... quite a few big dogs actually ... this up come pattern is the one to produce one the question is if we can line it up right ... I say if we do get a storm it’s going to be an all in type of deal for sure
 
I’m very hopeful for the cold making its first appearance. But I believe the GFS is being very weenie with some of these storms that may feature very little snow..better chance of cold rain/mix or dry. Let’s just hope one winter storm occurs for all (likely not gonna be Florida or coastal Carolinas).
 
Our big daddy got shredded on this run. Was really hoping to get that first cold push in before next weekend but delay delay delay


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Around D9 the SER starts getting pistol whipped and from that point on the eps and all ensembles seemingly lock in on a sustained colder pattern. I'll worry about specific storms later, if we can get some sustained cold IT WILL BE game on at some point before Winter is over. #uncancelwinter
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Yeah luckily the EPS does not support the rouge euro solution .. sometimes you just get spoof operational runs .. how the cookie crumbles sometimes .. now we must wait for 12z
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Still would like to start seeing the Euro Op show some colder solutions. Obviously the EPS is looking good in the long term, but I do not start getting hopeful until the Op also shows it. No doubt the pattern is changing, but last nights euro showed what can screw up a colder pattern with it sending the colder air to the other side of the globe just when we change to a better pattern. I am still optimistic things have got to be better, and it will at least occur during our coldest of time of the year
 
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Stormdoc said:
Still would like to start seeing the Euro Op show some colder solutions. Obviously Thur EPS is looking good in the long term, but I do not start getting hopeful until the Op also shows it. No doubt the pattern is changing, but last nights euro showed what can screw up a colder pattern with it sending the colder air to the other side of the globe just when we change to a better pattern. I am still optimistic things have got to be better, and it will at least occur during our coldest of time of the year
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Yeah. Euro not biting ... it won’t take much to beat this crappy pattern of winter we are in.
 
If you take the nhem view of 500mb heights on tidbits and loop the entire run of the gefs and geps you can see a lot of fun stuff happening. The main area of interest to me is in east asia to the western north America coast. Watch how initially the okhotsk low tries to get going and force a taller Pacific ridge, that construct gets interfered with but the fracturing ridge eventually leads to smog troughing to beat the SE ridge back, it also ruins the stability of the entire Pacific pattern. Now as you progress out toward d5 we do it again, okhotsk low, ridge into AK. This time as the trough drops into the PNW the high has been shoved far enough north the PNW trough splits with part retrograding under the ridge and part progressing into the US. After that the okhotsk low extends into the aleutians big ridge goes into AK, you start to impinge on the tpv.

There are going to be a lot of iterations of this development over the next 5 days especially on the operational models since its not exactly a clean evolution. Once we get the 2nd surge of ridging into AK we will probably see less wild swings and have a better idea of what's coming up.

Now if you want to really hypothesize this pattern could go full bore freeze for the central and eastern us. If we start to inch the okhotsk low more toward the aleutians and really start forcing the AK ridge poleward its look out below. I'd watch the tpv in northern siberia over the coming days if by chance it starts meddling around with these okhotsk lows we could really see a nice trough developing in that region. It could also develop and be under cut and we lose the AK ridge or we start getting the center of the AK ridge too far north and energy starts retrograding under it and you have the ugly -pna again.

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SD said:
If you take the nhem view of 500mb heights on tidbits and loop the entire run of the gefs and geps you can see a lot of fun stuff happening. The main area of interest to me is in east asia to the western north America coast. Watch how initially the okhotsk low tries to get going and force a taller Pacific ridge, that construct gets interfered with but the fracturing ridge eventually leads to smog troughing to beat the SE ridge back, it also ruins the stability of the entire Pacific pattern. Now as you progress out toward d5 we do it again, okhotsk low, ridge into AK. This time as the trough drops into the PNW the high has been shoved far enough north the PNW trough splits with part retrograding under the ridge and part progressing into the US. After that the okhotsk low extends into the aleutians big ridge goes into AK, you start to impinge on the tpv.

There are going to be a lot of iterations of this development over the next 5 days especially on the operational models since its not exactly a clean evolution. Once we get the 2nd surge of ridging into AK we will probably see less wild swings and have a better idea of what's coming up.

Now if you want to really hypothesize this pattern could go full bore freeze for the central and eastern us. It could also develop and be under cut and we lose the AK ridge or we start getting the center of the AK ridge too far north and energy starts retrograding under it and you have the ugly -pna again.

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I really like the Cutoff low in the SE the GEFS advertises. If we can get that to become more progressive in future model runs, we'll be in business.
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ATLwxfan said:
This right here may be the best evidence we’ve had in a year that something is cooking.


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I agree. I don’t think I’ve ever seen CLT with an ensemble mean of 3.5 inches that far out. One thing to keep in mind is that we might see some wild swings in the operational models over the next several days....this happens quite a bit as pattern changes approach.
 
SD said:
Just going to save this image. Either we look at it like holy crap it nailed it or what could have been
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It looks as if the GEFS is trying to elongate and split the TPV into two areas of cold air, one of the other side of the pole and the other piece over Canada and the US, which Judah mentioned yesterday about the 00z GFS doing the same thing.

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Ollie Williams said:
I really like the Cutoff low in the SE the GEFS advertises. If we can get that to become more progressive in future model runs, we'll be in business.
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I saw that pretty strong signal on the vort maps too. Even the geps are hinting at getting more of a split flow look post 240. I almost wish I could unsee this to be honest and I really wish the eps mean was a little more enthusiastic.
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7 more days of disgusting weather for the ski resorts in the s/e then the HAMMER SLAMS DOWN. Excellent, STRONG, snow making conditions with AMPLE opportunities for real snow too. Possible good enough snowpack to last for all of February into March? We will see.
 
NCCWOP9077 said:
It looks as if the GEFS is trying to elongate and split the TPV into two areas of cold air, one of the other side of the pole and the other piece over Canada and the US, which Judah mentioned yesterday about the 00z GFS doing the same thing.

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Agreed. Just using the canadian ensembles as an example since they are a little more emphatic about the progression here. Troughing in east asia, ridging in ak goes poleward, Pv starts getting interrupted and elongated part of it settles into Canada the rest is over Siberia back into the east asian low. Suddenly you gave a large lobe of the pv descending south through canada, ridging over the pole into Greenland and a cold US pattern. This is the evolution that we saw attempted in late December that got me excited but a bad mjo phase and low aam didn't help. This time with hopefully a more favorable mjo progression or at least some poleward propagating +aam from the recent spike we can pull it off.

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KyloG said:
Looking at heights on EPS I am surprised it's registered as a +EPO while GEFS/GEPS is solidly negative.


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It's a good example of how the calculations don't always exactly match the pattern effect. Sort of like on the other side, sometimes we see a -NAO and the thing is so far east, we get no benefit here. In this case, it seems like the opposite. I don't know exactly how the numeric values of the EPO domain are calculated, but you have to think the big blue, deep PV NE of AK is the culprit.
 
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