I thought Sept 10 was the peak.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
-
- Tags
- tropical
September is peak. NC is healing no east coast threats this year.
Brent
Member
yes but it usually starts around August 20th and runs til early October
in other news, EPAC about to crank up again and could be a Hawaii threat in the LR
Last edited:
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
There will be 3 more mainland US hits this hurricane season!
BHS1975
Member
I feel bad that I’m exited hearing that. I know that tropical systems are dangerous but man are they fun to track. Same for winter storms
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Subseasonal forcing is probably going to time this to where we get another CCKW or an MJO pulse around early September, a suppressed cckw will pass over the basin thru mid August and attempt to suppress activity vs normal.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s the spirit. Tracking tropical cyclones while arguably not quite as fun perhaps as winter storms, certainly offer a nice distraction during the summer- early-mid fall doldrums when it’s almost certainly a guarantee that none of us will even have the smallest chance of snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol I think he’s doing this to spite our interim dodo bird who said we are completely safe this year
pcbjr
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In addition to the eastern MDR, the 12z Euro ensemble is sniffing out some mischief around day 7-9 in the SW Atlantic from the wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles
Brent
Member
Henry2326
Member
Its way more fun when its not coming toward you....just sayin....
Henry2326
Member
ICON kept the same pattern again....since noon yesterday.
Cadi40
Member
I know it's early but what does the pattern look to be like as far as tracks go for the east coast? Is it favorable or unfavorable for recurvature?
The ICON did some weird things this run but looks to have slowed down and gone east from previous runs
Yeah, looks like the Energy on the Icon produced 2 lows. One moves very fast Guided by the Burmuda high. The other In the Exact same location as Tropical depression three weakening from the lesser Antilles as It moves along the Florida coast
unfavorable and statistically less.but can change quickly day to day
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our wave over the Antilles definitely looks good today, lots of deep convection continuously firing over the wave axis, certainly a good potential candidate to eventually do something in the Bahamas
Rule of thumb..if it’s not developed by the islands it will not in the graveyard of the eastern Caribbean. Will likely tone it down soon...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It wasn’t supposed to develop this early anyway. In any case since the wave is lifting northward across the Greater Antilles this week, that means the low level trade wind flow is weaker and so is the trade wind divergence.
Cary_Snow95
Member
If it does develop, is there really any concern of land impacts. Pattern seems to suggest a pretty easy recurve
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’ll probably recurve given the current pattern but we should still monitor it anyway just in case a different part of the wave axis (say the southern portion) develops over the eastern gulf or Cuba instead of the Bahamas for ex.
Brent
Member
Interesting cone
1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Euro looks SW this run. Should enhance the rain with the front
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cary_Snow95
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here we go again...
2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
pcbjr
Member
Last edited:
Damn tropics is waking up, CCKW definitely helping to get things going, it’s that time of year again, and idk if y’all notice this, but during a tropical storm/cane, even when the wind is calmer, the rain looks and feels different, smaller drops but a lot of them and constant, maybe from strong winds aloft and very high freezing levels ?
BufordWX
Member
Looks like this may be one to keep an eye on. Last few runs of the EURO have had this system developing toward the end of the run which should be taken with a grain of salt until we get closer since we all know how fast things can change but it is intriguing nonetheless. EURO looks to be curving it OTS at the end at least though.
Likely to make it much further west if it’s that far out in the extended showing a recurve there. Going to be a big wave maker with rip currents.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Probably be some shark bite deaths, but none from rip currents, with that track
This becomes a recurving weak Bahama Mama day 10 on the 12Z GFS fwiw. Way too close for comfort for the SE US at this still far point in the forecast, especially considering general E US troughing bias.
Last edited:
Completely agree and IF this develops will need to be watched closely... how many times over the last several years have we seen re-curves in the long range con't to shift west, west, west, heck some even ended up in the GOM. It's as real as the winter NW trend
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
NHC doesn't seem too impressed with anything developing, though. Well, at this moment at least.
Well bad news/good news with the Euro.... bad news it still develops that wave but the good news is it's also further east this run and ots
Long ways to go though, let's see if it even develops first.... Euro has some changes at D10 including a cutoff in the SE, those details will no doubt change and will effect the track if there is anything to track
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, seeing if anything even develops is the part we need to worry about first. We know how much the track can change from day to day.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Large-scale pattern is very solidly in favor of OTS if this goes north of the Greater Antilles, westerlies are deeper & further south, and w/ a big trough over the E US, the only way this would be a threat is a) the pattern has to change b) said system has to become tangled up w/ Hispaniola & Cuba (potentially weakening &/or pin-balling the wave axis further w) or c) it's so close to land when it begins to recurve that significant sensible impacts occur regardless. The basin-scale steering pattern to watch out for is one w/ a big ridge over New England, the Great Lakes, &/or SE Canada, we essentially have the exact opposite being forecast in week 2.