cd2play
Member
I think that's the year Nashville was supposed to get a major snow event in early February, only for the temperature to sit at 34 and rain ALL NIGHT! I literally cried
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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
avlsnow
Member
Asheville got 1.4 inches total. Less than last winter... Hopefully this won’t repeat
Worst winter ever please never mention it again
LickWx
Member
ATL had their earliest major ZR on record in mid Dec. of 2005.
I was just looking at Octobers with a -NAO to see what that may portend for DJF NAO. Since 1950, there were 36 -NAO Octs out of 70 total. Out of these 36, only 1/3 (12) had a DJF averaging a -NAO. The last 4 Octs with a -NAO all had a +NAO for DJF. Then again, only 21 of all 70 DJF's had a -NAO. So, out of 34 +NAO Octs, only 9 had a -NAO.
Conclusion: A -NAO in October has essentially no predictability about the following DJF's NAO.
**Corrected
Conclusion: A -NAO in October has essentially no predictability about the following DJF's NAO.
**Corrected
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This is how a winter storm will work this winter in my dreams 
Fountainguy97
Member
I appreciate you keeping the precip shield JUST west of the TN/NC state line to catch me in the actionmodernweeniemodernweenie
LickWx
Member
I was actually 5 and a half thank you.. I was living in an area east of Charlotte at the time. Not far from Harrisburg and Concord. I also very much remember those times including the big snowstorm in Charlotte of Feb 2004 was it?
Here is a beautiful recap of the winter of 2005-2006 in Raleigh! Winter of 2005-2006 recap. The recap of the winter of 2005-2006.
Winter Recap RDU 2005-2006
Snowfall 2005-2006- 0.0 ( well T but whatever)
Lowest Temp Winter of 2005-2006 -20
Highest Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 74
Mean Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 44
Cold Rain Winter 2005-2006- 7.96
End of Recap of Winter of 2005-2006. Thank You! You cant mess with me @SD!
RollTide18
Member
My prediction for winter:
There will be warm spells
There will be cold spells
The Wambulance Thread will be active
There will be a huge boardwide storm which will make everyone happy, until we torch in mid February and winter dies a painful death
There will be warm spells
There will be cold spells
The Wambulance Thread will be active
There will be a huge boardwide storm which will make everyone happy, until we torch in mid February and winter dies a painful death
CLT had an ice storm in mid December and then just some flurries in early February... no measurable snow. That ice storm in December I believe is the last time that CLT had a major ZR event... the city has lucked out by getting a lot of sleet the last few ice storms.
accu35
Member
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Your still young when lot of us our parents and grandparents.
Mr. Golf
Member
Hi Webber. I got one question. Is this pattern due to mjo being the colder phases for this time of year or does that not matter?
That kind of looks like how the 2017 storm was supposed to go. Then the Nam showed a warm nose, and you know the rest.
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Here's the latest UKMET, ECMWF seasonal blend.
Monthly:
I'd be upset at first, but keep in mind that the last 2 years were above normal. Plus seasonal models are garbage.
Monthly:
I'd be upset at first, but keep in mind that the last 2 years were above normal. Plus seasonal models are garbage.
They are both interesting for Jan and have above normal anomalies in the region with the euros being near the gulf coast. I'd like to see the 500mb monthly anomaliesHere's the latest UKMET, ECMWF seasonal blend.
Monthly:
View attachment 49345
I'd be upset at first, but keep in mind that the last 2 years were above normal. Plus seasonal models are garbage.
Fountainguy97
Member
yeah both models have a month that would be some good winter down here.
This mirrors a lot of my thinking and a lot of our analogs as well. A good chance of a solid 3-5 week period of good winter with BN temps.
Until we cool off the W. pac and get a longer MJO phase that is cold for us or a solid long -NAO we will struggle to string together a larger period than that of BN temps or even multiple periods like that in a single winter. NAO hasn’t averaged negative in winter for 7 years. No reason to bet against it being + again this year. BUT it has to change eventually right?
I am happy at our position heading into October. We will inevitably miss out on storms cutting into the interior US from La Niña but I’m pretty sure of a good 3-4 week period of heavy winter. Maybe more if the -nao ever decides to come negative for a whole month. I was in high school the last time we had a -nao month
I’m now a college graduate. I’ve been married for 2 years. And I’m a home owner as of this June lol.Tarheelwx
Member
Well, this September was a dramatic difference from last September. Super hot last year vs. cooler than average this year. Hoping that's a good sign.
TW
TW
Honestly I'll be somewhat intrigued if we get a warm November. The past two years have had well below normal Novembers to be followed by a torch DJF period...