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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the 12z Euro is a direct hit on the Big Island

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gonna be interesting to watch since the Atlantic is closed for now, I will be curious to see how close it is and how strong it is but it is a long way off

as much as the Atlantic has been busy the last few years, there's been a lot of Hawaii threats as well, most recently Lane last year which looked like a significant threat but weakened rapidly at the last minute
 
Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.

Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.

This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.

Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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Fountainguy97 said:
Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.

Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.

This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.

Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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Notice the WAM, that could lead to an active MDR season especially with BN SST's that could lead to slower development and higher land threat chances.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.

Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.

This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.

Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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It will be interesting to see if this VI remains well below normal. As the chart shows, it has been that way all year and, if anything, it is going down even more in relation to normal. Based on the trend is your friend and past years showing a partial correlation to later in the year, I feel one should lean on the relatively inactive side for the tropical Atlantic this year. JB may actually be onto something.
Consistent with this, the SOI has been solidly negative despite SST's falling out of Nino territory for now. A -SOI has a pretty nice correlation with lower than normal activity in the trop ATL. Let's see if the predominantly -SOI continues. Also, if this -SOI continues, the odds would favor El Nino coming back by fall.
 
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I wouldn’t get too excited yet about a TC showing up late on a Euro op as well as some ensemble members because that is during mid July, one of the quietest parts of the hurricane season on average. The TC looks to form from a front in the N Gulf similar to how Alicia of 1983 formed. But Alicia was in a much more clim. active period, August. The 12Z GFS also has something though its ensembles have very little.
 
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GaWx said:
I wouldn’t get too excited yet about a TC showing up late on a Euro op as well as some ensemble members because that is during mid July, one of the quietest parts of the hurricane season on average. The TC looks to form from a front in the N Gulf similar to how Alicia of 1983 formed. But Alicia was in a much more clim. active period, August. The 12Z GFS also has something though its ensembles have very little.
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An arguably more applicable analog is Arthur (2014). This storm on the ECMWF originates off of a giant MCS over midwest that plows southeastward towards the Gulf coast and interacts w/ a stalled frontal boundary. If a very strong mesolow can form and interact w/ the low-level convergence zone associated w/ said front over water, then it may be game on.
 
Webberweather53 said:
An arguably more applicable analog is Arthur (2014). This storm on the ECMWF originates off of a giant MCS over midwest that plows southeastward towards the Gulf coast and interacts w/ a stalled frontal boundary. If a very strong mesolow can form and interact w/ the low-level convergence zone associated w/ said front over water, then it may be game on.
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agree here... not saying anything will definitely form(I mean it is July like said earlier), but if something was gonna form this time of year, this is how

At least its something to watch, the TWO has been blank for weeks lol

also looks like Barbara is gonna die way before Hawaii, but it still was one of the strongest EPAC hurricanes this early the other day just shy of Cat 5
 
0z gfs system, Icon is trying also
gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_36.png
 
Euro starts to show something just south of the Panhandle at 144

Definitely a cyclone at 168

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Wow very bullish Euro run, near hurricane strength here

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Brent said:
The Euro went crazy yall large area of near hurricane force gusts well inland lol

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It has some wind forecast issues! I remember the last few tropical systems that affected my back yard, the Euro has the highest wind gusts forecast of all models and was pretty far off! But, all the models having something, is definitely interesting and I reall hope the moisture of any gulf entity , makes it up my way!
 
Brent said:
agree here... not saying anything will definitely form(I mean it is July like said earlier), but if something was gonna form this time of year, this is how

At least its something to watch, the TWO has been blank for weeks lol

also looks like Barbara is gonna die way before Hawaii, but it still was one of the strongest EPAC hurricanes this early the other day just shy of Cat 5
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NWS BMX ALSO SEES SOMETHING, HERE IS PART OF THE LONG TERM AFD

ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO IS THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO FORM OVER GEORGIA NEXT WEEK AS THE
STALLED SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WHERE THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO TAKE ON
SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF
THE LOW IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS, RANGING FROM TEXAS TO NORTH CAROLINA.
THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO SPECULATE IF
THERE MIGHT BE ANY IMPACTS TO ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO ORIGINATE FROM THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI.
 
accu35 said:
0z Icon
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Jimmy, were already losing it West! This is gonna go right up through AR and MO, and give them more flooding, while I bake! I knew being in the 10 day out bullseye on the Euro yesterday, was the KOD!?
 
The rich get richer, SMFH
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SSTs are boiling in the GOM rn, wind shear and lots of SAL around the MDR is preventing anything atm, but man if wind shear/SAL would go away, those water temps are supportive of a cane, a strong one at that, but ofc when there actually is one there’s other factors, but man there’s many areas along the Florida coast (gulf side) seeing 90+ water temps, which is a little unusual, don’t like that at all View attachment 20684View attachment 20685View attachment 20686
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If there that warm now what’s it going to be like in September?
 
Something to keep in mind. While the GOM is warm, especially the Eastern half, the heat content is still pretty meager as is the 26C isotherm so it would be hard as things stand currently to support a strong hurricane since mixing would be a big issue at this point in the season.

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The heat potential in the Eastern GOM is actually pretty low. 1562416437707.jpeg
 
snowlover91 said:
Something to keep in mind. While the GOM is warm, especially the Eastern half, the heat content is still pretty meager as is the 26C isotherm so it would be hard as things stand currently to support a strong hurricane since mixing would be a big issue at this point in the season.

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The heat potential in the Eastern GOM is actually pretty low. View attachment 20821
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Different setup, but the TCHP wasnt much more last year when we took a hit from a Cat 5. Really just depends on size and movement.
 
Brent said:
The euro is bullish again

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984 mb inland!!! Definitely Hurricane Barry on the Euro

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Definitely going to be something to watch. The Euro wants to keep it in the Gulf for a few days which can really make it a strong hurricane, but other models like the GFS just keep it a low pressure that stalls over land. Regardless, this is going to bring a big tropical inflow into the SE mainly along the Gulf coast.
 
Arcc said:
Different setup, but the TCHP wasnt much more last year when we took a hit from a Cat 5. Really just depends on size and movement.
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Yeah but that was later in the season and the 26C isotherm was a good bit deeper than it is right now. Forward speed and size of the wind field also plus a big role too. Thankfully if anything did develop and moved slow the mixing would definitely limit it at this time of the year.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah but that was later in the season and the 26C isotherm was a good bit deeper than it is right now. Forward speed and size of the wind field also plus a big role too. Thankfully if anything did develop and moved slow the mixing would definitely limit it at this time of the year.
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Bigger issue than either of those will probably be upwelling due to the potential storm being over or near shallower shelf waters.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake


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Webberweather53 said:
Bigger issue than either of those will probably be upwelling due to the potential storm being over or near shallower shelf waters.
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Yeah that’s what I meant by the mixing, the cooler waters below upwelling and cooling the surface down a bit. I don’t think we would see much if anything develops, especially if it’s a slow mover, but could see a decent TS if things came together.
 
Brent said:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake


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Track seems locked in stone!?
 
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