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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Large-scale pattern is very solidly in favor of OTS if this goes north of the Greater Antilles, westerlies are deeper & further south, and w/ a big trough over the E US, the only way this would be a threat is a) the pattern has to change b) said system has to become tangled up w/ Hispaniola & Cuba (potentially weakening &/or pin-balling the wave axis further w) or c) it's so close to land when it begins to recurve that significant sensible impacts occur regardless. The basin-scale steering pattern to watch out for is one w/ a big ridge over New England, the Great Lakes, &/or SE Canada, we essentially have the exact opposite being forecast in week 2.
Click to expand...
Very well written, Webb. Thanks!
If anyone wants to see some visuals of some of what Webb is referring to, you might look here ... https://spaghettimodels.com/ (which is also in your Wiki in both General Weather and Tropical Weather) ...
 
East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.
1CE35A09-8BB4-46B0-A276-A252AA5BFF77.png
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
BufordWX said:
East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
Long way out but ... If it stays south of shear and avoids ... well heck, it's 60% nada ... sleep well
 
What!? The newer GFS doesn't blow this up into a cat 5 monster with 880 mb pressure!? AMAZING!!

In all seriousness it's a good thing that it's more realistic for once. With that being said I sure hope it doesn't get close. Too far out to know where it's going for sure, but since the SER isn't as much of a thing this year we probably will keep it out of the Gulf.
 
Formation chance through 5 days on the far east storm is 50 now
 
BufordWX said:
East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.
View attachment 21332
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...

And that path is usually not good for SC and NC.
 
South Carolina you’d think is due for a hurricane. They haven’t seen a major hit since Hugo. So really it’s a matter of time!


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A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Little to no development of the wave is expected for
the next few days while it moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend and a tropical depression could form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Definitely solid conditions for this thing to develop based off the gfs, high pressure to its east helping to ventilation the storm on its east side, and also on the west side the trough is acting to ventilate the storm 34046543-6442-4903-81E2-7013BFB47185.jpeg
 
Old GFS gets dangerously close to Florida and would likely hit the Carolinas if its this far west

gfs-legacy_mslp_wind_watl_37.pnggfs-legacy_mslp_wind_watl_41.png
 
Definitely a lot to iron out still.

9423015655f78a37768daecb51e629f5.jpg


df2d7cef335e3367b1545415a88b0e4f.jpg



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Red circle coming

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Brent said:
Red circle coming

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
:mad:
 
I do believe we get a cat 4 or 5 with this. And I believe it will go out to see. But it might come close to the coast. How close remains to be seen got to iron that out


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I definitely wouldn't go to sleep on the wave trailing 96L either, a recent SCATSAT pass (fwiw) showed a pretty formidable low-mid level circulation and the wave axis is undoubtedly sharper and the wave envelope is smaller than 96L, making short-term tropical cyclogenesis more likely imho vs 96L. Thereafter it may be a different story.

GOES16_1km_vis_201908011155_0.50_24.25_-55.75_-9.25_vis1_ltng16_ltng17_hgwy_warn_ascata_ascatb...gif
EA47uQuXoAEKXud.jpeg
 
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