FV has that as a Cat 1 with ~80mph winds... now the question is, does it hold it till about 150 hours out and then disappear like it did with winter storms??? LOL, trash model
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
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- tropical
Brent
Member
its probably stronger than that given the IR look
and this model is replacing the GFS?
BufordWX
Member
Fv3 just stop.
FV3 is just going crazy today.
Brent
Member
You thought that was crazy?
it would appear the gfs twins both have a tropical system of some form going up the west coast of the FL peninsula and hitting the eastern panhandle
The 12Z GEFS is still another GEFS run with a TC threat to FL near days 15-16 fwiw, which may not be much. Keep in mind that the GEFS members tend to clump up with similar solutions in a way that often overstates the real chance.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Kind of like with winter storms!?
I could use a track like that, to bring my soil moisture back up! I hope it’s close to right, weak ts, pump the SE flow and bring me the goods! I hope it’s better with tropical features, than winter storms, but probably not!
I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.
The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.
Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.
The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.
Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.
At the end of the GFS run, it has a 990 mb hurricane about to hit Florida.
This doesn’t look good.
Brent
Member
I'm starting to see a lot more hype for the season than the original ideas too
Its gonna be interesting to see what deeper into the season brings, the last few years didn't go until well into late August
Its gonna be interesting to see what deeper into the season brings, the last few years didn't go until well into late August
Good, I’m all for the hype if all it means we finally get back to a string of overhyped seasons. I think the @Brick Tamland rule applies here. We’re due for a break at least in the western part of the basin. Give me the hype as opposed to the storms.
NCSNOW
Member
Just hope and pray some early season western GOM gyro, even TS doesnt get going this year. The flooding coming down the Mississippi has been going on now for months. Potential for big time trouble and all it would take is a td or ts between now and July.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
Hmmm
BufordWX
Member
Canadian is on its own with this idea, but it shows this system bringing much needed rainfall to parts of the southeast near the end of next week.
I am all for this solution since we badly need rainfall here.
I am all for this solution since we badly need rainfall here.
Brent
Member
We have 91L just as the season will officially begin
Brent
Member
Hmmm
Not looking good.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Nearly basin-wide low shear anomalies? Looks like a good setup for lots of long-track hurricanes unfortunately.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The West African Monsoon (WAM) has been on fire thus far going into the summer which isn't good news for those hoping for an inactive season. Dr. Gray at CSU noted that even during years where activity was supposed to be low, the WAM would usually be a determining factor in either guiding a season towards steep inactivity or near to slightly above normal activity even when most everything else was unfavorable. I think we're probably headed somewhere in the direction of a blend of last year and 2017 in terms of total activity which would yield a solidly above average season, as for landfall prospects on the US, that remains uncertain but the lack of a huge +AMO in the basin and cool-near average SSTAs in the MDR is large-scale configuration that isn't conducive to rapid recurvatures into the open
Atlantic.
Atlantic.
91L looks to washout over the South-East regardless if it hits Mexico and goes into Texas. Pattern supports whatever is leftover to head our way eventually. Rain is likely the biggest concern but some weak tropical spin ups are possible. GFS also brings a hurricane near Oak Island NC but that’s likely hogwash.
I’ve always felt Recurvatures are a silly thing to predict well in advance. No one knows if the storm will exit Africa too far north or south yet alone all the other variables crossing the Atlantic.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A cooler tropical Atlantic like we have this year favors weaker, slower developing tropical cyclones, which by virtue of having a weaker beta effect (which draws them poleward) gain more longitude which means they pose a greater risk of hitting something further west in the Atlantic basin. During El Nino seasons, the westerlies are deeper/more extensive over the western hemisphere as anomalous convection over the equatorial Pacific deposits excess momentum in the westerly jet. In addition to stronger deep layer vertical shear, we also tend to see an unfavorable large-scale steering pattern accompany El Nino hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, this year ENSO is virtually neutral or lukewarm w/ a slight lean towards +ENSO. Furthermore, the negative atlantic tripole that's persisted most of the winter (as it has the last several years following winter +NAOs) strengthens the Azores-Bermuda high via thermal damping. When you raise the SSTAs in the subtropics, this causes subsequent height rises there too, strengthening the easterly trades (obviously less favorable for TCG & intensification), but also making earlier recurvatures into the open Atlantic less favored. People will find particular extreme examples to try & invalidate these physical mechanism(s) playing their hand in forcing the steering pattern during the summer, but the reality is akin to a baseball player taking steroids, while it's hard to know if that will result in more home runs in one particular game, these factors influence the probability distribution function or chances of a hit in any particular season. Likewise, over a longer period of record w/ more samples, steroid use relative to no steroids at all will raise the chances of home runs and big home run games. Going into this season, a majority of parameters are playing their hand in influencing the PDF of hurricane landfalls on landmasses further west in Atlantic, including the US and they're generally pushing that probability distribution towards a higher risk of landfalls. That's all we can really say about it at this juncture but there's legitimate science behind my previous statements & I fully stand behind them.
pcbjr
Member
Bottom line ... as always ... watch the "ef" out ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I tweeted about this earlier this afternoon and the discussion that was spurred from it as well as the cited literature is definitely worth a read.
Some model support for a system to develop in the Pacific, sometimes Atlantic will follow rather quickly.
Interesting tidbit from JB this morning:
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
3h
Dont look now,but since May 5 this may be one of the quietest periods on record for tropical activity globally, Cyclone west of India has died and its all quiet again globally WPAC has not had a storm since Mar 1 EPAC has not had a June with no TD'sTC's since at least 1996”
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
3h
Dont look now,but since May 5 this may be one of the quietest periods on record for tropical activity globally, Cyclone west of India has died and its all quiet again globally WPAC has not had a storm since Mar 1 EPAC has not had a June with no TD'sTC's since at least 1996”
Brent
Member
finally a storm in the EPAC
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Crazy how it took this long for a storm out there. I wonder why it's so quiet out there.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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El Niño is dying a quick death! When El Niño is in full throttle, they just get storm after storm
Brent
Member
I believe some of the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic(not that its that unusual in early season here) spread over there
the WPAC has been unusually quiet too and their season is basically year round
SSTs are boiling in the GOM rn, wind shear and lots of SAL around the MDR is preventing anything atm, but man if wind shear/SAL would go away, those water temps are supportive of a cane, a strong one at that, but ofc when there actually is one there’s other factors, but man there’s many areas along the Florida coast (gulf side) seeing 90+ water temps, which is a little unusual, don’t like that at all 
Brent
Member
looks like the show will heat up on the EPAC side, the next name is Barbara and it looks like it could be a long tracker towards Hawaii in the long range
I suspect we won't have to wait too long into July to see the Atlantic start to show signs of something. Like said above the basin is on fire
I suspect we won't have to wait too long into July to see the Atlantic start to show signs of something. Like said above the basin is on fire
pcbjr
Member
Just pray for dust ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This isn't necessarily for the Atlantic but I guess since this could implicate the US, it counts...
Tropical Storm Barbara formed in the East Pacific earlier today around 110W, the few tropical cyclones that eventually go onto threaten the Hawaiian Islands form in the monsoon trough around 110-120W, where Barbara currently is located.
The latest EPS suite has a pretty decent handle on the long-term track of Barbara and more so than the GEFS/GFS imo.
If Hawaii is to be threatened it wouldn't be until the 2nd week of July.
Definitely something worth tracking while most of us wait for our next legit chances for storms and the Atlantic hurricane season to pick up.
Tropical Storm Barbara formed in the East Pacific earlier today around 110W, the few tropical cyclones that eventually go onto threaten the Hawaiian Islands form in the monsoon trough around 110-120W, where Barbara currently is located.
The latest EPS suite has a pretty decent handle on the long-term track of Barbara and more so than the GEFS/GFS imo.
If Hawaii is to be threatened it wouldn't be until the 2nd week of July.
Definitely something worth tracking while most of us wait for our next legit chances for storms and the Atlantic hurricane season to pick up.