Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 12z Euro is a direct hit on the Big Island
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- tropical
Brent
Member
gonna be interesting to watch since the Atlantic is closed for now, I will be curious to see how close it is and how strong it is but it is a long way off
as much as the Atlantic has been busy the last few years, there's been a lot of Hawaii threats as well, most recently Lane last year which looked like a significant threat but weakened rapidly at the last minute
Fountainguy97
Member
Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.
Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.
This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.
Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.
This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.
Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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snowlover91
Member
Notice the WAM, that could lead to an active MDR season especially with BN SST's that could lead to slower development and higher land threat chances.
It will be interesting to see if this VI remains well below normal. As the chart shows, it has been that way all year and, if anything, it is going down even more in relation to normal. Based on the trend is your friend and past years showing a partial correlation to later in the year, I feel one should lean on the relatively inactive side for the tropical Atlantic this year. JB may actually be onto something.
Consistent with this, the SOI has been solidly negative despite SST's falling out of Nino territory for now. A -SOI has a pretty nice correlation with lower than normal activity in the trop ATL. Let's see if the predominantly -SOI continues. Also, if this -SOI continues, the odds would favor El Nino coming back by fall.
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Brent
Member
Its the day 9 euro but...
Snowflowxxl
Member
Glenn Burns posting Euro images of possible tropical impact lol
pcbjr
Member
Listening ... just don't wanna hear ...
I wouldn’t get too excited yet about a TC showing up late on a Euro op as well as some ensemble members because that is during mid July, one of the quietest parts of the hurricane season on average. The TC looks to form from a front in the N Gulf similar to how Alicia of 1983 formed. But Alicia was in a much more clim. active period, August. The 12Z GFS also has something though its ensembles have very little.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
An arguably more applicable analog is Arthur (2014). This storm on the ECMWF originates off of a giant MCS over midwest that plows southeastward towards the Gulf coast and interacts w/ a stalled frontal boundary. If a very strong mesolow can form and interact w/ the low-level convergence zone associated w/ said front over water, then it may be game on.
Brent
Member
agree here... not saying anything will definitely form(I mean it is July like said earlier), but if something was gonna form this time of year, this is how
At least its something to watch, the TWO has been blank for weeks lol
also looks like Barbara is gonna die way before Hawaii, but it still was one of the strongest EPAC hurricanes this early the other day just shy of Cat 5
Brent
Member
Hmmm
Brent
Member
Euro starts to show something just south of the Panhandle at 144
Definitely a cyclone at 168
Wow very bullish Euro run, near hurricane strength here
Definitely a cyclone at 168
Wow very bullish Euro run, near hurricane strength here
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Brent
Member
The Euro went crazy yall large area of near hurricane force gusts well inland lol
It has some wind forecast issues! I remember the last few tropical systems that affected my back yard, the Euro has the highest wind gusts forecast of all models and was pretty far off! But, all the models having something, is definitely interesting and I reall hope the moisture of any gulf entity , makes it up my way!
NWS BMX ALSO SEES SOMETHING, HERE IS PART OF THE LONG TERM AFD
ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO IS THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO FORM OVER GEORGIA NEXT WEEK AS THE
STALLED SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WHERE THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO TAKE ON
SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF
THE LOW IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS, RANGING FROM TEXAS TO NORTH CAROLINA.
THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO SPECULATE IF
THERE MIGHT BE ANY IMPACTS TO ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO ORIGINATE FROM THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI.