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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

FV has that as a Cat 1 with ~80mph winds... now the question is, does it hold it till about 150 hours out and then disappear like it did with winter storms??? LOL, trash model
 
FV has that as a Cat 1 with ~80mph winds... now the question is, does it hold it till about 150 hours out and then disappear like it did with winter storms??? LOL, trash model

its probably stronger than that given the IR look :D

and this model is replacing the GFS?
 
it would appear the gfs twins both have a tropical system of some form going up the west coast of the FL peninsula and hitting the eastern panhandle
 
The 12Z GEFS is still another GEFS run with a TC threat to FL near days 15-16 fwiw, which may not be much. Keep in mind that the GEFS members tend to clump up with similar solutions in a way that often overstates the real chance.
 
The 12Z GEFS is still another GEFS run with a TC threat to FL near days 15-16 fwiw, which may not be much. Keep in mind that the GEFS members tend to clump up with similar solutions in a way that often overstates the real chance.
Kind of like with winter storms!?
I could use a track like that, to bring my soil moisture back up! I hope it’s close to right, weak ts, pump the SE flow and bring me the goods! I hope it’s better with tropical features, than winter storms, but probably not!
 
I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.

The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.

Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.
 
At the end of the GFS run, it has a 990 mb hurricane about to hit Florida.
 
96eyq0.jpg

This doesn’t look good.
 
I'm starting to see a lot more hype for the season than the original ideas too

Its gonna be interesting to see what deeper into the season brings, the last few years didn't go until well into late August
 
I'm starting to see a lot more hype for the season than the original ideas too

Good, I’m all for the hype if all it means we finally get back to a string of overhyped seasons. I think the @Brick Tamland rule applies here. We’re due for a break at least in the western part of the basin. Give me the hype as opposed to the storms.
 
Just hope and pray some early season western GOM gyro, even TS doesnt get going this year. The flooding coming down the Mississippi has been going on now for months. Potential for big time trouble and all it would take is a td or ts between now and July.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311820
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky
 
Canadian is on its own with this idea, but it shows this system bringing much needed rainfall to parts of the southeast near the end of next week.
F28C8E6B-D389-4C13-8CEA-6C450F530651.gif
I am all for this solution since we badly need rainfall here.
 
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