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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Jan 21
 

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Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS & EPS have generally trended towards the seasonally adjusted MJO analog composite (via Paul Roundy) w/ increasing -NAO being shown just after Jan 20th.

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This composite looks awesome well into early-mid February.

We can certainly hope this pattern change actually sticks this time. One thing to consider going forward is that +IOD forcing at this time of the year (unlike earlier in winter) is actually conducive for more frequent troughiness & cold in the E US during February & March due to seasonal changes in the E hem monsoon circulation & mid-latitude jet.
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March cold is useless be honest though 90 percent time
 
SD said:
Ok let's unpack a few things here. #1 we all bust at some point when you make a forecast that's the reality of it, I busted hard thinking the pattern would change in early january, oops it didn't life goes on. #2 saying it's only going to snow in the mountains is a bold statement given the mjo and ensemble prediction. #3 winter isn't cut short we still have over 50% of our snow climo left and if you look at the period with the highest frequency of events we are just now approaching peak. #4 no one is saying stop posting but you did completely go from extreme A to extreme B and it really seemed more like bittercasting. #5 please remember we are all here for constructive discussion if we as staff feel like people are going outside of that we will take care of it. #6 building off of that if you want help with things just ask, no one knows it all but if you are unsure of something pose the question.

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Nice thoughts, and I agree. I don't want to stop posting as much as I like to make maps based from my predictions. Predictions can be right or wrong and sometimes predictions aren't based from nothing but opinions and thoughts. A prediction does not have to be created based what is shown on these models at face value. I dislike when others don't input their knowledge to the posters opinion. Instead they take over their opinion like they shouldn't be part of the weather community and saying, "you don't know what you're talking about." I did go from extreme to being cautious. Due to this, I thought there would be a winter storm in December, it seem liked my predictions were coming true during that time cause the Euro ended up showing the winter storm a week out and then poof it went. And then, as we're in January the pattern is crap and there's no guarantee that the pattern will favor cold and winter storms by late month. Is it looking possible? Sure it is.

The hoping/wishing sometimes gets tiring, cause most of the time things don't turn out as we hope it will. And then we see these fantasy snow maps and "winter storms" in the mid to long range that just teases us lol. It's like we're literally hanging on the "verge" waiting on that potential of cold and winter storms everytime. I'm just facing reality here and not going to sucked in.

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Webberweather53 said:
In early March, no. There's a legitimate reason why our snow climo in early March is generally better than Dec.
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I usually consider Meteorological winter (Dec 5th to March 5th) the prime period for winter storms. Of course we can get storms before of after these times but their occurrences are much rarer.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, while the mean it's dropped this run, just a bit the probabilities increased.
00z
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Good catch, this is generally something we'd like to see going forward. The previous mean was thus likely heavily skewed by a few overzealous members while this suite with a smaller mean has more members w/ snow in general. Minute details like this in snowfall output don't really matter too terribly much this far out, other than it reaffirms what we already know in that the last 10 days or so of January appear favorable to produce a winter storm.
 
WxWatch said:
The hoping/wishing sometimes gets tiring, cause most of the time things don't turn out as we hope it will.
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Well, prepare yourself to stay tired. We all spend most of our winters on here hoping and wishing and most of the time it never turns out unless you favor the non-winter type scenarios. But again, we do live in the friggin south.
 
Our ENSO base state is moving rapidly towards El Nino.

We've had a rapid succession of intense WWBs since early November and another one is coming in association w/ this big MJO event next week.

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As a result, the thermocline has been in a state of perpetual suppression over the central Pacific. We're quickly building up a ton of anomalous oceanic heat content and dislodging the warm pool eastward.

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Webberweather53 said:
Our ENSO base state is moving rapidly towards El Nino.

We've had a rapid succession of intense WWBs since early November and another one is coming in association w/ this big MJO event next week.

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As a result, the thermocline has been in a state of perpetual suppression over the central Pacific. We're quickly building up a ton of anomalous oceanic heat content and dislodging the warm pool eastward.

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How does this translate to say our weather in the next couple months?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
How does this translate to say our weather in the next couple months?
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This means the strong subtropical jet we've seen for most of this fall & winter thus far isn't going anywhere anytime soon and may become more intense if anything as we get later in the winter & into spring. Entering the spring predictability barrier with an ongoing weak-moderate El Nino has ramifications for the rest of 2020 and perhaps the winter of 2020-21 too.
 
Here it comes.. the first wave after the 50/50 is established that the ensembles have been harping on. The STJ is juiced up!

18z GFS

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DixieBlizzard said:
Well, prepare yourself to stay tired. We all spend most of our winters on here hoping and wishing and most of the time it never turns out unless you favor the non-winter type scenarios. But again, we do live in the friggin south.
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But these are not the winters many of us grew up with. We used to get a couple of 2-4 inch events most winters, and a crappy winter was one 1-2 inch event.
 
Looks like it may be too warm in the SE when the system approaches on this run of the GFS. That hasn't been the case on the ensembles so far. There's also another system behind it...
 
Obvious large scale changes in the new operational model of the GFS .. steps in the right direction as far as I’m concerned
 
The skill level of the GFS must be pretty low after 5 days. I know the pattern change is causing the chaos but it can’t put together 2 runs that are consistent. I’m calling for a new AI model!
 
cd2play said:
But these are not the winters many of us grew up with. We used to get a couple of 2-4 inch events most winters, and a crappy winter was one 1-2 inch event.
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I'm 52 and don't remember it that way but was raised in the Birmingham metro. Now the early 80's i seem to recall were pretty epic. The 70's? Hit or miss. Nashville did seem to get more snow back in the day tho.
 
Storm5 said:
Hot mess express . Of course it’s way out so it’s irrelevant. Just shows how touchy the runs are going to be over the next 7-10
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Though the juiced up STJ isn’t an unreasonable solution. Three dissimilar runs except for the fact that they aren’t that cold.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
FWIW: The 18z GEFS ensembles are showing more suppression than 12z which is good at this stage. Also, places along I-20 south Snow Mean stayed the same or increased.
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I don't think it's suppression, It's too much interaction with the northern stream. We need that energy to stay in the SW,
12z
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18z
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