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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Myfrotho704_ said:
Certainly like seeing that consistent Scandinavian ridging, can it last though
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Not entirely sure it'll last through the winter but it's encouraging to see it's persistence as we start to roll deeper into the cold season. In the short term I am interested to see how Teddy will impact the downstream pattern and what evolves in early to mid October. I could see us taking a shot at a -AO/NAO couplet
 
SD said:
Not entirely sure it'll last through the winter but it's encouraging to see it's persistence as we start to roll deeper into the cold season. In the short term I am interested to see how Teddy will impact the downstream pattern and what evolves in early to mid October. I could see us taking a shot at a -AO/NAO couplet
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I've wondered when does blocking start to affect the weather in the SE. I've read (somewhere) blocking doesn't help cool the SE in the summer. So at what point does it (now, mid Oct. , mid Nov)? Maybe after the SE ridge is beating down....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Maybe as early as next week
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Maybe, not out of the question to get a high elevation snow this early in the season.

I've always waited to start looking at the indices (hoping for +PNA, -AO, -NAO, -EPO) until late November; basically when we actually have a chance to get a winter storm.
 
FallsLake said:
Maybe, not out of the question to get a high elevation snow this early in the season.

I've always waited to start looking at the indices (hoping for +PNA, -AO, -NAO, -EPO) until late November; basically when we actually have a chance to get a winter storm.
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It's related to wavelengths, I believe. Looking at the upcoming ridge/trough couplet for next week, it looks a lot more like a mid-winter pattern.
 
FallsLake said:
I've wondered when does blocking start to affect the weather in the SE. I've read (somewhere) blocking doesn't help cool the SE in the summer. So at what point does it (now, mid Oct. , mid Nov)? Maybe after the SE ridge is beating down....
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Rain Cold said:
It's related to wavelengths, I believe. Looking at the upcoming ridge/trough couplet for next week, it looks a lot more like a mid-winter pattern.
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What rain cold said. In general though the 2nd half of June/July/1st half of August are to me when blocking really doesn't do a lot. Once the westerlies start to move south in the 2nd half of August but especially into September it starts to show up again.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
If we want to not torch we need this pattern to change. I can’t believe this but the LAST time a DJF month had a negative NAO average was February 2013... and it was barely negative. You have to reach ALL the way back to 09-10 and 10-11 to find the first winters with solid -nao. That’s nearly a decade ago.

We all know there are so many moving pieces to our winters but there is no way this is not atleast one of the glaring problems as far as getting cold into the SE over the last decade.

View attachment 49099

BTW here is the temps for 09-10, 10-11 and then the rest of the decade.
Again I understand there are so many other pieces but still.

View attachment 49101View attachment 49102

look familiar?

View attachment 49104View attachment 49105

I love this thesis examining snowfall of the southern Appalachian mountains. Lots of deep reading but the bottom has pictures! Lol

Click Here for Paper

here is a screenshot of the breakdown of snowfall across the regions of the southern mountains. Hard to see but all you need to know is red is -nao. Blue is +nao. You can see most regions average double the snowfall in -nao regardless of enso state.

For me, step one is seeing a -nao period longer than a week.

View attachment 49100
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bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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I like severe man, and it’s more common in torches, but I think we all need snow for a change, don’t worry next spring should be quite active, I expect it to be one of the most active severe seasons in years
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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Bruce, with my limited knowledge, usually kelvin waves warm the eastern Pacific, which limits laniña development. I know you don't like winter, but most on here do.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Bruce, with my limited knowledge, usually kelvin waves warm the eastern Pacific, which limits laniña development. I know you don't like winter, but most on here do.
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now I don't know who to root for, Bruce or Kelvin.. /)
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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Guess what? You’re in the overwhelming minority here.

As far as Kelvin waves go, it depends on if it is a downwelling phase or an upwelling phase. As tropical winds travel east to west, they pile up the warm water. When the winds begin to ease up, the warm water on the surface piles up. This warm water has downward push on the thermocline as the wave travels eastward and it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often warm the surface temperatures and could be the beginnings of an El Niño.

After the downwelling portion of the wave passes we will sometimes get an upwelling where the colder water at depth comes toward the surface and the thermocline rises instead of sinking. We often will see below average temperatures near or at the surface.

So your point in regards to a Kelvin wave is dependent upon the phase it is in.
 
Really encouraging sign for the upcoming winter to see a ginormous Scandinavian block like this in October. One thing we failed to do last winter was attack the stratospheric polar vortex early & often and it costed us dearly later on, hopefully if this pattern persists & grows we can reverse our fortunes this time around.

1600892321831.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really encouraging sign for the upcoming winter to see a ginormous Scandinavian block like this in October. One thing we failed to do last winter was attack the stratospheric polar vortex early & often and it costed us dearly later on, hopefully if this pattern persists & grows we can reverse our fortunes this time around.

View attachment 49237
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Yeah I was just talking to some freinds in the C us about that earlier, very nice to see that persistent block
 
Cadi40 said:
This years Hurricane Season was a record breaker, Hopefully this Winter Season follows suit.
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Pretty sure 2005-06 was a dud for most of the southeast. I know RDU got blanked that winter, how did other areas like GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL do?
 
CyclonicFury said:
Pretty sure 2005-06 was a dud for most of the southeast. I know RDU got blanked that winter, how did other areas like GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL do?
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I think that's the year Nashville was supposed to get a major snow event in early February, only for the temperature to sit at 34 and rain ALL NIGHT! I literally cried
 
I was just looking at Octobers with a -NAO to see what that may portend for DJF NAO. Since 1950, there were 36 -NAO Octs out of 70 total. Out of these 36, only 1/3 (12) had a DJF averaging a -NAO. The last 4 Octs with a -NAO all had a +NAO for DJF. Then again, only 21 of all 70 DJF's had a -NAO. So, out of 34 +NAO Octs, only 9 had a -NAO.

Conclusion: A -NAO in October has essentially no predictability about the following DJF's NAO.

**Corrected
 
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SD said:
@Lickwx
What were you like 2 in 05-06?
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I was actually 5 and a half thank you.. I was living in an area east of Charlotte at the time. Not far from Harrisburg and Concord. I also very much remember those times including the big snowstorm in Charlotte of Feb 2004 was it?

Here is a beautiful recap of the winter of 2005-2006 in Raleigh! Winter of 2005-2006 recap. The recap of the winter of 2005-2006.


Winter Recap RDU 2005-2006

Snowfall 2005-2006- 0.0 ( well T but whatever)

Lowest Temp Winter of 2005-2006 -20

Highest Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 74

Mean Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 44

Cold Rain Winter 2005-2006- 7.96

End of Recap of Winter of 2005-2006. Thank You! You cant mess with me @SD!
 
CyclonicFury said:
Pretty sure 2005-06 was a dud for most of the southeast. I know RDU got blanked that winter, how did other areas like GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL do?
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CLT had an ice storm in mid December and then just some flurries in early February... no measurable snow. That ice storm in December I believe is the last time that CLT had a major ZR event... the city has lucked out by getting a lot of sleet the last few ice storms.
 
Lickwx said:
I was actually 5 and a half thank you.. I was living in an area east of Charlotte at the time. Not far from Harrisburg and Concord. I also very much remember those times including the big snowstorm in Charlotte of Feb 2004 was it?

Here is a beautiful recap of the winter of 2005-2006 in Raleigh! Winter of 2005-2006 recap. The recap of the winter of 2005-2006.


Winter Recap RDU 2005-2006

Snowfall 2005-2006- 0.0 ( well T but whatever)

Lowest Temp Winter of 2005-2006 -20

Highest Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 74

Mean Temp Winter of 2005-2006- 44

Cold Rain Winter 2005-2006- 7.96

End of Recap of Winter of 2005-2006. Thank You! You cant mess with me @SD!
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Your still young when lot of us our parents and grandparents.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really encouraging sign for the upcoming winter to see a ginormous Scandinavian block like this in October. One thing we failed to do last winter was attack the stratospheric polar vortex early & often and it costed us dearly later on, hopefully if this pattern persists & grows we can reverse our fortunes this time around.

View attachment 49237
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Hi Webber. I got one question. Is this pattern due to mjo being the colder phases for this time of year or does that not matter?
 
Here's the latest UKMET, ECMWF seasonal blend.
Monthly:
www.bennollweather.com

BenNollWeather

UKMET long-range snowfall anomaly maps.
www.bennollweather.com www.bennollweather.com
www.bennollweather.com

BenNollWeather

ECMWF long-range snowfall anomaly maps.
www.bennollweather.com www.bennollweather.com
EiweAkeU8AEXYou.jpg
I'd be upset at first, but keep in mind that the last 2 years were above normal. Plus seasonal models are garbage.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Here's the latest UKMET, ECMWF seasonal blend.
Monthly:
www.bennollweather.com

BenNollWeather

UKMET long-range snowfall anomaly maps.
www.bennollweather.com www.bennollweather.com
www.bennollweather.com

BenNollWeather

ECMWF long-range snowfall anomaly maps.
www.bennollweather.com www.bennollweather.com
View attachment 49345
I'd be upset at first, but keep in mind that the last 2 years were above normal. Plus seasonal models are garbage.
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They are both interesting for Jan and have above normal anomalies in the region with the euros being near the gulf coast. I'd like to see the 500mb monthly anomalies
 
SD said:
They are both interesting for Jan and have above normal anomalies in the region with the euros being near the gulf coast. I'd like to see the 500mb monthly anomalies
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yeah both models have a month that would be some good winter down here.

This mirrors a lot of my thinking and a lot of our analogs as well. A good chance of a solid 3-5 week period of good winter with BN temps.

Until we cool off the W. pac and get a longer MJO phase that is cold for us or a solid long -NAO we will struggle to string together a larger period than that of BN temps or even multiple periods like that in a single winter. NAO hasn’t averaged negative in winter for 7 years. No reason to bet against it being + again this year. BUT it has to change eventually right?

I am happy at our position heading into October. We will inevitably miss out on storms cutting into the interior US from La Niña but I’m pretty sure of a good 3-4 week period of heavy winter. Maybe more if the -nao ever decides to come negative for a whole month. I was in high school the last time we had a -nao month:oops: I’m now a college graduate. I’ve been married for 2 years. And I’m a home owner as of this June lol.
 
Tarheelwx said:
Well, this September was a dramatic difference from last September. Super hot last year vs. cooler than average this year. Hoping that's a good sign.
TW
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Honestly I'll be somewhat intrigued if we get a warm November. The past two years have had well below normal Novembers to be followed by a torch DJF period...
 
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