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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

BirdManDoomW said:
Mostly yes unless something develops inside the GOM or BOC. Don’t expect a hurricane from the Caribbean or Atlantic entering the GOM this year at all.
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Ok, for one I'm not saying your wrong but I dont buy this for one minute. We may not see that many entering the GOM from the Atlantic and through the Caribbean, but it only takes one to sneak in and that can definitely happen and prolly will. Hope not, but could
 
Brent said:
Euro appears to form something inland lol 1012 at the coast

View attachment 21150
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LOL!! There has been some hints lately from the GFS with a low trying to hang around the gulf coast area. Not saying it will happen, but this looks about like when Barry was showing on the models this far out when I started to noticing it.
 
I told ya I smelled something in the gulf
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
 
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
28 (4).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
View attachment 21165
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Not surprisingly, as the CCKW encroaches on the NE Pacific basin, there's at least 2 disturbances already with a medium chance for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 5 days. It'll be intriguing to see how the Atlantic responds to this Kelvin Wave in about 1.5-2 weeks.

two_pac_5d0.png
 
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
 
Cadi40 said:
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
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Nothing rare just helps pinpoint a time frame. But heading into August it doesn’t take a nerd to know we will see activity slowly increase in response to pacific activity too.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Nothing rare just helps pinpoint a time frame. But heading into August it doesn’t take a nerd to know we will see activity slowly increase in response to pacific activity too.
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No nerds, just birds!
 
Cadi40 said:
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
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A convectively coupled kelvin wave is essentially a “super cluster” of convection that propagates eastward across the tropics at a speed of 10-15 m/s although this varies significantly in accordance with interference from ENSO, topography, & the intensity of the wave (more intense kelvin waves move more slowly because convective heating in the ascending part of the wave offsets adiabatic cooling, thermally damping the kelvin wave which actually slows it down. It’ll be about 1.5 to perhaps 2 weeks before this wave passes the Atlantic and Africa, which could provide a momentary window for tropical cyclogenesis. Otherwise, once the wave passes Africa, the easterly waves triggered and amplified by the CCKW will need to be monitored a few weeks removed from its passage (I.e. about a month from now) when they enter the Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
A convectively coupled kelvin wave is essentially a “super cluster” of convection that propagates eastward across the tropics at a speed of 10-15 m/s although this varies significantly in accordance with interference from ENSO, topography, & the intensity of the wave (more intense kelvin waves move more slowly because convective heating in the ascending part of the wave offsets adiabatic cooling, thermally damping the kelvin wave which actually slows it down. It’ll be about 1.5 to perhaps 2 weeks before this wave passes the Atlantic and Africa, which could provide a momentary window for tropical cyclogenesis. Otherwise, once the wave passes Africa, the easterly waves triggered and amplified by the CCKW will need to be monitored a few weeks removed from its passage (I.e. about a month from now) when they enter the Atlantic
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Webb,
Put this into a PM to me on PDF or some other format; it really needs to go into Wiki>Tropical!
Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
View attachment 21165
Click to expand...
FYI, Ventrice said this kelvin wave is so strong that his map ran out of contours lmao. Yikes
 
Um we have 94L out of nowhere apparently lol I've seen zero support for a storm on the models but who knows...

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Central Bahamas
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development,
they are expected to become a little more conducive over the next
few days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and the southern
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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