If we want to not torch we need this pattern to change. I can’t believe this but the
LAST time a DJF month had a negative NAO average was February 2013... and it was barely negative. You have to reach ALL the way back to 09-10 and 10-11 to find the first winters with solid -nao. That’s nearly a decade ago.
We all know there are so many moving pieces to our winters but there is no way this is not atleast one of the glaring problems as far as getting cold into the SE over the last decade.
View attachment 49099
BTW here is the temps for 09-10, 10-11 and then the rest of the decade.
Again I understand there are so many other pieces but still.
View attachment 49101View attachment 49102
look familiar?
View attachment 49104View attachment 49105
I love this thesis examining snowfall of the southern Appalachian mountains. Lots of deep reading but the bottom has pictures! Lol
Click Here for Paper
here is a screenshot of the breakdown of snowfall across the regions of the southern mountains. Hard to see but all you need to know is red is -nao. Blue is +nao. You can see most regions average double the snowfall in -nao regardless of enso state.
For me, step one is seeing a -nao period longer than a week.
View attachment 49100