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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Joined
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Raleigh, NC
#1
With winter pretty much over, hurricane season will be starting in just over two months.

Right now it looks like the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will most likely be below average due to El Niño most likely to persist through 2019. I expect Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk to predict below average activity when they release their forecasts next week. I know CSU's comes out on April 4, which is next Thursday.
 

ForsythSnow

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#2
I am also expecting a quieter year as well. My guess is that we will run between 10 and 13 tropical storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. I'm going to guess that we get 1 hurricane landfall and 2 to 3 tropical storm or depression landfalls this year with all the majors being OTS recurves.
 

BirdManDoomW

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#4
I think some tropical systems will help ease a future drought that is likely to be well established over the south east by September. Also think an early system will be a US threat before July. Only takes one so who knows how bad this year will be. I’m thinking at least average storm count.
 
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#5
One key to watch will be the evolution of our Nino. Does it hold steady, strengthen, or weaken to a neutral state as we approach hurricane season? Right now the Atlantic SST's are a little cooler than normal in the MDR and much warmer than usual for the western and northern Atlantic.

1554233199609.png
 
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#7
A couple more forecasts have been released:
TSR 12/5/2 81 ACE
NCSU 13-16/5-7/2-3

It's starting to look like the El Niño might not be as strong as originally predicted, and the Atlantic MDR looks likely to warm over the next few weeks. Subsurface heat in the equatorial Pacific has diminished and a strong trade burst is currently ongoing. If these trends continue, the season may be more active than originally predicted.
 
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#8
Here is a gif of a couple 5 day averages I have saved.

Impressive upwelling kelvin wave has really hurt niño and now an impressive cold pool is lurking.

The MJO is forecast to pass across the Pac and into South America over the month of May which should help re-establish the niño. The question is how much rebuilding does it do?? This is a very large cold pool now and one that could easily end this niño if the right forcing occurs.

It will come down to this downwelling wave in May and how much it can rebuild the niño.

I would be wary of calling for likely El Niño during the tropic season. We could easily end up in neutral territory.

5E8CCB38-57F9-47E2-A2F3-36AC2BB97FAB.gif

Here is the CPC map. Shows the major changes going on.

11EAE1BD-FA86-4027-B4EB-EFE111F940BA.gif

3.4 region has cooled off a lot recently. Right now we are barely hanging on to a .5-.6 niño right now. AC0BC2FC-9170-4A80-A1E7-6220093839B5.jpeg
 
Last edited:

GaWx

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#11
Well well well what do we have here?

View attachment 19378
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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#13
It's only fitting to start the month of May with a tropical disturbance being monitored by NHC. Not much model support at the moment, though.
 
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#15
They really should start the season in May like the EPAC we've had several May storms lately
I agree, starting the season on May 15 may be a good idea. We've had 8 TCs/STCs in May the last 12 years. Although we haven't had any hurricane strength storms, I think the Atlantic season should begin on May 15 because of all the tropical storms we've had affecting the US in May recently.

This particular system has a tough road to genesis, though. Will be surprised if it earns a name due to land interaction, marginal SSTs, shear and dry air.
 

Sleet City USA

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#17
Up to 10% fwiw
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves northwestward,
and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast
United States coast during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula during the next
day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 10 AM EDT Friday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 

metwannabe

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#18
Up to 10% fwiw
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves northwestward,
and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast
United States coast during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to merge with a frontal system later this weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula during the next
day or so. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 10 AM EDT Friday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Actually it was at 20% and is down to 10% in the 5 day outlook..... has no model support and appears land interaction and then absorption by the incoming front will prevent any development.
 
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#19
So long...onto the next one.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041208
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located offshore of
the coast the Carolinas is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical
cyclone development and this system is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system off the United States
east coast by Sunday night. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook
issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan
 

pcbjr

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#20
So long...onto the next one.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041208
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located offshore of
the coast the Carolinas is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical
cyclone development and this system is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system off the United States
east coast by Sunday night. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook
issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan
:);):cool::p
 
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