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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Here ya go
 

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Rain Cold said:
I like the Op GFS doing Op GFS things, even if it's hour 384.
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Appreciate the 384hr Op, especially from you. That's a solid look with the primary NH PV lobe pinched in to Hudson Bay, ridging in the Gulf of Alaska would likely retrograde NW based on a Beaufort Sea connection. As I am sure you know, this is single computer simulation, well outside of it's useful range, and still lacks maturation of algorithms and the hardware that runs it compared to foreign based on verification . I'd be eyeing continuity of ops around 168 to their Ens mean / hand-off for D7-10, particularly in Canada, anything after D10 is a crap shoot even with the means, especially during pattern changes. I do agree the odds of a sig pattern change with Winter finally arriving in the East are increasing after 1/20, likely MA and north initially, with SE in play after 1/26.
 
This is how I feel. Gfs op runs has been back n forth and gefs has been solid on wintry weather for the south. Couple years ago in December, I remember the gfs going crazy with the winter storm I received with different run to run solutions for a while and the gefs solid with consistency. Not saying I'm right here, but ive learned over the years when the gefs and the eps is honking hard and loud and consistent with wintry weather, then most likely it happens.
 
WeatherNC said:
Appreciate the 384hr Op, especially from you. That's a solid look with the primary NH PV lobe pinched in to Hudson Bay, ridging in the Gulf of Alaska would likely retrograde NW based on a Beaufort Sea connection. As I am sure you know, this is single computer simulation, well outside of it's useful range, and still lacks maturation of algorithms and the hardware that runs it compared to foreign based on verification . I'd be eyeing continuity of ops around 168 to their Ens mean / hand-off for D7-10, particularly in Canada, anything after D10 is a crap shoot even with the means, especially during pattern changes. I do agree the odds of a sig pattern change with Winter finally arriving in the East are increasing after 1/20, likely MA and north initially, with SE in play after 1/26.
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Completely agree on all points. I think there is a preponderance of evidence to support the idea that the pattern is changing to a more wintry one. I will feel better when the change moves much closer in and when the Ops and ensembles are in sync.
 
wow said:
Here it comes.. the first wave after the 50/50 is established that the ensembles have been harping on. The STJ is juiced up!

18z GFS

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Great to see you here man. Always enjoy your analysis!!!
 
Rain Cold said:
Completely agree on all points. I think there is a preponderance of evidence to support the idea that the pattern is changing to a more wintry one. I will feel better when the change moves much closer in and when the Ops and ensembles are in sync.
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It's coming Man, I'm confident enough to say Winter will arrive, albeit late, with a vengeance and a weenie ban hammer last week of Jan until at-least mid Feb. Regarding KU potential, less confident, 1/25 ish has some early ingredients, from what I am seeing MJO may be off the charts in to phase 7. If that happens with the main PV lobe in to Hudson Bay, coupled with our Min, it's game on for a mid or major KU.
 
Cindy131 said:
Growing up in Georgia, we definitely had a lot more ice storms in past decades then we do now. Of course that could change again. This decade could be a lot more different then 2010-2019
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The same can be said for the Charlotte area. It use to seem that we would see a major freezing rain event every 1-2 years, but the last freezing rain only event that I can remember with widespread 1/4 inch or greater in the metro area was 2005. There have been a few forecasted since then, but have usually ended up being predominantly sleet.
 
And it looks like things are starting to look up for a pattern change and more positive for winter weather. It doesn't surprise me at all since we are having a severe threat today, which is extreme for this time of year, and sometimes we need an extreme event to change things up and get the pattern going in a different direction.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS & EPS have generally trended towards the seasonally adjusted MJO analog composite (via Paul Roundy) w/ increasing -NAO being shown just after Jan 20th.

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This composite looks awesome well into early-mid February.

We can certainly hope this pattern change actually sticks this time. One thing to consider going forward is that +IOD forcing at this time of the year (unlike earlier in winter) is actually conducive for more frequent troughiness & cold in the E US during February & March due to seasonal changes in the E hem monsoon circulation & mid-latitude jet.
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My goodness gracious what a beautiful map!
 
wow said:
Thanks. I thinks it's been about 15 years since I was just a member on a weather board. :)
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I’m about half, but’s it’s refreshing, stress with verification in ones backyard coupled with moderating a diverse competing audience and at your level dev issues takes away from the enjoyment, at least from my view I don’t want to go back. I like to cook and eat but I don’t want to run a restaurant.
 
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Early look at this GFS run looks like some of the ensembles we've seen lately. There's a huge HP though, so if it doesn't head NE a little it wouldn't surprise me if it stayed suppressed and dissipated a bit.

Good though at this range.

Edit: And poof at 234 lol. Although I wasn't looking at other maps yet.
 
Interesting, the GFS looks similar how modeling looked prior to the December storm. The main difference was the lack of a ridge out west. If we can get that, this run would have gone boom.
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Ollie Williams said:
Wave gets too strung out. Ingredients are there, just needs a stronger wave to phase with the 50/50 low.


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If the shortwave over Texas is a little faster and/or the high pressure digs a little further southwest then look out! Definitely a look we can work with at this range.
 
We're really on to something there if the first wave isn't strung out. The storm that ends up emerging comes mainly from a different wave that crashes into California that's stronger and it absorbs it on the vort maps.

edit: and...ugh, could use other things...like a ridge for example. But maybe we can get that ridge because I've seen the western ridge/eastern trough start to emerge around then.
 
John1122 said:
Bone chilling cold, system goes poof, cold retreats out of Eastern U.S. Storm roars our way. Life in the South hoping for snow.
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Most of the time that's how it goes unfortunately, but sometimes we get lucky and "cash" in. Luckily the time window is still beyond 200 hours so expect to see many other scenarios. A winter storm is still in the pending status. At this point, it's still meh.

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NCSNOW said:
? We had 4 in 12 days in 2000
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We had 2 storms within 7-10 days a few years back. I will have to look up when as I remember transmission came out while plowing. We had to get it replaced quick as another one came.
 
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