Cadi40
Member
Ha! Pardon my mistake however I will take full credit for that name!
Actually, you should start it in a week or so ... It's so appropriate ...Ha! Pardon my mistake however I will take full credit for that name!
The 0Z GEFS is an amazing thing to see considering we're now into the heart of the hurricane season. Per my provider's output, I couldn't find even one TC of 1002 mb or stronger in the entire Atlantic basin through the entire 16 day run!! I had to look at it several times to make sure I wasn't imagining that. I mean it is pretty rare to see a run like that just about anytime during June-Oct much less during the peak! There are 20+ members.
Edit: Are we going to have the first August since 1997 and only the 3rd August during the satellite era with no TC geneses? I'd think the odds would still be against it as models miss geneses, perhaps especially homegrown, and every 8/21-31 since 2001 has had at least one, but the odds are steadily increasing.
Anyone check the Euro
I still find it hard to believe but it would be something. I'm still weary because I remember the last couple years things just suddenly got crazy soon after August 20th(Harvey's shocking rebirth that led to history and the beginnings of Florence)(granted August wasn't so dead before then but still, it just seems things can flip on a dime and it doesn't have to show up 300 hours out, I remember Harvey just showing up as a major out of nowhere about 5 days out and it was dead at the time)
and especially given its not like we're in some big time el nino either its really baffling to me how widely unfavorable its been
I really do believe the switch will flip by early September though, if it doesn't I'll join the season cancel crowd lol
I still find it hard to believe but it would be something. I'm still weary because I remember the last couple years things just suddenly got crazy soon after August 20th(Harvey's shocking rebirth that led to history and the beginnings of Florence)(granted August wasn't so dead before then but still, it just seems things can flip on a dime and it doesn't have to show up 300 hours out, I remember Harvey just showing up as a major out of nowhere about 5 days out and it was dead at the time)
and especially given its not like we're in some big time el nino either its really baffling to me how widely unfavorable its been
I really do believe the switch will flip by early September though, if it doesn't I'll join the season cancel crowd lol
Possible, but I'm starting to lean towards Larry's analysis.Nah I think we’ll squeak by with something at the very end of the month.
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Remember the good ole days, when models showed 49 winter storms , and we got none!? Don’t trust the models!The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.