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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

ATLwxfan said:
Dumb question but what is more favorable?


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It's up to you. The GEFS has a better Pacific look, while the EPS has a better -NAM look (-AO and -NAO). The EPS is better for cold, while the GEFS is better for snow. We want the EPS to trend towards the GEFS on the Pacific, but the GEFS to trend towards the Artic look on the EPS.
 
Ollie Williams said:
It's up to you. The GEFS has a better Pacific look, while the EPS has a better -NAM look (-AO and -NAO). The EPS is better for cold, while the GEFS is better for snow. We want the EPS to trend towards the GEFS on the Pacific, but the GEFS to trend towards the Artic look on the EPS.
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Honestly though we would rather have the blocking more than anything
 
KyloG said:
One difference between the EPS/GEFS is the GEFS has a much stronger Npac low as seen above in Storms post. Will be interesting to see how that unfolds with the EPS.

Retrogression of west coast trough

View attachment 30261
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It’s there in the composite here. It kinda has to be with the -EPO that the GEFS is predicting.
8199a39d546ac2f5beb7c96a7a3335a6.jpg


1a5f9856666d8216ccbaa904f5a5a359.jpg




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KyloG said:
The GEFS
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I’d say the GEFS with its strong -EPO is favorable if you want deep cold. EPS is more favorable for snow although less cold (but we are in late January, so “less cold” is still below climo and fine for snow)...If the GEFS is correct it’s going to get VERY cold in the east. Lucky for us, both are favorable winter patterns.


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Webberweather53 said:
Just as a refresher:

"When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016) east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!

Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!"

View attachment 29957

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220651


Cmonnnn phase 7!
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Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
January MJO Phase 7 500mb N hem composite NC winter storms.gif

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

January Phase 7 MJO composite N hem 500mb.png



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png
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I do like how the ensembles are progressing, but it is a little troubling that neither the GFS or the Euro Ops are all that cold. I realize the pattern really isn't getting going till around D10 or after, but you'd think we'll have to start seeing some consistency in the operationals sooner or later.
 
packfan98 said:
Wait and post again at the end. Half of the members have a major SE winter storm at hour 384. Geez! I can't wait to see you post the Weathermodels map that counts all frozen as snow. You rarely see this much agreement in the long range.
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Is it safe to be excited again @packfan98
Ollie Williams said:
Weenie::Weenie
Through the end of the run, includes other systems.
View attachment 30317View attachment 30318
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Man y'all trying to pull me out of the cliff with all these beautiful maps weenie mode in me is about to get turned back on..
 
This is why you can’t follow the operational model runs.. people say don’t trust the ensembles but honestly both gefs and euro have continued to up the snow and ice and winter weather possibilities in the future .. this is more than noise to me this is a clear sign of something that’s coming if the euro holds strong with its ensemble members this afternoon then fook it LETS FIRE UP THE THREADDDDDDD ... okay maybe not a thread yet but goodness gracious if we keep this up we’re going to be needing a lot of threads in the near future
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
View attachment 30307

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

View attachment 30312



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
View attachment 30315
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The point of this post obviously is if we reach MJO phase 7 in week 2-3, I think we're going to crank out at least one, maybe 2 winter storm(s) in east-central NC w/ 80% of trips to MJO phase 7 in January producing wintry weather in NC during the 2000s & 2010s.

The upcoming pattern change is coming a few days quicker (~Jan 21) than I initially suspected (Jan 25-30) back in mid December, and I think the window for us to score a winter storm is pretty large this time (unlike in early January), encompassing roughly the last 10 days of January. (Jan 22-31)

Let's reel one in.
 
packfan98 said:
Wait and post again at the end. Half of the members have a major SE winter storm at hour 384. Geez! I can't wait to see you post the Weathermodels map that counts all frozen as snow. You rarely see this much agreement in the long range.
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It's truly a thing of beauty especially seeing a lot of storms start at D10. IF the GEFS is close to right, there would be a good stretch where we could see a perfect pattern for snow with extended cold. What excites me more is the 0Z EPS looks similar to the GEFS at the end, so if we get the 12Z suite in and they come close and there are some EPS members that look good, we're on a good path.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This is why you can’t follow the operational model runs.. people say don’t trust the ensembles but honestly both gefs and euro have continued to up the snow and ice and winter weather possibilities in the future .. this is more than noise to me this is a clear sign of something that’s coming if the euro holds strong with its ensemble members this afternoon then fook it LETS FIRE UP THE THREADDDDDDD ... okay maybe not a thread yet but goodness gracious if we keep this up we’re going to be needing a lot of threads in the near future
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Meh I've seen 100% of GEFS members give me 7+ inches of snow within 48 hours and been goose egged.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This is why you can’t follow the operational model runs.. people say don’t trust the ensembles but honestly both gefs and euro have continued to up the snow and ice and winter weather possibilities in the future .. this is more than noise to me this is a clear sign of something that’s coming if the euro holds strong with its ensemble members this afternoon then fook it LETS FIRE UP THE THREADDDDDDD ... okay maybe not a thread yet but goodness gracious if we keep this up we’re going to be needing a lot of threads in the near future
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Remember the setup last January, where the OP's were bad, but the EPS was still onboard, so we kept on going, unfortunately, the ensembles caved. Granted that was in short-range, this is 10 days out, so I'm going to give the Op's a pass at this range, and focus more on ensembles. I don't think we're close enough to follow the Euro, but we all know the GFS is trash.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Remember the setup last January, where the OP's were bad, but the EPS was still onboard, so we kept on going, unfortunately, the ensembles caved. Granted that was in short-range, this is 10 days out, so I'm going to give the Op's a pass at this range, and focus more on ensembles. I don't think we're close enough to follow the Euro, but we all know the GFS is trash.
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Yes I do understand all of this and agree that we must be cautious because we’ve been burned before .. but ensembles in general terms are suppose to warn you of a storm signal or pattern change happening in the future so maybe if we can block out all the hurt we’ve been feeling the past couple years maybe they are really trying to show us something here ... I think if we do end up getting a storm in this time period we can put a little more faith into modeling
 
WxWatch said:
I honestly would hate to say winter is over for good for the rest of this season. Is it over for now? Yes, imo it is, 60s and 70s for highs down my way (Northeast of ATL) through mid month. If the pattern doesn't change into a favorable colder pattern by mid February, winter would but cut short. As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February. Who knows how February is going to shape up at this point. I hate being sarcastic and negative and I'm normally not this way. But the fact is, soon as we get into January the pattern has to go into a train wreck and that's what gave me a "beating" this winter.

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This post clearly shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about (as usual). Declaring winter is over as you've prematurely done more than once here the last few weeks means there's absolutely no chance of it coming back and we immediately move onto spring, there's a big discrepancy between saying that and winter is taking a break. Seems pretty obvious here you don't understand the difference between the two.


"As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February"

This is based on what exactly? You're speaking in absolutes and already talking about specifics wrt who will get snow & who won't, roughly how intense those cold shots & storms will be for a mediocre pattern that probably won't verify a few weeks to a month from now. This is a good way to have egg on your face, as you've probably experienced several times this winter when you were making winter storm threat maps for a storm that was over a week away & don't be shocked if everyone laughs at you in a couple weeks for declaring winter was over last week.

You've overcorrected for your far too overzealous mannerism, you need to find the happy medium/middle ground and learn to not speak in absolutes or discuss ANY specifics in a pattern more than a week or two in advance as you've done here, let alone make winter storm maps for events that over 6-7 days away. That is just as bad as someone declaring winter is over or that we're going to have a "pants exploding" winter storm based on a singular 300+ hour operational model run.
 
Hopefully we can see more promising looks with the 12Z EPS. GEFS shows us heading into a favorable pattern here in the south east.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Here are the maps that include sleet. If you look in the bottom left corner, you will see the control. Just pretend that's the old opperational GFS. (It's not)
View attachment 30325View attachment 30333
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The GEFS is obviously really underdispserive and its LR pattern may still be wrong to some extent, but that's the largest 384 HR snow mean I've ever seen on the GEFS.

Specifics and model snowfall output aside, it's really hard to deny the low frequency signal for at least one storm in the last 10 days of January. This is right near our climatological peak for snow/ice in the Carolinas (late January-early Feb).
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the list of winter storms that have occurred in MJO phase 7 during January since 2000:

Some winters we got more than one storm.
Since 2000, 8 of 10 trips to RMM MJO phase 7 have produced a winter storm (at least a minor event) in east-central NC w/ 2009 & 2016 being the only duds. 2009 didn't miss by much (the president's day storm showed up in phase 8 instead) & in 2016 we were still hungover from the warmest December (& arguably the most anomalous month period) on record, which is a huge outlier and obviously not happening this year. On average, about 1 storm

January 2-3 2002
January 9 2004
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 17-18 2011
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 26-27 2015

Here's the composite hemispheric 500mb anomaly pattern for these events. Strong North Pac low undercutting a block in the far North Pacific (-EPO/-WPO) coupled w/ a +PNA is usually how we get the job done in MJO phase 7 during January.
View attachment 30307

Rather unsurprisingly, this is pretty close to the composite pattern during RMM Phase 7 in January:

View attachment 30312



It's also generally not that dissimilar from the GEFS & EPS forecasts. While I think the GEFS has a strong -EPO bias, a legit -EPO is likely going to verify here.

Hopefully, you didn't think winter was over.
View attachment 30315
View attachment 30314
Click to expand...

Lol. I tweeted earlier about the GEFS -EPO bias and EPS compared to Phase 7 composite. Jeez. On the same wavelengths sometimes!


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Arcc said:
That may be the craziest long range snow mean I've seen.
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I think one year I saw a larger one honestly. I think I saved it on my computer which I’ll check when I get home. The period ended up a dud too as no one got snow except the mountains I believe. Hopefully I find it and can post it
 
When comparing the vorticity (energy) on the 00z EPS and 12z GEFS, they seem very similar. Notice that energy in the SW, on the Euro it's a little faster, while the GEFS is slower, allowing more snowy members. Verbatim all the ingredients are together. 12z EPS will be interesting
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-9543200.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-vort500_z500-9543200.png
 
Chattownsnow said:
I think one year I saw a larger one honestly. I think I saved it on my computer which I’ll check when I get home. The period ended up a dud too as no one got snow except the mountains I believe. Hopefully I find it and can post it
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Found it in an old text! Did NC or anyone get anything during this period? If so than this time could be different if the mean I posted included a storm that actually happened in the short term and this mean includes that. 1578766614296.png
 
I think something did happen in that time period, but it was nowhere near that extent.

I think that ended up being the coastal SE event.

I'm cautiously optimistic right now, know good and well how much we've been burned recently, but I realistically just can't see it going "stay as warm" as it has been lately. There has to be a flip incoming, but that needs to be nailed down.
 
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